The intelligence community probably thinks they fully understand al Qaida. Their last attacks were similar to this, and nothing happened after them. I wouldn't personally put too much faith in their past actions though. I'd think the chances are low, but if the same thing happened in the U.S. tomorrow/the day after/next week. Think of just how much larger this would be.
I guess the real question is: was this a Madrid type cell, or did these orders come from the top?
If they came from the top, the casualty count (any is too much) seems a little low for their 'spectacular' fantasies.
All good points, Ian.
I agree. This attack- though horrific- does not come close to matching the jihadi's descriptions of what to expect and does not match up with some of the more dangerous materials which were discovered in Britain. For example, a large chemical cache like that found in Jordan (some 57 chems) was found in Britain. Plans for their usage in the tubes were a concern. Use of radiological dirty bombs was discussed and evacuations planned for. Statements were made about how authorities would need to cordon off victims of a biological attack in London or other large cities.
I'm not sure the orders came from the top. I'm wondering if the cell or cells acted- then hoped the "top" would take credit.Recall that many times Muslims have been urged to kill infidels and anyone who supported the US in the Iraq war. I imagine the cell members were greatly affected by the infidel-bashing blather of their local Imans....
Something just doesn't seem to add up---these folks seem more like amateurs than seasoned terrorists who plotted and planned for years,,,,