Posted on 07/16/2005 1:33:53 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricanes Emily and Dennis are the strongest July storms in recorded history for the Atlantic hurricane basin...
Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:
NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, 5P, etc. ET.
NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET
Storm Floater IR Loop Little boxes at top of image: lat/lon, and Trop Fcst Pts--click 'em.
Caribbean Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)
Storm Floater Sat Both loop and latest image
Jamaica Weather Has a few still radar images
Cancun Radar Very Slow Load
Another Cancun Radar another Very Slow Load
Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the NHC 3 day and 5 day historic track positions
Global Satellite Imagery Amazing view of the world (Broadband)
Water Vapor SatelliteAnother colorful loop for broadband
Central Florida Hurricane Center offers a variety of info
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure |
Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (weak) |
75 - 95 mph 65 - 82 kts 33 - 42 m/s |
> 28.94 in. Hg > 980.0 mb > 97.7 kPa |
4.0 - 5.0 ft. 1.2 - 1.5 m |
minimal damage to vegetation |
| 2 (moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts 43 - 49 m/s |
28.50 - 28.93 in. Hg 965.1 - 979.7 mb 96.2 - 97.7 kPa |
6.0 - 8.0 ft. 1.8 - 2.4 m |
moderate damage to houses |
| 3 (strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 113 kts 50 - 58 m/s |
27.91 - 28.49 in. Hg 945.1 - 964.8 mb 96.2 - 97.7 kPa |
9.0 - 12.0 ft. 2.7 - 3.7 m |
extensive damage to small buildings |
| 4 (very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 114 - 135 kts 59 - 69 m/s |
27.17 - 27.90 in. Hg 920.1 - 944.8 mb 91.7 - 94.2 kPa |
13.0 - 18.0 ft. 3.9 - 5.5 m |
extreme structural damage |
| 5 (devastating) |
> 155 mph > 135 kts > 70 m/s |
< 27.17 in Hg < 920.1 mb < 91.7 kPa |
> 18.0 ft > 5.5 m |
catastrophic building failures possible |
Dr. Neil Frank, former head of NHC...returned early from vacation 'cause of Emily, forecast 7% for Houston if the Bermuda High deeps into the Gulf. If not look out. He'll not relax until Emily makes landfall.
One of our finest FResident weather experts here is also a mod over on easternuswx. I'll bet my hurricane shutters he's in on that discussion...
Did you get much rain this morning? We're out near Canyon Lake - but it was all east of us... Yesterday was WONDERFUL.. Thursday we had a nice steady rain for a couple hours .. but I know it didn't get down to SAT.
Not a drop today, even with 80% chances and flash flood watches. Still some storms popping up, so maybe...
Hey gal, are you watching this storm??? My worst ever nightmares as a kid came from Carla. That was one bad storm.
Hi Pamlet--glad you checked in here. Stay as long as you like, and stop by as often as you can.
Recon should be in there now. 8PM update pending big news...
8PM is the intermediate update with full at 11PM EDT?
929mb, 155mph
...Rainbands of extremely dangerous category four Hurricane Emily spreading over Jamaica and the Cayman Islands...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and for all of the Cayman Islands.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the eastern and northern coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal to Progreso... including Cozumel and the islas mujeres.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area within the next 36 hours.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for portions of the coast of Belize from Belize City northward to the Belize-Mexico border.
A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of western Cuba later this evening.
Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean... and the southern Gulf of Mexico... should monitor the progress of Emily.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located near latitude 17.1 north...longitude 79.5 west or about 140 miles... 230 km... southwest of Montego Bay Jamaica and about 195 miles... 315 km... southeast of Grand Cayman.
Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph... 30 km/hr... and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On this track... the center of Emily will be moving away from Jamaica tonight and will be near Grand Cayman tonight and Sunday morning.
Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 155 mph... 250 km/hr... with higher gusts. Emily is a strong category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some fluctuations in strength are expected... and Emily could become a category five hurricane at times... during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km... from the center... and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles... 240 km. For Jamaica... hurricane force winds could still occur tonight in gusts in rainbands along the coasts... with possible sustained hurricane force winds at higher elevations... especially above about 3000 feet.
The minimum central pressure reported by the reconnaissance aircraft was 929 mb...27.43 inches.
Above normal tides... accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves... are possible along the south coasts of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.
Emily could produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 8 inches over Jamaica with maximum amounts of 15 inches over mountainous terrain. Rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches are possible over the Cayman Islands... with some 1 to 3 inch amounts possible over southeastern Cuba. Rains will be increasing over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday with storm total amounts of 4 to 8 inches possible... and local maximum amounts up to 12 inches. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Repeating the 8 PM EDT position...17.1 N... 79.5 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...155 mph. Minimum central pressure... 929 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 PM EDT.
Forecaster Knabb
We rode out Alex last year in Waves, NC, and that was borderline between cat 1 & 2. Can't even imagine a 4 or 5.
That's a strange format over there, Member No.: 4.
Do me a favor and post a howdy so I can figure out how to reply.
Pressure still dropping. Should nudge over to a 5 by next update, I would guess.
It looks like my wife and I got extremely lucky on our cruise. We traveled to Haiti, Jamaica, Grand Cayman, and Cozumel the week of June 11-18. Perfectly calm seas and beautiful sunny weather the entire time.
The week before our Cruise Arlene deluged Grand Cayman and Cozumel. Since then Cindy, Dennis and now Emily have ravaged the areas we sailed through.
Won't be a bit surprised if they have an update shortly with higher winds. This happened earlier today. NHC ran up against the clock with recon, had to release an advisory. Within a short time, they had a flashing update.
929mb sets a record low pressure for July, right? Dennis minimum was 930mb?
Hiya commish! Was wondering where you were a bit ago... Hope you can spend some time providing the TX Freepers your wonderful storm analysis.
I was in Galveston with my family when Carla came up. One evening I was on a dock fishing, the next morning, the dock and the yard were under water. We evacuated, although my sister and I begged Mamma and Daddy to stay so we could see the hurricane. [I was 6.] As we were leaving, the water was beginning to come up over the road to the causeway.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
