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To: tortoise

I've seen you make that assertion elsewhere on FR. Can you provide a web link for your claims. If true that implies that there is downward pressure on the price as new stocks are brought on line.

Of course there is upward pressure from a number of places. These include India and China which have larger numbers of middle class and rich who historically like gold (jewelry and coin), the needs of the two new gold backed indexes (not sure what the fractional reserve is on GLD and IAU, but it's high) the E-Gold online currency (which is a 100% reserve currency) and the possible needs for the gold brokers who have had gold lent to them by central banks to cover their short positions as prices begin to rise.

I think it's been pretty well established that the central banks (including the Fed) hate gold and have secretly (it slipped out) been selling to keep the price down for a few years now. That can't go on indefinately, either.

(The latest plan it to raid the IMF.)

That's assuming no 'nuclear' events, like large OPEC members wanting payment in gold for their oil, or a linkage of some currencies to gold for foreign exchange as Bretton Woods provided for prior to Nixon's change. These things are all being discussed in the Islamic world. Google "gold dinar" for more info.


126 posted on 08/25/2005 12:08:24 PM PDT by Jack Black
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To: Jack Black
I've seen you make that assertion elsewhere on FR. Can you provide a web link for your claims. If true that implies that there is downward pressure on the price as new stocks are brought on line.

A prospectus for any of the major gold mining outfits will have this information, as will the government office that keeps track of these in major gold producing jurisdictions (e.g. Nevada). The cost of production has been declining for years because the models used for finding high concentrations have improved significantly over the last fifteen years. The gold mining companies adjust output to maximize the valuation of their assets (the reserves); that the market sags to a price only marginally over the cost of production when gold is dumped onto the market by non-mining sources shows the extent to which the mining companies control the price through supply manipulation. When the price is too low, they simply stop producing. Unlike many other industries, there is very little overhead or ramp up lag time to a mining site and the costs scale with production which makes this financially feasible. Because of this, they prefer to exploit only the most profitable sites even though they control a vast number of other sites that they will probably never exploit.

A lot of the new development sites are in South America, where the estimates for production costs are as low as $100 per ounce at some sites and most average around $125. The estimated production cost of new sites in Nevada are dropping as well, though still high by global standards (Nevada Dept of Mines reports ~$190/oz statewide average currently). I have some interest in this because I own extensive property and mineral rights on top of a new Barrick find in the old gold fields of Nevada that is currently being characterized but has not been announced.

144 posted on 08/25/2005 1:27:38 PM PDT by tortoise (All these moments lost in time, like tears in the rain.)
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