Mark Steyn: Who can stop the rise and rise of China? The communists, of course

Seventy years ago, in the days of Fu Manchu and Charlie Chan, when the inscrutable Oriental had a powerful grip on Occidental culture, Erle Stanley Gardner wrote en passant in the course of a short story: "The Chinese of wealth always builds his house with a cunning simulation of external poverty. In the Orient one may look in vain for mansions, unless one has the entrée to private homes. The street entrances always give the impression of congestion and poverty, and the lines of architecture are carefully carried out so that no glimpse of the mansion itself is visible over the forbidding false front of what appears to be a squalid hovel."

Well, the mansion's pretty much out in the open now. Confucius say: If you got it, flaunt it, baby. China is the preferred vacation destination for middle-class Britons; western businessmen return cooing with admiration over the quality of the WiFi in the lobby Starbucks of their Guangzhou hotels; glittering skylines ascend ever higher from the coastal cities as fleets of BMWs cruise the upscale boutiques in the streets below.

The assumption that this will be the "Asian century" is so universal that Jacques Chirac (borrowing from Harold Macmillan vis-à-vis JFK) now promotes himself as Greece to Beijing's Rome, and the marginally less deranged of The Guardian's many Euro-fantasists excuse the EU's sclerosis on the grounds that no one could possibly compete with the unstoppable rise of a Chinese behemoth that by mid-century will have squashed America like the cockroach she is.

Even in the US, the cry is heard: Go east, young man! "If I were a young journalist today, figuring out where I should go to make my career, I would go to China," said Philip Bennett, the Washington Post's managing editor, in a fawning interview with the People's Daily in Beijing a few weeks back. "I think China is the best place in the world to be an American journalist right now."

Really? Tell it to Zhao Yan of the New York Times' Beijing bureau, who was arrested last September and has been held without trial ever since.

What we're seeing is an inversion of what Erle Stanley Gardner observed: a cunning simulation of external wealth and power that is, in fact, a forbidding false front for a state that remains a squalid hovel. Zhao of the Times is not alone in his fate: China jails more journalists than any other country in the world. Ching Cheong, a correspondent for the Straits Times of Singapore, disappeared in April while seeking copies of unpublished interviews with Zhao Ziyang, the Communist Party general secretary, who fell from favour after declining to support the Tiananmen Square massacre. And, if that's how the regime treats representatives of leading global publications, you can imagine what "the best place in the world" to be a journalist is like for the local boys.

China is (to borrow the formulation they used when they swallowed Hong Kong) "One Country, Two Systems". On the one hand, there's the China the world gushes over - the economic powerhouse that makes just about everything in your house. On the other, there's the largely unreconstructed official China - a regime that, while no longer as zealously ideological as it once was, nevertheless clings to the old techniques beloved of paranoid totalitarianism: lie and bluster in public, arrest and torture in private. China is the Security Council member most actively promoting inaction on Darfur, where (in the most significant long-range military deployment in five centuries), it has 4,000 troops protecting its oil interests. Kim Jong-Il of North Korea is an international threat only because Beijing licenses him as a provocateur with which to torment Washington and Tokyo, in the way that a mob boss will send round a mentally unstable heavy. This is not the behaviour of a psychologically healthy state.

How long can these two systems co-exist in one country and what will happen when they collide? If the People's Republic is now the workshop of the world, the Communist Party is the bull in its own China shop. It's unclear, for example, whether they have the discipline to be able to resist moving against Taiwan in the next couple of years. Unlike the demoralised late-period Soviet nomenklatura, Beijing's leadership does not accept that the cause is lost: unlike most outside analysts, they do not assume that the world's first economically viable form of Communism is merely an interim phase en route to a free - or even free-ish - society.

Mao, though he gets a better press than Hitler and Stalin, was the biggest mass murderer of all time, with a body count ten times' higher than the Nazis (as Jung Chang's new biography reminds us). The standard line of Sinologists is that, while still perfunct-orily genuflecting to his embalmed corpse in Tiananmen Square, his successors have moved on - just as, in Austin Powers, while Dr Evil is in suspended animation, his Number Two diversifies the consortium's core business away from evildoing and reorients it toward a portfolio of investments including a chain of premium coffee stores. But Maoists with stock options are still Maoists - especially when they owe their robust portfolios to a privileged position within the state apparatus.

The internal contradictions of Commie-capitalism will, in the end, scupper the present arrangements in Beijing. China manufactures the products for some of the biggest brands in the world, but it's also the biggest thief of copyrights and patents of those same brands. It makes almost all Disney's official merchandising, yet it's also the country that defrauds Disney and pirates its movies. The new China's contempt for the concept of intellectual property arises from the old China's contempt for the concept of all private property: because most big Chinese businesses are (in one form or another) government-controlled, they've failed to understand the link between property rights and economic development.

China hasn't invented or discovered anything of significance in half a millennium, but the careless assumption that intellectual property is something to be stolen rather than protected shows why. If you're a resource-poor nation (as China is), long-term prosperity comes from liberating the creative energies of your people - and Beijing still has no interest in that. If a blogger attempts to use the words "freedom" or "democracy" or "Taiwan independence" on Microsoft's new Chinese internet portal, he gets the message: "This item contains forbidden speech. Please delete the forbidden speech." How pathetic is that? Not just for the Microsoft-spined Corporation, which should be ashamed of itself, but for the Chinese government, which pretends to be a world power but is terrified of words.

Does "Commie wimps" count as forbidden speech, too? And what is the likelihood of China advancing to a functioning modern stand-alone business culture if it's unable to discuss anything except within its feudal political straitjackets? Its speech code is a sign not of control but of weakness; its internet protective blocks are not the armour but the, er, chink.

India, by contrast, with much less ballyhoo, is advancing faster than China toward a fully-developed economy - one that creates its own ideas. Small example: there are low-fare airlines that sell £40 one-way cross-country air tickets from computer screens at Indian petrol stations. No one would develop such a system for China, where internal travel is still tightly controlled by the state. But, because they respect their own people as a market, Indian businesses are already proving nimbler at serving other markets. The return on investment capital is already much better in India than in China.

I said a while back that China was a better bet for the future than Russia or the European Union. Which is damning with faint praise: trapped in a demographic death spiral, Russia and Europe have no future at all. But that doesn't mean China will bestride the scene as a geopolitical colossus. When European analysts coo about a "Chinese century", all they mean is "Oh, God, please, anything other than a second American century". But wishing won't make it so.

China won't advance to the First World with its present borders intact. In a billion-strong state with an 80 per cent rural population cut off from the coastal boom and prevented from participating in it, "One country, two systems" will lead to two or three countries, three or four systems. The 21st century will be an Anglosphere century, with America, India and Australia leading the way. Anti-Americans betting on Beijing will find the China shop is in the end mostly a lot of bull.

Yes. Vietnam I can see being cynical. And maybe some schlubs slaving away at making a living in Shanghai. But the actual business operators? Uh, uh. They are all in too thick so to speak. Steyn nails this with these trenchant observations:

"Beijing's leadership does not accept that the cause is lost: unlike most outside analysts, they do not assume that the world's first economically viable form of Communism is merely an interim phase en route to a free - or even free-ish - society.

Deng Xiouping made clear that the international class struggle against the West's "Ruling Interests" continued to the hardliners when he explained why they were adopting capitalist camoflage: "Does it matter whether you call the cat black or white? So long as it catches mice."

This metahpor is not benign, and is in fact a rather bloody one that was immediately understood as such.

I recommend anyone who also speak Chinese go and read Caoan's articles. The reality is far grimer for China and much worse than Steyn knows - in fact, the reports I read on all Western media read like yesterday's People's Daily.

http://www.dajiyuan.com/gb/nssc858.htm

(To TLR: this is the unnamed gentleman I mentioned a few months ago on a thread on P.R. China)

I believe he was only anti-Communist where he believed it would be to his political advantage.

Total nonsense, demonstrating a lack of fundamental knowledge about the man you've chosen to criticize. Nixon was many things, a big government, spendthrift Republican among them, but his lifelong, intense anti-communism was sincere and straight from the gut.

By the way, it's laughable, oh-so-wise one.

I apologize for impugning a man you obviously knew well, probably from your personal experience with his mind, as the Lord God of All Creation. And you masterfully catching that typo--I take it all back--hearing from you, a great and wise sort who backs his own opinion with such a wealth of personal opinion and has no need of facts other than his own brain cells, nay, you have opened my eyes! I'm going to open a church where I worship you, beckett--screw that lameass Jesus. Heck, I've already printed out all your posts and I just finished building a shrine in my closet to you. If you don't mind, could you say more so I could use your pithy commentary as prayer? I am probably not worthy of your edification, but I'll take whatever I, a lowly worm not fit to gaze upon your radiance and sheer intellect, can get, O great omniscient one!

...half the population is over 60, and the other half consists of 2/3 men and 1/3 women?

Ah, a realist using common sense to look into the future... how quaint!

May I stand with you and marvel at the spectacle of 200 million horny Chinese guys trying to get their share, their potential mates having been killed off by the State, over-running the thin rim of prosperity on the coast of China. Not pretty, no even on the same planet as pretty! But the bright side is we won't have to buy back all those US Treasury bonds they own... Win win for the USA!

Even communist cannot stop a rising China ! Chinese already make their mind - they want good life and rich of course. I don't think China wants to be the leader of the world. However, United States is not China's boss neither. United States have to share the powers with Europe, China, India, Russia or other countries in 21st century. Japanese government is the only friend you have in Asia. United States lost the respect in Asia since
Bush Administration invaded Iraq. Japanese government is your only friend in Asia now. The others - India, Korea, New Zealand and Australia will go their own way. India will continue their oil project with Iran. India
told Rice - Iran is Amerian's enemy but not India. Got it? Chinese don't like communist, communist will go
eventually. I bet the current communist know it . Most of my friends think China need communist at this stage - to get the things done. China will be a democratic country when they have more middle class. China still has a long way to go, there are many difficulties in front of China but Chinese will conquer those difficulties one by one, it may take 20 years to resolve domestic problems.

China have too many men in the future? I don't worry that much as you guys, the reason - other Asian countries's women will marry Chinese when China's living standard
improve. China is not the enemy of United States, don't call the name or they will be. United States has the highest military budge in the world, 10 times more than China. My question to you as you to China - why? you are a super power, no enemy. A strong, successful and peaceful China is all of Chinese wish, including overseas Chinese.
Chinese will regain their inventive ability. You just keep eyes on it. China just had two hundred year bad time,
She needs the time to recover. Listen, now is 21st century, not 19 century, People change, including Asia.

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