Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part VII

NOAA - NHC ^ | 28 August 2005 | NOAA - NHC

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous Hurricane Katrina is bearing down on the North Central Gulf of Mexico and New Orleans metro area. New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin conceded that as many as 100,000 inner-city residents didn't have the means to leave and an untold number of tourists were stranded by the closing of the airport. At this hour, people are still filing into the Superdome after security screening for weapons and contraband. National Guard have brought in 360,000 MRE (meals ready to eat) to feed the estimated 30,000 storm refugees in the Superdome.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Buoy Data Florida

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part VI
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part V
Hurricane Katrina, Live Thread, Part IV
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
New Orleans Web Cams Loads of web cam sites here. The sites have been very slow due to high traffic
New Orleans Music Online Couldn't resist--love that jazz
Golden Triangle Weather Page Nice Beaumont weather site with lots of tracks and graphics
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:

Fully-linked version of the live feeds (just in case a few people don't want to first open up WMP to cut-and-paste) -

WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham (WMP) - mms://a1256.l1289835255.c12898.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/

1256/12898/v0001/reflector:35255
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38202.asx
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm
WKRG-TV/DT

Mobile (WMP) - mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast

.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_aug262005_1435_95518 WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans via WESH-TV/DT Orlando - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38843.asx

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[Jrabbit]

Whoever the reporter was that was just on Fox was saying good news! The city has been spared! What was he talking about? He was messing around with gutter water. He looked drunk..

[Flyer]

sat loop keeps giving me waves of nausea

NauseaNurse?

;-]

[NautiNurse]

make that 35 miles from the coast...sorry about that

[USAF0021]

Look at my post #1929 :) I was able to find some data on that.

[jeffers]

154 mph max sustained, 77 miles south of land at 0200, west side of eyewall looks to pass over DT NO, 48 miles wide, landfall around 0830.

[DB]

I think when they talk distances, it's to the center of the eye, not to the eye wall. So they eye wall is about 15 miles closer.

[Jrabbit]

Did Orlando Salinas just say "shuck and jive"? I need to go to sleep...

[Uncle Ike]

FWIW...

According to CNBC Europe, NYMEX (oil) futures now at ^$2.97. Last time I heard (yesterday afternoon) it was ^$4.00.

Not as bad as I was afraid it was gonna be.

[bt_dooftlook]

TWC is indicating the storm is weakening as of 2:28 CDT due to dry air ingestion in the NE quadrant; evidenced by the growing asymmetry of the storm and the banding appearing on the west side...

[NautiNurse]

there is a post above that says 35 miles from Sulfur Point. Where is that?

[Pirogue Captain]

"Amazing. I wonder, if NO is destroyed, will it be worthwhile rebuilding in that location? Seems like a nightmare waiting for the right disaster to strike."



IMHO, it HAST to be rebuilt, and as close to the current specs as possible, using as much of the original material as possible. I'm not talking about the levees. They will need huge improvements. New Orleans is an important piece of Americana. Who on earth would want to go to a New New Orleans built to Disneyland specs? Not me...

[Ellesu]

Thank You.

[Fishtalk]

I have seen those levees

Greetings from a dolt in Delaware.

Who has never, alas, seen a levee or even understands just what they are.

But I've got a million questions about Louisiana with all the hype. Perhaps some of you experts about the area can enlighten me.

First, why on earth would anybody build a city BELOW sea level?

I've certainly heard this factoid bandied about these past few days so hey, I must ask.

And why is New Orleans below sea level? The city is a "bowl" as I understand it.

Finally, what the hell are levees and how did they come about? I've heard the song about going down to the levees, of course. So how does one go down to a levee and what does one do when they get there? Is a levee something you can walk on?

Also, I've been doing some thinking about the future after this storm. I think there's going to be a lot of finger pointing. I dread to think that if that Superdome doesn't hold what the fallout will be. Imagine if the superdome collapses after the government directed people to it.

It also occurs to me that NO must be a city filled with homeless and the poor. At least I judge by the problems they've had with evacuations. While all cities have this sort of population, is it worth in NO?

Feedback appreciated because hey, if you don't ask you won't find out.

[Ellesu]

Thanks, any damage so far reported?

[silentknight]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 309 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... HANCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD...BAY ST. LOUIS * UNTIL 345 AM CDT * AT 304 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES EAST OF BAY ST. LOUIS...MOVING WEST AT 55 MPH. * THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR... DIAMONDHEAD AND KILN BY 315 AM CDT

[DB]

From this image: http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/2xg1_ir_anim.gif

It looks to me that the eye wall is at land (string of islands?).

[NautiNurse]

reports have been sketchy thus far--except she is taking out every bouy in her path.

[spunkets]

"Don't they usually get hurricane remnants though?"

This ones going through IN on it's curved way up to PA... See projected path

[Hank Rearden]

I wonder, if NO is destroyed, will it be worthwhile rebuilding in that location?

Heat, humidity, gigantic bugs, crocs, hurricanes - who wouldn't want to enjoy all that?

And then there's the criminals, political corruption (same thing, actually) and aboveground graves . . . . . . .

[newzjunkey]

80%? That sounds outrageous! I'm not familiar with NO but when I see and hear these campfire scary stories I wonder if it's remotely reality of if it's just churning up fear when it isn't warranted. So you can see why I'm asking your opinion on this.

Won't we be informed for rebuilding purposes whether modern techniques work? It's the same kind of thing with FL. As a Left-Coaster I'm just burned out on hurricanes and the constant rebuilding demands. And in this case if there *is* a serious loss of life I'll be demanding to know *why* more wasn't done sooner to evacuate when this scenario had been studied in great detail. Is it that we're going to find out there are just "acceptable losses" in the thousands or tens of thousands? This is very telling when it comes to terrorism and an ability or lack of ability to evacuate people on a large scale. At this point, having had days to prepare for Katrina's landfall it appears we're screwed if an event with less warning strikes be it terror or an earthquake or perhaps even an eruption.

Do you believe the media is scaring itself and us silly or will the damage be on the scale of Andrew's 22 billion? Is it realistic or media generated hype? At this point, I can't tell. This hurricane thing is way outside my experience.

Katrina doesn't seem to be doing much except providing rain. Do we just wait for dawn? Is the worst over?