Poland's Jobless Rate Falls to 18.8 Pct.

AP ^ | May 25, 2005

[Righty_McRight]

Poland's Jobless Rate Falls to 18.8 Pct. Wednesday May 25, 5:48 am ET Poland's Jobless Rate Falls to 18.8 Percent in April

WARSAW, Poland (AP) -- Poland's jobless rate fell to 18.8 percent in April, from 19.3 percent the previous month, according to government data released Wednesday. The Central Statistical Office said the April figure compared with a jobless rate of 19.9 percent in the same month last year.

In total, some 2.96 million people were out of work in April in the nation of 38 million, one of 10 mostly ex-communist countries that joined the European Union in May last year.

Despite healthy economic growth, Poland has the highest jobless rate in the 25-member bloc.

[jb6]

You are boring, and you must be really blind if you don’t see that most of new EU members are not socialist as you claiming.

Yeah, that's why you're ruled by the renamed communist party. Czech is also very socialist.

Poland has unemployment 1,1% lower, than in last year.

As of this month. Compare last month's to the same month a year before, where it was basically the same.

High unemployment is because Poland switched from communist system. We need at least three or four years to achieve 10%.

Funny, why then does Russia, Ukraine, Hungary, Bulgaria, Czech not enjoy the same high levels of unemployment. You're in the leage of Moldovia (communist), Slovakia, Germany (socialists), France (socialists), Italy (socialist, though at least the president is a capitalist).

[Lukasz]

Yeah, that's why you're ruled by the renamed communist party. Czech is also very socialist.

But before we were ruled by right wing government. Socialist are such a losers that is why they are hated even by leftist voters. Czech indeed are socialist, they are exception, that is why I wrote “most of new members”.

Funny, why then does Russia, Ukraine, Hungary, Bulgaria, Czech not enjoy the same high levels of unemployment. You're in the leage of Moldovia (communist), Slovakia, Germany (socialists), France (socialists), Italy (socialist, though at least the president is a capitalist).

When Russia and Ukraine will be on Polish stage of reforms then we will compare them to Poland. Also, you cannot compare Poland to such a little states like Czech Rep., Bulgaria or Hungary. Poland is completely different country with completely different problems. We had over-employment in such sectors like agriculture, heave industry, coal mining, large percent of people were employed there. After collapse of communist system large part of production in this sectors became unprofitable. In above mentioned “small” countries, these sectors of economy were minimal. And I would like to have such unemployment like in Germany, for the beginning of course.

[jb6]

When Russia and Ukraine will be on Polish stage of reforms then we will compare them to Poland. Also, you cannot compare Poland to such a little states like Czech Rep., Bulgaria or Hungary.

Using that scale, we could say, you can't compare Poland to Russia since it is a little state). Which stage of reforms would it be? The flat tax rate? The death of the sales tax? The unemployment rates? The growth rates? The reforms in the size of government?

[Lukasz]

Using that scale, we could say, you can't compare Poland to Russia since it is a little state

I think that these three countries (especially Poland and Ukraine) had a bit similar systems, heavy industry, mining.. Come on, introducing flax tax is not enough, Russian economy exist mostly because of gas and oil, that is whole secret. Russia is not even really democratic, then want do you want to compare. They still using this old communist practices with over-employment, they did privatized few firms and mostly to loyal oligarchs. There is nothing to compare here, don’t waste my time.

[jb6]

Russian economy exist mostly because of gas and oil, that is whole secret.

Yes, we'll pretend the IT, the chemical plants, the coal extraction, the heavy truck and tractor plants, the 6 new foreign auto plants don't exist. I suppose you've also never heard of companies like J7 juices or Baltica either (on the food side) or the other plethra of companies. The heavy tankers and transports, etc. Oh and by the way, saying that your extraction industry is somehow better because it's coal and not that gas/oil (which is in much higher demand anyways) is plain silly.

here or go to the CIA world fact book

Industries: complete range of mining and extractive industries producing coal, oil, gas, chemicals, and metals; all forms of machine building from rolling mills to high-performance aircraft and space vehicles; shipbuilding; road and rail transportation equipment; communications equipment; agricultural machinery, tractors, and construction equipment; electric power generating and transmitting equipment; medical and scientific instruments; consumer durables, textiles, foodstuffs, handicrafts

[jb6]

They still using this old communist practices with over-employment, they did privatized few firms and mostly to loyal oligarchs.

Hardly. I guess you missed the massive unemployment of the early 1990s. It's called reform and a growth rate of around 6-8% yearly for the past 6 years, while real salaries have averaged a 12% growth rate post inflation. They are also running a balanced budget with a large reserve, while Poland is running huge deficits to keep it's 18.8% from rebelling.

[Lukasz]

From your link, should I say more?

Russia ended 2003 with its fifth straight year of growth, averaging 6.5% annually since the financial crisis of 1998. Although high oil prices and a relatively cheap ruble are important drivers of this economic rebound, since 2000 investment and consumer-driven demand have played a noticeably increasing role. Real fixed capital investments have averaged gains greater than 10% over the last four years and real personal incomes have averaged increases over 12%. Russia has also improved its international financial position since the 1998 financial crisis, with its foreign debt declining from 90% of GDP to around 28%. Strong oil export earnings have allowed Russia to increase its foreign reserves from only $12 billion to some $80 billion. These achievements, along with a renewed government effort to advance structural reforms, have raised business and investor confidence in Russia's economic prospects. Nevertheless, serious problems persist. Oil, natural gas, metals, and timber account for more than 80% of exports, leaving the country vulnerable to swings in world prices. Russia's manufacturing base is dilapidated and must be replaced or modernized if the country is to achieve broad-based economic growth. Other problems include a weak banking system, a poor business climate that discourages both domestic and foreign investors, corruption, local and regional government intervention in the courts, and widespread lack of trust in institutions. In addition, a string of investigations launched against a major Russian oil company, culminating with the arrest of its CEO in the fall of 2003, have raised concerns by some observers that President PUTIN is granting more influence to forces within his government that desire to reassert state control over the economy.

[jb6]

One of the keys we wouldn't want you to miss in all that:

These achievements, along with a renewed government effort to advance structural reforms, have raised business and investor confidence in Russia's economic prospects.

[Lukasz]

But this is the most important part:

Nevertheless, serious problems persist. Oil, natural gas, metals, and timber account for more than 80% of exports, leaving the country vulnerable to swings in world prices. Russia's manufacturing base is dilapidated and must be replaced or modernized if the country is to achieve broad-based economic growth. Other problems include a weak banking system, a poor business climate that discourages both domestic and foreign investors, corruption, local and regional government intervention in the courts, and widespread lack of trust in institutions. In addition, a string of investigations launched against a major Russian oil company, culminating with the arrest of its CEO in the fall of 2003, have raised concerns by some observers that President PUTIN is granting more influence to forces within his government that desire to reassert state control over the economy.

[jb6]

This year's CIA World Fact book

Russia

Life expectancy at birth:
total population: 67.1 years
male: 60.55 years (That's up from 54 only 3 years ago)
female: 74.04 years (2005 est.)

GDP: purchasing power parity - $1.408 trillion (2004 est.)

GDP - composition by sector:
agriculture: 4.9% industry: 33.9% services: 61.2% (2004 est.)

Investment (gross fixed): 19.1% of GDP (2004 est.)

Public debt: 28.2% of GDP (2004 est.)

Industrial production growth rate: 6.4% (2004 est.)

Exports: $162.5 billion (2004 est.)

Exports - commodities: petroleum and petroleum products, natural gas, wood and wood products, metals, chemicals, and a wide variety of civilian and military manufactures

Debt - external: $169.6 billion (2004 est.)

POLAND:

Life expectancy at birth:
total population: 74.41 years
male: 70.3 years
female: 78.76 years (2005 est.)

Economy - overview: Poland has steadfastly pursued a policy of economic liberalization throughout the 1990s and today stands out as a success story among transition economies. Even so, much remains to be done, especially in bringing down unemployment. The privatization of small and medium-sized state-owned companies and a liberal law on establishing new firms has encouraged the development of the private business sector, but legal and bureaucratic obstacles alongside persistent corruption are hampering its further development. Poland's agricultural sector remains handicapped by surplus labor, inefficient small farms, and lack of investment. Restructuring and privatization of "sensitive sectors" (e.g., coal, steel, railroads, and energy), while recently initiated, have stalled. Reforms in health care, education, the pension system, and state administration have resulted in larger-than-expected fiscal pressures. Further progress in public finance depends mainly on reducing losses in Polish state enterprises, restraining entitlements, and overhauling the tax code to incorporate the growing gray economy and farmers, most of whom pay no tax. The government has introduced a package of social and administrative spending cuts to reduce public spending by about $17 billion through 2007. Additional reductions are under discussion in the legislature but could be trumped by election-year politics in 2005. Poland joined the EU in May 2004, and surging exports to the EU contributed to Poland's strong growth in 2004, though its competitiveness could be threatened by the zloty's appreciation. GDP per capita roughly equals that of the three Baltic states. Poland stands to benefit from nearly $13.5 billion in EU funds, available through 2006. Farmers have already begun to reap the rewards of membership via higher food prices and EU agricultural subsidies [So it's basing extra growth on hand outs, wonder how long those will last with the rest of the EU flushing their economies]

GDP: purchasing power parity - $463 billion (2004 est.)

GDP - real growth rate: 5.6% (2004 est.)

Investment (gross fixed): 18.4% of GDP (2004 est.)

Unemployment rate: 19.5% (2004 est.)

Public debt: 49.9% of GDP (2004 est.)

Industrial production growth rate: 10% (2004 est.)

Exports: $75.98 billion f.o.b. (2004 est.)

Imports: $81.61 billion f.o.b. (2004 est.)

TRADE DEFICIT!

Exports - commodities: machinery and transport equipment 37.8%, intermediate manufactured goods 23.7%, miscellaneous manufactured goods 17.1%, food and live animals 7.6% (2003)

Debt - external: $99.15 billion (2004 est.)

But one of the MAIN THINGS TO CONSIDER:

Russia:
Budget:
revenues: $106.4 billion
expenditures: $93.33 billion, including capital expenditures of NA (2004 est.)

Poland
Budget:
revenues: $44.52 billion
expenditures: $54.93 billion, including capital
expenditures of NA (2004 est.)

Therefore: Poland has massive unemployment, running a government and a trade deficit. Has an economy of about 24% the size of Russia's but a debt of almost 60% of Russia's and while Russia relies on high oil prices to keep it's burst up, Poland is relying on high subsidies (hand outs) from a collapsing EU economy.

[j23]

Only 24%?? God help us, we're doomed!!!

JB6, why don't you emigrate to Russia? It's such a wonderful place! You can have as much oil there as you want. I suppose Russia is much better than America (not to mention China, the biggest capitalist country in the world), what do you think?
You can swap you passport with with Zhirinovski.

[Hoplite]

Russia
GDP 2004: $9,800
GDP growth: 6.7%
Inflation rate: 11.5%
Population growth: -0.37%

Ergo, $9,800 * (1 + .067) * (1 - .115) / (1 - .0037) = $9,288

Poland
GDP 2004: $12,000
GDP growth: 5.6%
Inflation rate: 3.4%
Population growth: .03%

Ergo, $12,000 * (1 + .056) * (1 - .034) / (1 + .0003)= $12,237

In real terms, over the course of 2004, Russians would have grown poorer, whereas Poles would have grown richer.

Since it's 2005 now, and you have, I assume, some knowledge (whether first or second hand) of the Polish side of the equation, are things improving in Poland, economy wise, and is there a "gray market" which accounts for some of the unemployed? (Working, but not on the books for tax purposes.)

[Lukasz]

In first quarter of 2005, GDP grow was 2,9% (because of “base effect”). Experts expect that in second quarter we will have 3,9%, third quarter 4,5% and four quarter 4,6%. Generally GDP grow for 2005 should be 4,0%.

Inflation rate 3,2%

GDP per capita $13,275

About gray market, hard to tell. For sure many people are working illegally. But for sure situation isn’t worse than it was before.

[jb6]

not to mention China, the biggest capitalist country in the world

Gads, you've got a lot to learn if you believe this crap.

[jb6]

In real terms, over the course of 2004, Russians would have grown poorer, whereas Poles would have grown richer.

Lets try to tell some truth shall we. Yes they have but it was because of the falling dollar value, since most Russians are paid in dollars. But why mention the details. Oh, by the way, missed you on all the Kosovo threads lately. Hehehehe

[kabar]

They already have the 3d most powerful economy in the EU, if I'm not mistaken.

How do define "most powerful?" Germany, France, UK, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden, and Austria have larger economies.

In GDP per capita, Poland is 63rd in the world and well down the list of EU countries.

[cynicom]

American "unemployed" would be that high or higher if we counted the people on the dole as unemployed.

[Sofa King]

"In 5 years, Poland and several other former Soviet Bloc countries will be the envy of europe."

Ironic, since Europe is currently on it's way to become the new Soviet Bloc.

[K. Smirnov]

Good for you! Can sincerely say that.

What I do wonder about is that discussion. Does jobless rate decrease in Poland mean that it will increase in Russia? Obviously not. Why do we have to keep threading on water: Poland-Russia, Russia-Poland, Poland-Russia.

For me (I do live in Russia) it sounds like when someone on FR speaks about Polish achievements (even of minute ones), it somehow swings a discussion towards the same old song.

I repeat once again. If Poland managed to decrease jobless rate - good for her! If my neighbour makes his living better by working hard, thumbs up for him!

[Lukasz]

I wish Russia to become a prosperous state, it would improve Polish-Russian relations both political and economical. Note that I didn’t started to write about Russia in this thread, “jb6” did it. My arguments were not directed against Russia, he (jb6) got what he wanted, the truth.