Posted on 05/25/2005 6:28:42 AM PDT by GaryL
All you conservatives out there – listen up! Take a deep breath! Climb down from the ledge! Chill out! Things are not as bad as they seem! As a matter of fact, things are downright rosy!
In spite of what all the conservative pundits are saying – including Rush Limbaugh, Bill Bennett, Laura Ingraham, Thomas Sowell – we did not get rolled in Monday’s deal with the Democrats. As a matter of fact, it’s just the opposite. The Democrats have been taken to the cleaners…only they don’t know it yet! As usual, they have followed Teddy Kennedy’s advice and he has led them into another political disaster.
The problem is that no one – including our side - is looking at the big picture. What actually happened as a result of this deal is that, for all practical purposes, the filibuster as a means to obstruct judicial nominees is dead! Isn’t that what we wanted in the first place? And like Reagan winning the Cold War without firing a shot, we achieved this goal without having to initiate the so-called “nuclear option,” and thus avoided taking the huge hit from the mainstream media. The MSM was waiting with bated breath, ready to pounce on the Republicans like a cat on a cornered mouse. Can’t you just hear them repeating the mantra “…and the Republicans actually changed the rules in the middle of the debate!”
In the first place, we now will get confirmed the three nominees deemed by the Democrats to be the most “extreme”: Pricilla Owens, Janice Rodgers Brown, and William Pryor. OK. Follow me on this. If these three are the most “extreme” - by the Democrats own definition - what does that make the others? That’s right…moderates! Does anyone really believe that the Democrats will now resurrect the filibuster to obstruct “moderate judges”? Of course not! Majority Leader Frist has vowed that all of the remaining judges will be put forward for votes promptly, possibly within a week or two. Should the Democrats be foolish enough to filibuster any of these “moderates,” he has also vowed again to ignite the “nuclear option.” All the centrist Republicans who supported the agreement – including Susan Collins and Lindsey Graham – have likewise vowed to support Frist should it become necessary. Let me see…they give up the filibuster while we retain the right to use the “nuclear option” against the filibuster and have become united in our opposition to it. Sounds like a victory to me!
How about the seven Democratic “centrist” senators? I doubt very seriously that any of them would support a filibuster at this stage of any kind, most especially against the remaining “moderate” judges. Guess what. These people have been looking for a way to dissociate themselves from the Teddy Kennedy wing of their party… and now they have found it. Trust me…THE FILIBUSTER IS DEAD! Without these seven senators, the Democrats couldn’t filibuster Attila the Hun!
And don’t you see how silly the Democrats are looking already? What was all the fuss about Pricilla Owens in the first place that they had to block her for four years? This so-called “extremist” will be confirmed today with a sizeable number of their own party voting for her! That’s some “extremist!” In other words, they’ve proven again for all to see that you can’t trust their judgment on who is really “extremist” and who isn’t. Like the little boy who cried wolf, their use of the label “extremist” has a definite “hollow ring” to it.
Let’s recap: the Republicans have effective eliminated the filibuster without taking the huge media hit, while letting it be know that they retain the threat of the “nuclear option,” with their seven senators on record as supporting Frist should the Democrats be foolish to try the filibuster again. In addition, the Republicans appear as the “moderates” in the debate, willing to try compromise to avoid a senate showdown. As an added side benefit, John McClain – by taking the lead on this and being so willing to side with the Democrats – has shown once again that he can’t be trusted and for all practical purposes has committed political suicide. Can anyone imagine him winning a single Republican primary in 2008? As usual the media has got it wrong again, making McCain the winner and Frist the loser.
All in all, not a bad day’s work!
Thanks Jorge. I'm glad you agree with my analysis.
Yes, including the headaches and heartaches.
Harry Reid on the second day after you "won" has already said they will filibuster judges. John McVainiac, a lying quisling, sold you a bridge, and you my good friends, seem to have bought it, hook, line, and sinker.
Me thinks its better to admit when one has been rolled and look for a new game plan rather than delude oneself by "declaring victory" ...
They're already paying.
The first day they've gotten a Bush nominee confirmed who was held up for years.
What a bunch of losers.
3 of 10 is BETTER than ZERO.
Rush is NOT right.
Yes, we got 3 judges, which is like scoring a couple of hoops in a basketball game. This does NOT equal winning the basketball game. You are dumbing down victory.
Rush IS Right.
Yeah, and a punch in the face is better than a kick in the nuts. The choice wasn't between 3 or 0. It was a choice between 3 and 10. The 7 traitors chose 3.
You could be right. But it sounds altogether too Panglossian for me. Your argument rests on the assumption that the 7 'moderates' actually want conservative justices on the Supreme Court--they just didn't want to vote for the nuclear option. Thus, the argument goes, the compromise frees them from their scruples about the nuclear option and they are now free to vote for the conservative justices they truly want.
I have a really hard time with that assumption. I think the problem is that the moderates DON'T WANT conservative justices any more than does Harry Reid. So the compromise is really a well conceived and executed plan to let them defeat conservative nominees and buy some political cover as 'centrist peace makers.'
A sufficiently ruthless game plan can probably break this coalition. But sitting around waiting for Karl Rove's master scheme to unfold will result in a supreme court that is no different than today's supreme court. There was no master scheme. The 48 real R's were had by a moderate putsch. All the momentum now is pushing everyone toward a continued activist court. Without a concerted effort by the administration, senate leadership and conservatives burning up the phone lines to the wobblers, that's just what we will get.
I usually counsel moderation in response to most political developments. But now is the time for white-hot anger aimed straight at the seven and at the Senate Leadership for blowing this. They need to feel the price we will make them pay if we have 20 more years of an activist court driving this country to the left. That is, if a conservative court is important to you.
The way I break this down, there is a 10% chance that the cheery optimists are right. Karl Rove maneuvered the whole thing and the dems have been strategerized. There's about a 90% chance this was a moderate (and to date successful) putsch against the majority R's designed to prevent a conservative supreme court.
Either way, livid anger from the base is the appropriate response. If I am wrong and the Panglossians are right (and they might be), our anger does no harm. The actors knew they would get it when they volunteered to be the bad guys in Karl Rove's elaborate little scheme. In fact, it not only does no harm, its a good thing if the folks in Washington are reminded periodically that we are watching. OTOH, If I'm right, then conservative anger and a willingness to walk from the party if this betrayal holds, is one of the key elements in roping the bad guys back into the coalition. It will help the Administration and the Senate Leadership remember not to go wobbly.
Take a look at who's crying:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=3714550&mesg_id=3714550
I could clearly turn out to be wrong, it wouldn't be the first time a politician lied to me. I compare what I am seeing now to difficult customer situations I have been in where executives draw hard dark lines and then some more agreeable group goes in a back room and cooks up a solution that allows everyone to save face. The vote on Owen is a first step. For me, I will know I have been had if any of the seven Republicans fails to vote for cloture on any of the eight judges. That will clearly signal to me that they; 1) Through said nominee under the bus as part of the deal, 2) compromised on the "all nominees get an up or down vote" principal. That said, I fully expect some or all of the seven republicans to vote against confirmation on one or more of the nominees as part of the deal. What we need Frist to do now is line up the remaining 7 pending nominees and Bolton in the hallway and run them through. That will test whether the so called deal is worth the news it got..
I suspect there was a complicated deal off the books about the remaining nominees. Some won't get confirmed. However, the acid test for me is what happens on the SC nominees. The direction of the judiciary cannot be changed except from the top.
Nope. But not for the reasons you suspect. They were at the white house because they were an affirmative action photo op for the white house. The dems gave on them because they didn't want to go after women and minorities for the cloture fight.
If you are correct that Frist did not have the votes, that makes the deal a *little* sweeter.
But it seems most observers felt he did have the votes.
But nobody was sure were they?
The risk, even the smallest risk, of losing on a vote to "go nuclear" would not have been prudent. I don't even want to think about what a loss on that vote would mean....
The guy in control is McCain. If McPain will declare a violation of the deal when the Dims resume the filibuster, then the press will back off and the Dims would be rolled over. I don't think Graham has the cohones to go a different direction than McCain.
The republicans are even too spineless to force the democrats to do that. The senate republican leadership is a joke and treats the body as a social club.
It would have helped to force republicans to stand up and be republicans. Those republicans from red states that did not vote on the side of the republicans could be cut off from the party.
Seriously, what good are they if they are going to vote as democrats? Guys like McCain do far damage as part of the republican party than they would if they would be forced to reveal their true allegiance and change parties.
I don't have a problem with the blue state republicans as they at least vote conservative 60% or 70% of the time. There is no way a hard line conservative would ever get elected in the heavily liberal blue states and the alternative would be a full blown socialist democrat.
The problem are the red state republicans like Graham. If they knew that he was going to act like a member of the democratic party, the people of South Carolina would have sent a real conservative to the senate. I'm not sure if there is a state to recall senator, but if there is SC should seriously look into it.
McCain is untouchable since he was a POW so its better that he just switch parties.
Good one, Lancey!
You're assuming that Frist was going to nuke the Dems.
I have my doubts.
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