based on the latest, it seems to be tracking slightly to the noth of the 2nd forecast point on the sat loop, but certainly not north enough to bring this to Texas.
With the strengthening ridge, this likely won't hit Texas unless a trough sticks around longer than expected or one drops down we don't foresee. I see landfall a bit further north...20-30 miles...than the NHC track, but still in Mexico. Of course, until it hits the western Gulf, we won't really know just how much the ridge will impact her movement.
It looks like it is going to NAIL Cozumel, one of the few places in Mexico that I like.
she hasn't shown much sign of turning more westerly yet..