Posted on 07/14/2005 9:56:01 PM PDT by Lazamataz
First came Holstein, then Mad Dog, and soon, Thunder Horse. Atlantis will join them next year. The four giant oil fields, operated by BP PLC (BP ) and located under thousands of feet of water off the coast of Louisiana, are just beginning to pump their first barrels. At their peak rates later in the decade, they'll produce some 500,000 bbl. per day, an amount akin to floating a small Middle Eastern country such as Syria or Yemen into the Gulf of Mexico. "Add them together, and it's a massive step change," says David Eyton, BP's vice-president for deepwater in the Gulf. "The investment we're making will more than offset declines we're seeing in Alaska and the Continental Shelf."
It may seem today as if the world is running out of oil. The price of crude has hovered around $57 a barrel, in part on fears of a supply crunch in the fourth quarter. Chevron (CVX ) and China National Offshore Oil are battling for control of Unocal (UCL ). The Senate on June 28 passed the latest version of an energy bill stuffed with $18 billion in tax incentives to encourage energy production. Even legendary oilman T. Boone Pickens is predicting $3-a-gallon gasoline within a year. The national average now: a pricey $2.22.
No doubt, the energy industry is in a precarious position. Two decades of falling prices in the 1980s and '90s discouraged investment. With many of the easy-to-find fields already on the map, big oil producers have been forced to look for new sources in ever-more-hostile environments: not just under thousands of feet of water but also across frozen tundra and in countries rocked by political unrest. As a result, production has risen sluggishly in recent years, while energy demand, particularly from the booming China and
(Excerpt) Read more at yahoo.businessweek.com ...
Every refinery in the country runs 95-100% capacity right now. No new refineries have been built in years, and many, many small to mid-size ones have been squeezed out, both phenomena caused primarily by environmental regulations.
That's why there's a price spike/hiccup everytime there is a refinery problem/accident/shutdown anywhere in the U.S.
My very humble opinion is:
Floor at $28, coming out at an average of $35 as the speculators bail in numbers around $50, this time next year.
That floor might come sooner than later too. Watch Toronto exchange.
Even with price looking to head south, there are still alot of good bets in the "patch".
Your're pretty close. there's lots of critters in there though, just smaller than the sand grains.
I remember when you can get gas for 70 Cents
I say from Democrats under pressure.
Yeah, right.....are you serious? People have thought I'm crazy for 10 years or so. Tell me you aren't kidding...
While I think there is plenty of oil longterm, in the short term there is still very likely to be squeeze because India and China are going full bore and using tons and tons more energy. Think of it..they are hitting our 1950s with more people getting "stuff" and cars....but the difference is that is a pool of 1.8 billion people. That is one helluva uptick in energy uses for as far as the eye can see.
Some forget about India, but that place is exploding too. So in the near term I would expect the squeeze...plus the economy has actually taken this hit far better than many thought......after all its not even close to the all time high (inflation adjusted). I think it might tack between low forties and mid fifties for several years...hitting 60 on scares.
I bet if you took the gas tax out of the equation, the current price would be in line with milk/movie/car/food increases in cost. Just a guess though.
What is shale? Don't we get some petrol product from shale?
Hell, man... when I started driving it was 35 cents a gallon, but if you hunted around town ( I can still remember the gas station where I saw the price, it's a shell on Norwich Street today ) you could find 25 cent a gallon gas.
Remember Sunoco 260? 130 Octane gas, blended at the pump for high-compression engines.
I remember during a "gas war" when it was 12 Cents a gallon at the Kick A Poo Gas Station 2 blocks from my house.
Thunder Bay, 1953
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0046425/
But I just bought a spiked leather jacket and have been stocking up on shells! Can we have oil AND Mad Max?
This is good news. I was looking to trade in my SUV for an old mule, but I'll hold off for awhile.
Yes we are!!!!!
Yes we can.
Next Friday at my place.
I don't know where oil comes from but I believe that what I was taught fifty years ago was that it came from plant matter, not animals.
Homer Simpson: "Mmmmmmmmm...chewy caramel and nougat" (drools)
Damn.
And I just got a mohawk haircut.
I guess I should start brushing my teeth again too.
I remember when you can get gas for 70 Cents.>>>>>>>>>>>>
You still can if you buy pork and beans on sale. I remember when you could buy gasoline for 20 cents a gallon, so what?
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