The intrinsic cost of producing an ounce of gold is ~$175 and falling rapidly (new production is around $125 per oz). One could argue that the spot price, which tends to reflect cartel pricing unless the central banks are dumping stock, does not reflect its true and reasonable value.
I've seen you make that assertion elsewhere on FR. Can you provide a web link for your claims. If true that implies that there is downward pressure on the price as new stocks are brought on line.
Of course there is upward pressure from a number of places. These include India and China which have larger numbers of middle class and rich who historically like gold (jewelry and coin), the needs of the two new gold backed indexes (not sure what the fractional reserve is on GLD and IAU, but it's high) the E-Gold online currency (which is a 100% reserve currency) and the possible needs for the gold brokers who have had gold lent to them by central banks to cover their short positions as prices begin to rise.
I think it's been pretty well established that the central banks (including the Fed) hate gold and have secretly (it slipped out) been selling to keep the price down for a few years now. That can't go on indefinately, either.
(The latest plan it to raid the IMF.)
That's assuming no 'nuclear' events, like large OPEC members wanting payment in gold for their oil, or a linkage of some currencies to gold for foreign exchange as Bretton Woods provided for prior to Nixon's change. These things are all being discussed in the Islamic world. Google "gold dinar" for more info.