"Preventable" is an inspiring word.
U.S.-EUROPEAN COOPERATION ON
COUNTERTERRORISM: ACHIEVEMENTS AND CHALLENGES
JOINT HEARING
BEFORE THE
SUBCOMMITTEE ON EUROPE
AND THE
SUBCOMMITTEE ON
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM, NONPROLIFERATION AND HUMAN RIGHTS
OF THE
COMMITTEE ON
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
ONE HUNDRED EIGHTH CONGRESS
SECOND SESSION
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...excerpt...
Al Qaeda members have repeatedly met with different officials and scientists in order to understand how to acquire and use nuclear weapons in their jihad. Recovered documents suggest they are actively pursuing a nuclear capability. Although these documents mostly reflect a crude understanding of nuclear weapons design, some are relatively sophisticated. Any previous ambiguity regarding the use of WMD according to Islam has also now been clarified. The ''Treatise on the Legal Status of Using Weapons of Mass Destruction against Infidels'' establishes the intellectual and moral framework for these attacks against non-Muslims.
Three years after September 11, and with jihadists having expressed a desire to carry out a much larger-scale operation, one major question arises: why haven't there been any other major attacks? Is al Qaeda in the middle of a planning cycle? Or is the acquisition and use of a weapon of mass destruction too difficult? While it is certainly to be hoped that the international community has made it impossibly difficult to acquire WMD, these are open questions that need to be investigated more thoroughly.
Thus far, there is no evidence that al Qaeda has acquired either a nuclear or significant biological weapons capability. Given the large number of scientifically capable members, however, the possibility that the group or some other jihadist group will acquire WMD will grow over time. Al Qaeda itself has taken numerous blows from post-September 11 counterterrorism efforts, and its capabilities have probably been diminished. But these positive results have been undermined by the galvanizing effects of September 11 and subsequent attacks in Europe, the Middle East, and South East Asia on Islamist groups around the world.
Overall, there has been a process of both splintering and energizing. Given how many of the newly galvanized groups are appearing in the developing world-with little exposure to al Qaeda training under bin Laden in Afghanistan-it is a reasonable assumption that most of these terrorists have lower technical skills than al Qaeda trainees. In light of the mobilization of European radicals, however, it is entirely possible that a new cell or organization could emerge with superior skills. In short, the WMD threat is not going away, and as barriers to entry for, say, biological weapons fall, the conclusion of participants in the Transatlantic Dialogue on Terrorism is that the overall danger is growing.