I personally looked at every single model track from from every single computer model the entire life of Katrina, and every single forecast track, plotted on a map.
And I have software (Stormtrakker) that allows me to basically play a "movie" of the NHC forecast track and all the model tracks over time.
The NHC forecast landfall was moved to just west of the MS/AL border at 5PM on Friday and moved to New Orleans at 11PM on Friday. That's a fact. You're flat out wrong if you believe otherwise.
And like many people you completely misunderstand the strike probability tables; they only extend out 72 hours; they are not an indication of FINAL overall probability of a landfall, just the probability the storm will be within a certain number of miles of a given point WITHIN 72 HOURS...and they're based on a standard pattern around the NHC forecast track; the strike probs aren't done by hand or anything.
I completely understand strike probability tables. Not to worry. But thanks for the vote of confidence.
The question I posed remains the same for those who want to play the blame game: At what point do you order a mandatory evacuation of a major city if you are in charge?