if NO doesn't flood as you (and the forecasters and modelers) are describing (let's hope it does not), what that will tell us is that the odds of a storm doing this, is almost zero. In other words, if this storm does not flood NO, then the odds of any storm having the exact conditions needed to flood NO, is almost zero. All these predictions and models we saw about what the levees could not withstand, will have been shown to be exaggerated.
its too early to tell right now.
sw
Additionally, there could be delays in flooding and there will eventually be a large outflow from the Mississippi for a few days after. Flooding could also occur a long ways inland along the Mississippi. There will be flooding and local rescues everywhere this storm goes.
This statement is valid for today.
Unfortunately, the Mississippi River is not static, and brings more silt every day, so eventually the storm needed to breach the levees will be much smaller than what would be required today.
The worst case scenario has never actually happened in New Orleans -- yet -- despite the fact that we've been recording history in the area since the French settled in the area three hundred years ago.
I hypothesize that all the marshland/swampland acts pretty much like dry land in breaking up the storms as they get close. So a storm would have to remain over water to really inundate the area -- come in through the Rigolets and the lakes.
If this storm jogs to the west after coming a bit more north, that would be bad for the Parish of Orleans.
But Plaquemines and Slidell are going to be flooded.