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Some people are misunderstanding the nature of this threat. IMHO, this is not a strategic all out 'toe to toe' nuclear conflict...which China will lose, and lose badly.

This is an asymmetric high stakes game of 'chicken'.

It starts with conventional weapons and involves trading lots of their low cost surface ships or submarines for several of our extremely costly nuclear carriers...which are critical to our capability to project power.

Then it moves to a limited nuclear exchange trading several cities in the US for several in China. China is betting that we would not launch a preemptive all out nuclear assault over Taiwan.

I agree with you up to the "limited nuclear exchange."

It is ludicrous in the extreme to think that a nation like China WOULDN'T see the effects of taking out a good number of carriers and COULDN'T do it if they said 'damn the cost.' However I consider it likley that ANY nation that unleashes the atomic fire against America will be destroyed utterly by the same means. The reason being: Why would we want to live in a world with a nation that is considers atomic weapons something to be resorted to so easily?

I believe that "limited nuclear exchange" isn't on our list of tolarable things. It was MAD that prevented ANY firing of nukes during the cold war.