Hurricane Emily Advisory Number 30
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 18, 2005
...Emily begins to weaken over the Yucatan Peninsula...hurricane
watches issued along the western Gulf Coast.
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the government of Mexico has issued a
Hurricane Watch from Cabo Rojo northward to the Texas border.
At 5 am EDT...0900z...a Hurricane Watch has been issued along the
south Texas coast from Brownsville to Baffin Bay.
A Hurricane Watch is now in effect from Cabo Rojo Mexico northward
to Baffin Bay Texas. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane
conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36
hours.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula from
Chetumal northward to Cabo Catoche...then westward and southward to
Campeche...including Cozumel and the islas mujeres. Preparations to
protect life and property should have already been completed.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Belize from
Belize City northward to the Belize-Mexico border. This warning
will likely be discontinued later this morning.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located over
the Yucatan Peninsula near latitude 20.6 north... longitude 88.0
west or about 70 miles... 115 km... west of Cozumel Mexico and
about 120 miles... 195 km...east-southeast of Progreso Mexico.
Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph
...28 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next
24 hours. Emily is expected to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico near
midday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph...175 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Emily is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Additional weakening is expected while Emily is over land.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 150 miles...240 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb...28.41 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding on the Caribbean side of the Yucatan
Peninsula will be diminishing during the day today.
Rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches are possible over portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula with isolated maximum amounts up to 12 inches.
Repeating the 5 am EDT position...20.6 N... 88.0 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...110 mph. Minimum central pressure... 962 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 am EDT.
Forecaster Franklin
Hurricane Emily Discussion Number 30
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 18, 2005
the eyewall of Hurricane Emily passed over Cozumel a few hours ago.
The Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft overflew the island
during the eyewall passage...at 05z...and reported peak flight
level winds of 124 kt. At 0322z...they reported 141 kt. Landfall
occurred near 0630z just north of Tulum. The reconnaissance data
suggest that Emily likely made landfall as a category four
hurricane with maximum winds near 115 kt. No observations have yet
been received from the landfall area.
Emily will be spending roughly 9 hours over the Yucatan...but is
likely to maintain hurricane strength during this passage. A weak
upper-level low over the Bay of Campeche may be contributing some
southwesterly shear over Emily...but global models suggest that
this upper low will move west-southwestward and weaken within 12-24
hours. This would result in an upper-tropospheric environment
conducive to strengthening. Therefore...re-intensification is
likely once the center moves back over the waters of the southern
Gulf of Mexico. Just how much Emily restrengthens is partly
dependent on the extent that the inner core is disrupted after
passing over northern Yucatan.
The initial motion...295/15...is about the same as before...and the
official track forecast is also basically unchanged. NOAA and Air
Force Reserve aircraft conducted synoptic surveillance missions in
the Gulf and northwestern Caribbean last night. Dropsonde data from
these missions show a mid-level ridge solidly in place across the
northern Gulf. Global models indicate that this ridge could weaken
a little over the next 12-18 hours with the passage of a
mid-latitude short wave to the north. The upper low in the Bay of
Campeche could also result in a slight rightward deflection of the
track. However...both of these influences should diminish in
another 24 hours or so and the track should then Bend back toward
the left. The GFS...which has performed well with this storm...is
on the southern side of the guidance envelope...while the NOGAPS is
on the northern egde. The official forecast is in good agreement
with the FSU superensemble...which in fact has outperformed both
the NOGAPS and GFS with this cyclone. None of the Standard guidance
shows a landfall in south Texas at this time. Nevertheless...given
that the average 48 hour track error is about 140 nmi...such a
landfall is entirely possible.
1-minute data from NOAA buoy 42056 were helpful in adjusting the 34
kt wind radii in the southeast quadrant.
Forecaster Franklin
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 18/0900z 20.6n 88.0w 95 kt
12hr VT 18/1800z 21.6n 90.1w 75 kt
24hr VT 19/0600z 22.9n 92.8w 85 kt
36hr VT 19/1800z 23.8n 95.2w 95 kt
48hr VT 20/0600z 24.4n 97.7w 100 kt...inland
72hr VT 21/0600z 25.0n 103.0w 25 kt...dissipating
96hr VT 22/0600z...dissipated