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Exit Strategy-"To build an E/S in advance, leaders would literally have to know the unknowable."
military.com ^ | August 12, 2005 | Jeff Edwards

Posted on 08/15/2005 7:28:35 PM PDT by Former Military Chick

As I've said in earlier columns, I have no particular skill for predicting the future. I discover the future the same way as most other mortals: one second at a time. But I can predict certain things with uncanny accuracy.

For instance, if I send my teenaged son to clean the front bathroom, I know exactly how events are going to transpire. He'll grunt, stomp around a little (just in case I don't realize that cleaning the bathroom is a serious imposition), and eventually gather up a random selection of rags and cleaning products and head down the hall toward the bathroom. He'll spend a few minutes generating industrious-sounding noises, and then things will get quiet.

At this point, my psychic abilities kick into overdrive, and I can predict exactly what he will say next. In fact, I know what we're both going to say, nearly word-for-word.

“Dad, can you come check the bathtub?”

“What's wrong with the bathtub?”

“Nothing. I mean I cleaned it.”

“Good. Why do I need to check it?”

"To see if it's clean enough.”

Look at it. Does it look clean?”

Him: “How do you tell?”

“What color is it supposed to be?”

“White.”

“Is it white?”

"Uhhhhh… not really.”

“Is it clean?”

“I guess not.”

This pronouncement is followed by a sigh that rattles the windows. He spends another two minutes making industrious-sounding noises, and then…

“Dad, can you come check the bathtub?”

“What's wrong with the bathtub?”

And the cycle begins again.

It would be much easier for me to simply check the bathtub myself. I could save myself a great deal of frustration. For that matter, I could clean the bathtub myself. It takes all of five minutes to do a thorough job. But I bite my tongue, and remind myself that this isn't about the bathroom, it's about preparing our son for life.

When he finally emerges from the bathroom, looking bedraggled and generally put upon, we have to have the talk . The contents of that conversation are as predictable as the tub dialogue. I'll spare you the interplay and cut to the central issue: the job is done when it's finished. The job is done when it's right.

You can apply the same standard to anything. Suppose you hire someone to repaint your house. When is the job done? When he gets tired? When he runs out of paint? When he discovers that painting a house is harder than it looks? No, the job is done when the house is painted and the cleanup is finished. It's that simple.

Would you settle for anything less? Would you accept half a root canal from your dentist? How about half a haircut, or most of a car wash? Of course not. Anyone can look at a half-painted house and see that there is still work to be done.

That leaves me wondering how people can get so wrapped up over the lack of a formal Exit Strategy for Iraq. I've heard it at least a hundred times over the past two years: “America got into Iraq without a plan for getting out.”

This line of thought began to surface almost immediately following the onset of military action in March of 2003. U.S. forces had been in Iraq for less than two weeks when the word ‘ Quagmire ' began appearing in the media. The Vietnam comparisons were cropping up even before that, shortly followed by those two deadly words – Exit Strategy.

The implication attached to those words is clear. No government should ever enter a military conflict without a comprehensive blueprint for getting out. Buried in that idea lies the assumption that the master plan ought to include a detailed timeline. The sheer orderliness of the concept is so seductive that Senators, journalists, and private citizens are drawn to it in droves.

If we were talking about an undertaking with a high degree of predictability, that might be a reasonable demand. But fighting a war is not like building a house. You can not plan for every contingency, for the simple reason that you can't even identify every contingency. In any competition, your adversary will do his or her best to hit you from an entirely unexpected angle. This is a truism in everything from chess to tennis, but it's doubly true in warfare.

In ‘ The Art of War,' Sun Tzu had this to say: “ All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.”

Even a cursory examination of insurgent tactics in Iraq shows that our enemies are in a constant state of evolution. The attacks our military personnel face today are much different that the attacks of a year ago. Our adversaries change and adapt, just as we do. This has always been true. In light of that knowledge, the very idea of mapping an entire military conflict from start to finish seems naive at best, and ludicrous at worst.

To build a detailed Exit Strategy in advance, military and political leaders would literally have to know the unknowable. For similar reasons, it's impossible to build a meaningful timeline. We can gauge the readiness of the Iraqi Government and security forces. We can make intelligent estimates as to the end strength and activity of the insurgents. But we can't predict when they will strike, or how long they will keep up the fight.

A true Exit Strategy would either have to perfectly predict the plans of the insurgents, or ignore their plans entirely. The first is impossible, and the second is suicidal.

Even if we could create a comprehensive Exit Strategy and timeline, we could never make them public. As soon as we set an ironclad date for withdrawal of forces, we have communicated the limits of our endurance to our enemies. We've given them a date to mark on their calendar -- hold out until this date, and you win.

Imagine how well that idea would work for law enforcement. “ Attention Bank Robbers! This is Special Agent Peterson of the Federal Bureau of Investigation. We intend to pursue you until two-thirty p.m., next Tuesday afternoon. If you have not surrendered or been captured by that date, we will cease all attempts to apprehend you! ”

We don't need an Exit Strategy in Iraq for the same reason that firefighters don't need one to tackle a burning building. They go home when the fire is out. They don't roll up the hoses until the job is done.

We need a plan of action, not an Exit Strategy. We need a strategy for achieving the objective. Luckily, we've got one. We've had it since March 19, 2003. Assist the Iraqi people in forming stable and secure self-government.

On July 21, 2005, a scant few weeks ago, Congress reiterated that strategy when it voted against early withdrawal from Iraq. Attached as an amendment to the Department of State appropriations bill, the resolution stated that the U.S. should not leave Iraq until national security and foreign policy goals relating to a free and stable Iraq have been achieved.

That's pretty cut and dried. The house is painted when it's painted. The fire is out when it's out. The bathtub is clean when it's clean. The job is finished when the objectives have been met. Anything else is either a blind guess, or a call to leave the job half complete. © 2005 Jeff Edwards. All opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of Military.com.


TOPICS: Editorial; News/Current Events; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: exitstrategy; iraq; jeffedwards; jihad; jihadists; oif; timetable; troopwithdrawal; waronterror; wot; wwiv
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To: No Longer Free State
We have an exit strategy. Our strategy is to kill as many terrorists as we can while training the Iraqis to take over their own security and to help them develop a representative government while we're doing all the other heavy lifting. When they're ready to run their own country, we'll exit. What part of that don't you understand, Senator Biden?

What is important to understand is that this is truly a life and death issue for the United States of America. The Cold War (including Vietnam) was really just a series of "proxy wars" between America and the Soviets, neither side would be destroyed if we pulled back at certain points. And Reagan finally understood that we could spend the Soviets into collapse.

But none of this is true with the terrorists, we must fight them head-to-head. And we must remember that they have been preparing for this war for 13 centuries, the memory of the medieval Crusades is still alive with them. But the first notion the West had that Islam was a threat were the wars between the Arabs and Israelis, yet even then Americans never felt there was a threat. Jimmy Carter's willingness to abandon American interests in the Middle East gave the Islamofascists the determination to pursue larger targets. The War on Terrorism DID NOT BEGIN on September 11, 2001, this was just the day when many Americans first realized that it was a war we could no longer pretend wasn't there. If we "exit" the Islamofascists will become even bolder, and they will not stop until we are all dead.

21 posted on 08/16/2005 5:28:47 PM PDT by wagglebee ("We are ready for the greatest achievements in the history of freedom." -- President Bush, 1/20/05)
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To: Former Military Chick; Choose Ye This Day; Lando Lincoln; quidnunc; .cnI redruM; Valin; yonif; ...

Nailed It!
Moral Clarity BUMP !

This ping list is not author-specific for articles I'd like to share. Some for the perfect moral clarity, some for provocative thoughts; or simply interesting articles I'd hate to miss myself. (I don't have to agree with the author all 100% to feel the need to share an article.) I will try not to abuse the ping list and not to annoy you too much, but on some days there is more of the good stuff that is worthy of attention. You can see the list of articles I pinged to lately  on  my page.
You are welcome in or out, just freepmail me (and note which PING list you are talking about).
Besides this one, I keep 2 separate PING lists for my favorite authors Victor Davis Hanson and Orson Scott Card.  (I stopped keeping separate ping lists for David Warren and Lee Harris. I'll ping to their articles when warranted through this list. )

22 posted on 08/19/2005 4:39:54 AM PDT by Tolik
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To: Tolik

I was hoping you saw this.


23 posted on 08/19/2005 7:30:24 AM PDT by Choose Ye This Day (I lost my copy of the PNAC Neo-Con agenda. Can someone fax me one?)
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To: Choose Ye This Day
Yes, thanks for the heads-up. I am back to the Internet world for a short time, then back to the Internet withdrawal again.
24 posted on 08/19/2005 8:59:43 AM PDT by Tolik
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To: Former Military Chick

Thanks FMC. Excellent essay.


25 posted on 08/19/2005 9:04:28 AM PDT by RottiBiz
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To: Tolik

I was internet-deprived for a month, when we moved here from Minnesota. It was painful. I'm finally up-and-running with DSL now.


26 posted on 08/19/2005 10:40:04 AM PDT by Choose Ye This Day (I lost my copy of the PNAC Neo-Con agenda. Can someone fax me one?)
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To: Former Military Chick
Every week, 2000 Americans die in accidents, 600 take their own lives and 300 are murdered. All are preventable at some level of cost or effort. Most are economically preventable. We just don't care enough, and are willing to accept the deaths in exchange for the convenience of, say, not using an alcohol interlock on all cars, etc. Our military deaths are as tragic as our domestic deaths, just not as preventable, and we incur those deaths to try to avoid or delay the eventuality of millions of deaths. I'd give my life to make a difference in the safety of millions; it would be an honor.

Hey, wait a minute, isn't that what most all of our military families are telling us?

We need an exit strategy when the job is done. Reality? It will never be done.
27 posted on 08/19/2005 10:49:46 AM PDT by anton
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To: kenavi; DTogo
1944 you meant?

He said Truman, so it would have to be '45. Otherwise he should have said Roosevelt.

28 posted on 08/21/2005 7:13:40 PM PDT by Excuse_Me (How small, of all that human hearts endure, that part which laws and kings can cause or cure. --S.J.)
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To: Excuse_Me

I forgot to mention about that. Thanks.


29 posted on 08/22/2005 2:59:57 PM PDT by kenavi ("Remember, your fathers sacrificed themselves without need of a messianic complex." Ariel Sharon)
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