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To: Gengis Khan

"And whose side do you think the US would take? Can you state it a bit more clearly?"

I think that if we took India's side, it would likely enrage Muslims throughout the mid-East and really hurt the WOT.  (The WOT is a big factor, IMO, and from my perspective, may influence us to lean towards Pakistan more.)   OTOH, if we supported Pakistan, that might push India right into the open arms of China.  A real Hobson's choice.  I can't see any benefit either way, a lose-lose proposition.

China, however, has pretty close ties to both countries and appears to be trying to strengthen them, especially with India.  Given China's apparent overall goal to become the next superpower, this needs careful monitoring.

If all out war between those two countries did break out, I think we would attempt to mediate, not taking either side, and exert pressure on both to end the conflict.  However, if China jumps in on either side, it's a whole new ballgame.  I think we would pretty much be forced into supporting the opposite side, whichever side that might be.  So, the question should probably be: which side would China support?  Whichever side they choose, you can bet it will be the one that benefits them and hurts our interests the most.  I don't think it matters which side, though, because we would still be caught in the middle.

The only sensible thing for us, IMO, is to stay on top of the situation, improve relations with both India and Pakistan as much as possible, try to avert friction or war between the two, and keep a close eye on China.  Based on what it appears we are now doing (most of the above), we could probably increase our efforts at improving relations with India, which I believe was Jeff's point, in the first place.

Now that I've completely hedged all my bets, LOL, I'll clarify which I think we would have to choose.   I think that the War on Terror is so important and such a big factor, that, if we had to choose, we would be forced to choose Pakistan.  If China believes that Pakistan is a more valuable ally to her than India, then China might stay out of it.  As I stated in my previous post, I never claimed to have a vast and/or complete knowledge of south-Asian history.  I can't predict what China, Pakistan, or India will do, but only speculate about what they might do.

135 posted on 05/31/2005 6:19:43 AM PDT by RebelTex (Freedom is everyone's right - and everyone's responsibility!)
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To: RebelTex; Jeff Head; Red6

" I think that the War on Terror is so important and such a big factor, that, if we had to choose, we would be forced to choose Pakistan. "

Well you have cited a (very much) possible alternative course that the US may be willing to follow which brings me two my point..... and that is (as things stand currently) India cannot fully count on the US for support be it in a conflict with Pakistan or China. Although India must pursue the possibility of an alliance with the US to distance Pakistan from the US, we still must not completely shut the door to another possible alternative of BRIC alliance (Brazil-Russia-India-China) should the US throw its weight behind Pakistan.

It would be highly unlikely that both China and US would support a quasi-file-state like Pakistan leaving India in the lurch. Should the US be compelled to support Pakistan for the cause of WOT, China might see for itself a window of oppurtunity to form a bigger and better alliance with India and would be only too happy to let go of a smaller/weaker Pakistan in favour of a mighter India-China alliance and needless to say Russia would be only to happy to lead such an allince and also act as a mediator-facilitator between India and China.


136 posted on 05/31/2005 6:48:45 AM PDT by Gengis Khan (Since light travels faster than sound, people appear bright until u hear them speak.)
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