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Hurricane Emily (Live Thread, Part II)
NHC-NOAA ^ | 16 July 2005 | NHC

Posted on 07/16/2005 1:33:53 PM PDT by NautiNurse

Hurricanes Emily and Dennis are the strongest July storms in recorded history for the Atlantic hurricane basin...

Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:

NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, 5P, etc. ET.

NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET

Storm Floater IR Loop Little boxes at top of image: lat/lon, and Trop Fcst Pts--click 'em.

Caribbean IR Loop

Caribbean Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)

Storm Floater Sat Both loop and latest image

Western Caribbean Bouy Data

Jamaica Weather Has a few still radar images

Grand Cayman Weather

Cozumel Weather

Cancun Weather

Cancun Radar Very Slow Load

Another Cancun Radar another Very Slow Load

Hurricane Track Forecast

Hurricane Model Projections

Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the NHC 3 day and 5 day historic track positions



Some more resources:

Hurricane City

Global Satellite Imagery Amazing view of the world (Broadband)

Water Vapor SatelliteAnother colorful loop for broadband

Central Florida Hurricane Center offers a variety of info

Another colorful IR Satellite loop


The Saffir-Simpson Scale. Source: Hurricane Categories
Category Wind Speed Barometric
Pressure
Storm Surge Damage Potential
1
(weak)
75 - 95 mph
65 - 82 kts
33 - 42 m/s
> 28.94 in. Hg
> 980.0 mb
> 97.7 kPa
4.0 - 5.0 ft.
1.2 - 1.5 m
minimal damage to vegetation
2
(moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
43 - 49 m/s
28.50 - 28.93 in. Hg
965.1 - 979.7 mb
96.2 - 97.7 kPa
6.0 - 8.0 ft.
1.8 - 2.4 m
moderate damage to houses
3
(strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 113 kts
50 - 58 m/s
27.91 - 28.49 in. Hg
945.1 - 964.8 mb
96.2 - 97.7 kPa
9.0 - 12.0 ft.
2.7 - 3.7 m
extensive damage to small buildings
4
(very strong)
131 - 155 mph
114 - 135 kts
59 - 69 m/s
27.17 - 27.90 in. Hg
920.1 - 944.8 mb
91.7 - 94.2 kPa
13.0 - 18.0 ft.
3.9 - 5.5 m
extreme structural damage
5
(devastating)
> 155 mph
> 135 kts
> 70 m/s
< 27.17 in Hg
< 920.1 mb
< 91.7 kPa
> 18.0 ft
> 5.5 m
catastrophic building failures possible


Hurricane Emily Live Thread, Part I


TOPICS: Mexico; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: emily; hurricane; hurricaneemily; tropical; weather
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To: nwctwx

Am I the only one up at this hour? All this activity and everyone id asleep?


541 posted on 07/18/2005 1:17:11 AM PDT by eastforker (Under Cover FReeper going dark(too much 24))
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To: eastforker

I'm awake! The news channels are all asleep with no live coverage whatsoever, and that sucks IMO.


542 posted on 07/18/2005 1:25:47 AM PDT by Miztiki (Pearland, TX (just southeast of Houston))
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To: Miztiki; eastforker

Waving "howdy ya'll"...I'm still here, too. I've been off playing with weather links.


543 posted on 07/18/2005 1:30:25 AM PDT by RGVTx
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To: RGVTx

Good morning!

Do you have a link for the most up to date image of Miss Emily? It looks to me that she has kept herself in pretty good shape, with her northeast section staying over water just a wee bit.


544 posted on 07/18/2005 1:34:11 AM PDT by Miztiki (Pearland, TX (just southeast of Houston))
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To: Miztiki

Went to bed early so I could monitor this beast this morning.Looking to see what she will do once she comes into the BOC. Looks like she is holding together over land right now.


545 posted on 07/18/2005 1:41:21 AM PDT by eastforker (Under Cover FReeper going dark(too much 24))
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To: Miztiki

She is keeping herself in amazingly good shape. She appears to remain strong.

I've got the weather underground radar link open. Nothing seems to update very often. http://www.wunderground.com/global/Region/g1/2xIRSatellite.html

Also watching this loop. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
This loop has the overlays, including forecast path. It appears to me she is tracking a bit north of the predicted path.

If anyone has better radar link, please post them.


546 posted on 07/18/2005 1:47:15 AM PDT by RGVTx
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To: All
Hurricane Emily Advisory Number 30

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 18, 2005

 
...Emily begins to weaken over the Yucatan Peninsula...hurricane
watches issued along the western Gulf Coast.

At 5 am EDT...0900z...the government of Mexico has issued a
Hurricane Watch from Cabo Rojo northward to the Texas border.

 
At 5 am EDT...0900z...a Hurricane Watch has been issued along the
south Texas coast from Brownsville to Baffin Bay.

 
A Hurricane Watch is now in effect from Cabo Rojo Mexico northward
to Baffin Bay Texas. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane
conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36
hours.

 
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula from
Chetumal northward to Cabo Catoche...then westward and southward to
Campeche...including Cozumel and the islas mujeres. Preparations to
protect life and property should have already been completed.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Belize from
Belize City northward to the Belize-Mexico border.  This warning
will likely be discontinued later this morning.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located over
the Yucatan Peninsula near latitude 20.6 north... longitude 88.0
west or about 70 miles... 115 km... west of Cozumel Mexico and
about 120 miles... 195 km...east-southeast of Progreso Mexico.

 
Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph
...28 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next
24 hours.  Emily is expected to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico near
midday.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph...175 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Emily is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Additional weakening is expected while Emily is over land.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  60 miles... 95 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 150 miles...240 km.

 
Estimated minimum central pressure is  962 mb...28.41 inches.

 
Coastal storm surge flooding on the Caribbean side of the Yucatan
Peninsula will be diminishing during the day today.  

 

Rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches are possible over portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula with isolated maximum amounts up to 12 inches.

Repeating the 5 am EDT position...20.6 N... 88.0 W.  Movement
toward...west-northwest near 17 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds...110 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 962 mb.

 
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 am EDT.

 
Forecaster Franklin

 

547 posted on 07/18/2005 1:53:42 AM PDT by neutrality
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To: neutrality
Hurricane Emily Discussion Number 30

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 18, 2005

 

the eyewall of Hurricane Emily passed over Cozumel a few hours ago.
The Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft overflew the island
during the eyewall passage...at 05z...and reported peak flight
level winds of 124 kt. At 0322z...they reported 141 kt. Landfall
occurred near 0630z just north of Tulum. The reconnaissance data
suggest that Emily likely made landfall as a category four
hurricane with maximum winds near 115 kt. No observations have yet
been received from the landfall area.

Emily will be spending roughly 9 hours over the Yucatan...but is
likely to maintain hurricane strength during this passage. A weak
upper-level low over the Bay of Campeche may be contributing some
southwesterly shear over Emily...but global models suggest that
this upper low will move west-southwestward and weaken within 12-24
hours. This would result in an upper-tropospheric environment
conducive to strengthening.  Therefore...re-intensification is
likely once the center moves back over the waters of the southern
Gulf of Mexico.  Just how much Emily restrengthens is partly
dependent on the extent that the inner core is disrupted after
passing over northern Yucatan.    

 
The initial motion...295/15...is about the same as before...and the
official track forecast is also basically unchanged. NOAA and Air
Force Reserve aircraft conducted synoptic surveillance missions in
the Gulf and northwestern Caribbean last night. Dropsonde data from
these missions show a mid-level ridge solidly in place across the
northern Gulf. Global models indicate that this ridge could weaken
a little over the next 12-18 hours with the passage of a
mid-latitude short wave to the north. The upper low in the Bay of
Campeche could also result in a slight rightward deflection of the
track. However...both of these influences should diminish in
another 24 hours or so and the track should then Bend back toward
the left. The GFS...which has performed well with this storm...is
on the southern side of the guidance envelope...while the NOGAPS is
on the northern egde. The official forecast is in good agreement
with the FSU superensemble...which in fact has outperformed both
the NOGAPS and GFS with this cyclone. None of the Standard guidance
shows a landfall in south Texas at this time. Nevertheless...given
that the average 48 hour track error is about 140 nmi...such a
landfall is entirely possible.

1-minute data from NOAA buoy 42056 were helpful in adjusting the 34
kt wind radii in the southeast quadrant.

 
Forecaster Franklin

 

 
forecast positions and Max winds

 
initial      18/0900z 20.6n  88.0w    95 kt
 12hr VT     18/1800z 21.6n  90.1w    75 kt
 24hr VT     19/0600z 22.9n  92.8w    85 kt
 36hr VT     19/1800z 23.8n  95.2w    95 kt
 48hr VT     20/0600z 24.4n  97.7w   100 kt...inland
 72hr VT     21/0600z 25.0n 103.0w    25 kt...dissipating
 96hr VT     22/0600z...dissipated

548 posted on 07/18/2005 1:54:54 AM PDT by neutrality
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To: RGVTx

We should all wake up with a smile on our face, right? So...

Miztiki's totally unofficial 24 forecast for Miss Emily:

(drumroll please)

Miss Emily will emerge from the YP further north than predicted, and in wonderful shape, sporting flashy cat 2 attire.

She ate a few too many chocolates while visiting and will grow in size once she drinks from the hot gulf waters. Feeling a little bloated and cranky, she will quickly intensify by this time tomorrow to a strong cat 3, but she will travel more slowly than previously, maybe only 15 miles an hour or so.

Good morning everyone!


549 posted on 07/18/2005 1:56:15 AM PDT by Miztiki (Pearland, TX (just southeast of Houston))
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To: Miztiki
I normally do not post on these threads cause of load time

for others (always read though) but just this once I gotta

LOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!!! ok back to read mode.
550 posted on 07/18/2005 2:03:40 AM PDT by fivekid ( STOP THE WORLD!!!!! I wanna get off.........)
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To: fivekid; Miztiki

LOL! I agree. Miztiki put it in terms we novices can understand.


551 posted on 07/18/2005 2:10:10 AM PDT by RGVTx
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To: RGVTx

After monitoring gulf storms for the past 25 years the one thing I have learned is to not let down your gaurd. Forecasting has gotten better the last few years but mother nature still has a penchant for making weathermen a bunch of liars at times. In Texas, looking out your window, is at times, the best way to predict the weather.


552 posted on 07/18/2005 2:26:58 AM PDT by eastforker (Under Cover FReeper going dark(too much 24))
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To: eastforker

We're ready as can be. Stocked supplies and windows covered. Monitoring the weather constantly. We might not be the bull's eye, but we're on the dart board, no doubt.

I'm fairly sure we're in for stormy weather because ants are attempting to invade our home. This began a few hours ago. They seem to invade before stormy weather.
Do you suppose the ants are as good of a weather indicator/predictor as any others? lol


553 posted on 07/18/2005 2:48:47 AM PDT by RGVTx
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To: RGVTx

Anything change?


554 posted on 07/18/2005 3:03:53 AM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: CindyDawg

Emily is marching across the YP. There's an update towards the end of the previous page. She's a Cat 2 now.

Oh, and check Miztiki's forecast toward the end of the previous page, too.

And we're now official under a hurricane watch. Last time I checked the strike probability map it looked like the hurricane watch area is extended slightly north compared to the previous map showing us with a 20% strike probability.


555 posted on 07/18/2005 3:15:43 AM PDT by RGVTx
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To: RGVTx; CindyDawg

Please don't look at my "forecast" as anything other than some early morning humor. I made it all up while waiting for the real update! :-)


556 posted on 07/18/2005 3:19:13 AM PDT by Miztiki (Pearland, TX (just southeast of Houston))
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To: Miztiki

LOL


557 posted on 07/18/2005 3:20:16 AM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: RGVTx

Yall didn't sleep? I was just checking the graphs and it looked like the cone had shifted a little more south.


558 posted on 07/18/2005 3:21:55 AM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: CindyDawg; Miztiki

Now that I think about it, I saw a local map with the hurricane watch area while looking around channel 5's website. It extends up to Sarita.

Miztiki, I knew it was humor! Why do you think I directed CD to it? I figured she needed a laugh, too. :)


559 posted on 07/18/2005 3:23:59 AM PDT by RGVTx
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To: CindyDawg

Sleep? Not yet...


560 posted on 07/18/2005 3:25:16 AM PDT by RGVTx
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