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To: RebelTex

"That, IMHO, if all out war broke out between India and Pakistan, the US & China would most likely be drawn into the conflict.
That, IMHO, whichever side the US takes doesn't really matter as China will most likely take the other side."

And whose side do you think the US would take? Can you state it a bit more clearly?


132 posted on 05/31/2005 2:06:47 AM PDT by Gengis Khan (Since light travels faster than sound, people appear bright until u hear them speak.)
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To: Gengis Khan

"And whose side do you think the US would take? Can you state it a bit more clearly?"

I think that if we took India's side, it would likely enrage Muslims throughout the mid-East and really hurt the WOT.  (The WOT is a big factor, IMO, and from my perspective, may influence us to lean towards Pakistan more.)   OTOH, if we supported Pakistan, that might push India right into the open arms of China.  A real Hobson's choice.  I can't see any benefit either way, a lose-lose proposition.

China, however, has pretty close ties to both countries and appears to be trying to strengthen them, especially with India.  Given China's apparent overall goal to become the next superpower, this needs careful monitoring.

If all out war between those two countries did break out, I think we would attempt to mediate, not taking either side, and exert pressure on both to end the conflict.  However, if China jumps in on either side, it's a whole new ballgame.  I think we would pretty much be forced into supporting the opposite side, whichever side that might be.  So, the question should probably be: which side would China support?  Whichever side they choose, you can bet it will be the one that benefits them and hurts our interests the most.  I don't think it matters which side, though, because we would still be caught in the middle.

The only sensible thing for us, IMO, is to stay on top of the situation, improve relations with both India and Pakistan as much as possible, try to avert friction or war between the two, and keep a close eye on China.  Based on what it appears we are now doing (most of the above), we could probably increase our efforts at improving relations with India, which I believe was Jeff's point, in the first place.

Now that I've completely hedged all my bets, LOL, I'll clarify which I think we would have to choose.   I think that the War on Terror is so important and such a big factor, that, if we had to choose, we would be forced to choose Pakistan.  If China believes that Pakistan is a more valuable ally to her than India, then China might stay out of it.  As I stated in my previous post, I never claimed to have a vast and/or complete knowledge of south-Asian history.  I can't predict what China, Pakistan, or India will do, but only speculate about what they might do.

135 posted on 05/31/2005 6:19:43 AM PDT by RebelTex (Freedom is everyone's right - and everyone's responsibility!)
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