I was suprised to hear on the news yesterday that the Strategic Reserve could completely replace Gulf area production for over a year. President Bush has been buidling up the reserves since 9-11. They then went on to explain that the real problem, as you point out, is lost refinery capacity.
Well, the cynical (leftie) side will say "yes, Bush will sell off the SPR so he can refill it at inflated prices to help his oil buddies like he did when he filled it up at the beginning of his presidency"... but we have to recall that Clinton dumped "emergency" assets to help his re-election--even more than was used for the Gulf War!
Still, the refinery capacity is what bottlenecks, and there are many other complexities that explain that (like why we haven't built any more refineries!)