Posted on 05/05/2005 7:59:15 AM PDT by tellw
FORECASTS OF TORY ‘CATASTROPE’ AND EXAMINING THE PARLIAMENTARY SEATS AT RISK
A bad sign for the Tories: The Daily Telegraph, a respected and pugnacious right-of-center newspaper, is forecasting a “catastrophe” for the Conservative party. Analyst Anthony King:
YouGov's final campaign survey for the Telegraph - based on interviews yesterday and the day before with nearly 4,000 electors across Britain - suggests that the Tories are heading for yet another catastrophic defeat.Far from improving their position during the final days of the campaign, they have apparently slipped back.
According to YouGov, 37 per cent of voters have already cast postal ballots for Labour or seem likely to vote Labour today. For their part the Conservatives began the campaign on 35 per cent, but only 32 per cent want to back them now.
But I’m looking at two lists of the 100 most competitive seats in Parliament – one in the London Times and one in the London Independent. (They overlap a great deal, but not completely.)
Currently the Labour Party has a 160 seat margin in the 659 seat Parliament – a majority that appears to be pretty much maxed out. The Times sees the Labour Party targeting only five Tory seats, the Independent lists 10.
There are 50 Labour seats that the Tories could win according to the Independent; 43 according to the Times. The Tories also are aiming at 15 Liberal Democrat seats according to the Times, 10 by the Independent’s count.
The Liberal Democrats – the third party somewhat analogous to the Green Party here in the U.S. – are targeting 10 Labour seats according to the Independent, 15 to the Times. Their top man Charles Kennedy has been campaigning heavily in these Labour districts. But both papers say the Liberal Democrats are also eyeing 20 Tory seats (including Michael Howard’s Folkestone & Hythe seat).
Looking at the range, it seems safe to say that the absolute best case scenario for Labour would only give them a few more seats. Much more likely, their majority sinks to the low three figures, although some are predicting it to shrink to half its current size.
Conservatives have the most “low-hanging fruit” – seats where just a slightly better performance by their candidate, or a worse performance by Labour, would swing the seat. In fact, by my estimate, if the Conservatives picked up just 15 percent of the third-party total in the closest races (using figures from the 2001 election), they would gain 16 seats. A twenty percent increase would yield about 20 seats.
The Liberal Democrats have almost as much low-hanging fruit as the Conservatives – and one figures they’ll be picking up a good share of anti-war Labour voters who want to punish Blair. It’s almost impossible to imagine they won’t pick up seats, with a safe prediction placing their pickup in the range of 15 to 20 seats.
Walter Rodgers on CNN International, a moment ago: "Due to some draconian election laws, we're not allowed to talk to voters after they cast their ballot. We're not allowed to say which issues matter most to voters, as that could be seen as attempting to influence the election. We're not even allowed to mention the candidates' names. So, later tonight we will see if Prime Minister X has been reelected for a historic third term. And if you really want to know what the voters think, go to a pub, and buy them a pint of ale."
Are there disenfranchised voters in Manchester yet?
Those ads were actually spoofs put up by an independent agency. They were fantastic, though.
Good catch! Thanks for pointing that out. I hadn't noticed, but you are right.
I predict a Labour win - with an 80 to 100 seat majority.
The main beneficiaries will be the Liberal Democrats - but some significant Tory gains.
Regards, Ivan
Eastern Standard Time is +5R
GMT is +0Z
During the summer months Britain shifts to -1A, The East Coast shifts to +4Q
IOT, we're always five hours behind Britain.
Thursday, May 5
C-SPAN Simulcast of BBC
British Election Coverage
On C-SPAN2 at 5pm ET
If you want some entertainment before the results, may I suggest going to this BBC Election Site page ...
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/basics/default.stm
... and looking at the list of "party websites". So far only the three main parties have been getting a mention but there are some really far-out ones running too in a lot of places.
More than half of them would certainly merit a "barf alert" so please take that as read.
I was thinking EXACTLY the same thing. Very observant of you!
The guys at National Review are hoping for a win by the Conservatives. They see Blair's Eurocentrism as a liability that outweighs his support for the war at this point.
Could be spun as a win-win for the Tories, really. If Labour gets its majority pared down by almost half, that could be seen as anger at the left wing, but Tony Blair returning as PM could be a reward for a staunch Iraq War ally, regardless of what the European press thinks.
JMHO.
"There could be enough Labor Party voters who are upset enough with Blair to vote Lib Dem or stay home and give the election to the Conservatives"
Labour. If you're going to comment on our politics, at least spell the names right ;)
Found a better link with more of the flaky parties on it.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/basics/4434089.stm
Hi there....glad to see you chimed in....I hope you are right about the Tories...
slick willie will be the first to take credit for Blair's victory.
Brown is not a liberal in the American sense. He is an old-fashioned 70s style socialist. The fact that no-one, including the Conservatives, have made this point stick yet is, in my opinion, the main reason that Labour are going to win the election.
But boy are we in for some bad times in the next parliament....
The Lib Dems wife looks like more of a man then Kennedy does
Oh gosh....I hadn't thought of that. Clinton did go over there and try to help him out, didn't he? It seems like I remember hearing that.
Well, you are right, Clinton will take credit and you know the press, especially the American press, will give Clinton all the glory.
Good grief!
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