Posted on 07/16/2005 1:33:53 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricanes Emily and Dennis are the strongest July storms in recorded history for the Atlantic hurricane basin...
Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:
NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, 5P, etc. ET.
NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET
Storm Floater IR Loop Little boxes at top of image: lat/lon, and Trop Fcst Pts--click 'em.
Caribbean Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)
Storm Floater Sat Both loop and latest image
Jamaica Weather Has a few still radar images
Cancun Radar Very Slow Load
Another Cancun Radar another Very Slow Load
Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the NHC 3 day and 5 day historic track positions
Global Satellite Imagery Amazing view of the world (Broadband)
Water Vapor SatelliteAnother colorful loop for broadband
Central Florida Hurricane Center offers a variety of info
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure |
Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (weak) |
75 - 95 mph 65 - 82 kts 33 - 42 m/s |
> 28.94 in. Hg > 980.0 mb > 97.7 kPa |
4.0 - 5.0 ft. 1.2 - 1.5 m |
minimal damage to vegetation |
| 2 (moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts 43 - 49 m/s |
28.50 - 28.93 in. Hg 965.1 - 979.7 mb 96.2 - 97.7 kPa |
6.0 - 8.0 ft. 1.8 - 2.4 m |
moderate damage to houses |
| 3 (strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 113 kts 50 - 58 m/s |
27.91 - 28.49 in. Hg 945.1 - 964.8 mb 96.2 - 97.7 kPa |
9.0 - 12.0 ft. 2.7 - 3.7 m |
extensive damage to small buildings |
| 4 (very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 114 - 135 kts 59 - 69 m/s |
27.17 - 27.90 in. Hg 920.1 - 944.8 mb 91.7 - 94.2 kPa |
13.0 - 18.0 ft. 3.9 - 5.5 m |
extreme structural damage |
| 5 (devastating) |
> 155 mph > 135 kts > 70 m/s |
< 27.17 in Hg < 920.1 mb < 91.7 kPa |
> 18.0 ft > 5.5 m |
catastrophic building failures possible |
Am I the only one up at this hour? All this activity and everyone id asleep?
I'm awake! The news channels are all asleep with no live coverage whatsoever, and that sucks IMO.
Waving "howdy ya'll"...I'm still here, too. I've been off playing with weather links.
Good morning!
Do you have a link for the most up to date image of Miss Emily? It looks to me that she has kept herself in pretty good shape, with her northeast section staying over water just a wee bit.
Went to bed early so I could monitor this beast this morning.Looking to see what she will do once she comes into the BOC. Looks like she is holding together over land right now.
She is keeping herself in amazingly good shape. She appears to remain strong.
I've got the weather underground radar link open. Nothing seems to update very often. http://www.wunderground.com/global/Region/g1/2xIRSatellite.html
Also watching this loop. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
This loop has the overlays, including forecast path. It appears to me she is tracking a bit north of the predicted path.
If anyone has better radar link, please post them.
...Emily begins to weaken over the Yucatan Peninsula...hurricane watches issued along the western Gulf Coast.
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from Cabo Rojo northward to the Texas border.
At 5 am EDT...0900z...a Hurricane Watch has been issued along the south Texas coast from Brownsville to Baffin Bay.
A Hurricane Watch is now in effect from Cabo Rojo Mexico northward to Baffin Bay Texas. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal northward to Cabo Catoche...then westward and southward to Campeche...including Cozumel and the islas mujeres. Preparations to protect life and property should have already been completed.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Belize from Belize City northward to the Belize-Mexico border. This warning will likely be discontinued later this morning.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located over the Yucatan Peninsula near latitude 20.6 north... longitude 88.0 west or about 70 miles... 115 km... west of Cozumel Mexico and about 120 miles... 195 km...east-southeast of Progreso Mexico.
Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph ...28 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Emily is expected to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico near midday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph...175 km/hr...with higher gusts. Emily is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Additional weakening is expected while Emily is over land.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles...240 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb...28.41 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding on the Caribbean side of the Yucatan Peninsula will be diminishing during the day today.
Rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula with isolated maximum amounts up to 12 inches.
Repeating the 5 am EDT position...20.6 N... 88.0 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds...110 mph. Minimum central pressure... 962 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 8 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 am EDT.
Forecaster Franklin
the eyewall of Hurricane Emily passed over Cozumel a few hours ago. The Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft overflew the island during the eyewall passage...at 05z...and reported peak flight level winds of 124 kt. At 0322z...they reported 141 kt. Landfall occurred near 0630z just north of Tulum. The reconnaissance data suggest that Emily likely made landfall as a category four hurricane with maximum winds near 115 kt. No observations have yet been received from the landfall area.
Emily will be spending roughly 9 hours over the Yucatan...but is likely to maintain hurricane strength during this passage. A weak upper-level low over the Bay of Campeche may be contributing some southwesterly shear over Emily...but global models suggest that this upper low will move west-southwestward and weaken within 12-24 hours. This would result in an upper-tropospheric environment conducive to strengthening. Therefore...re-intensification is likely once the center moves back over the waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico. Just how much Emily restrengthens is partly dependent on the extent that the inner core is disrupted after passing over northern Yucatan.
The initial motion...295/15...is about the same as before...and the official track forecast is also basically unchanged. NOAA and Air Force Reserve aircraft conducted synoptic surveillance missions in the Gulf and northwestern Caribbean last night. Dropsonde data from these missions show a mid-level ridge solidly in place across the northern Gulf. Global models indicate that this ridge could weaken a little over the next 12-18 hours with the passage of a mid-latitude short wave to the north. The upper low in the Bay of Campeche could also result in a slight rightward deflection of the track. However...both of these influences should diminish in another 24 hours or so and the track should then Bend back toward the left. The GFS...which has performed well with this storm...is on the southern side of the guidance envelope...while the NOGAPS is on the northern egde. The official forecast is in good agreement with the FSU superensemble...which in fact has outperformed both the NOGAPS and GFS with this cyclone. None of the Standard guidance shows a landfall in south Texas at this time. Nevertheless...given that the average 48 hour track error is about 140 nmi...such a landfall is entirely possible.
1-minute data from NOAA buoy 42056 were helpful in adjusting the 34 kt wind radii in the southeast quadrant.
Forecaster Franklin
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 18/0900z 20.6n 88.0w 95 kt 12hr VT 18/1800z 21.6n 90.1w 75 kt 24hr VT 19/0600z 22.9n 92.8w 85 kt 36hr VT 19/1800z 23.8n 95.2w 95 kt 48hr VT 20/0600z 24.4n 97.7w 100 kt...inland 72hr VT 21/0600z 25.0n 103.0w 25 kt...dissipating 96hr VT 22/0600z...dissipated
We should all wake up with a smile on our face, right? So...
Miztiki's totally unofficial 24 forecast for Miss Emily:
(drumroll please)
Miss Emily will emerge from the YP further north than predicted, and in wonderful shape, sporting flashy cat 2 attire.
She ate a few too many chocolates while visiting and will grow in size once she drinks from the hot gulf waters. Feeling a little bloated and cranky, she will quickly intensify by this time tomorrow to a strong cat 3, but she will travel more slowly than previously, maybe only 15 miles an hour or so.
Good morning everyone!
LOL! I agree. Miztiki put it in terms we novices can understand.
After monitoring gulf storms for the past 25 years the one thing I have learned is to not let down your gaurd. Forecasting has gotten better the last few years but mother nature still has a penchant for making weathermen a bunch of liars at times. In Texas, looking out your window, is at times, the best way to predict the weather.
We're ready as can be. Stocked supplies and windows covered. Monitoring the weather constantly. We might not be the bull's eye, but we're on the dart board, no doubt.
I'm fairly sure we're in for stormy weather because ants are attempting to invade our home. This began a few hours ago. They seem to invade before stormy weather.
Do you suppose the ants are as good of a weather indicator/predictor as any others? lol
Anything change?
Emily is marching across the YP. There's an update towards the end of the previous page. She's a Cat 2 now.
Oh, and check Miztiki's forecast toward the end of the previous page, too.
And we're now official under a hurricane watch. Last time I checked the strike probability map it looked like the hurricane watch area is extended slightly north compared to the previous map showing us with a 20% strike probability.
Please don't look at my "forecast" as anything other than some early morning humor. I made it all up while waiting for the real update! :-)
LOL
Yall didn't sleep? I was just checking the graphs and it looked like the cone had shifted a little more south.
Now that I think about it, I saw a local map with the hurricane watch area while looking around channel 5's website. It extends up to Sarita.
Miztiki, I knew it was humor! Why do you think I directed CD to it? I figured she needed a laugh, too. :)
Sleep? Not yet...
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