This was a win for Frist and a nail in McCains presidential coffin. McCain dissed religious and cultural conservatives across the country with his stunt. He doen't have a chance at the nomination. Don't be surprised if he pulls a Perot and goes independent to split the vote to insure a dem victory.
I think you are right. He will go indy when he realizes he has not shot at the Republican nomination.
Hillary
vs
McCain
vs
Republican
Who wins?
Unfortunately it wouldn't surprise me if he goes indy, but I'm not so sure it would result in a Dem victory. As we have seen for years, much of his support comes from Dems and Indies. The GOP base doesn't like him. So he'll get a little bleed-off from the Pubbies, a lot from the indies, and some from the Dems. Obviously a lot would depend on the other candidates, but I'd say the numbers would marginally favor the GOP.