Posted on 04/28/2005 7:47:25 AM PDT by SmithL
SACRAMENTO - What once seemed unthinkable has now become a reality: Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's approval ratings have plummeted to Gray Davis levels, and the cornerstone of his "Year For Reform" agenda is on shaky ground.
In 90 days, Schwarzenegger's popularity has tumbled by 20 points and potential voters are now voicing doubt about the state spending restrictions the Republican governor wants them to approve in a special election this fall.
Just 40 percent of Californians think Schwarzenegger is doing a good job and half say he's faring poorly, according to the nonpartisan survey by the Public Policy Institute of California released today.
The numbers suggest that the governor's attempt to get back on offense by jettisoning his contentious pension overhaul plan so he could focus on other proposals has so far failed. Now some Republican strategists are suggesting that Schwarzenegger consider abandoning the special election.
"When the governor's advisers laid out the special election based on reform, they were counting on a very popular governor to carry a load of fairly complicated ballot measures across the finish line," said Republican strategist Dan Schnur. "In this context, it may be hard for him to pull off an initiative load this fall."
But there are few indications that the governor plans to back down. On Wednesday, Schwarzenegger's political advisers met with top Republican lawmakers to discuss campaign strategy. Margita Thompson, the governor's press secretary, said the governor's approval ratings and support will rise once they begin a more aggressive campaign.
"The governor still believes that we need change and we need it as soon as we can," she said.
Heading into his second year as governor, Schwarzenegger had enviable support from two-thirds of Californians, including a majority of independent voters and more than 40 percent of Democrats.
But his support among Democrats and independents began to erode in January when he unveiled his 2005 agenda that took aim at Democrats and their union allies. Rather than accede to his demands, the governor's opponents quickly organized to challenge Schwarzenegger and his proposals.
The aggressive campaign, complete with millions of dollars in TV commercials attacking Schwarzenegger, has taken its toll. The governor's 20-point slide is more precipitous than Davis' tumble in 2001 when the Democratic governor stumbled through the state energy crisis. At that time, the governor's approval ratings fell from 62 percent to 46 percent over four months.
In a bid to get back on track, Schwarzenegger earlier this month abruptly pulled one of the four main pillars of his "Year for Reform" package that would have revamped state retirement plans. Support for the proposal dwindled as a parade of police and fire widows went public with concerns that the changes would deny them benefits.
At the time, Schwarzenegger aides trumpeted the move as a strategic retreat that would deprive Democratic opponents of their main bludgeon. Instead, it has allowed Schwarzenegger critics to turn their sights on the new centerpiece of his special election package: an initiative that could contain excessive state spending and revamp the formula for funding schools.
The poll found just 44 percent of likely voters favor the idea while 37 percent said they are opposed.
If the governor can't rally support for that proposal, which Thompson called "the most important leg of the stool," it could further undermine prospects for a special election this fall.
On Wednesday, according to the Los Angeles Times, the governor also suggested at a town hall forum in Fontana that he is open to delaying his proposal to redraw political lines in California. Schwarzenegger has been demanding that the state revamp the political map next year, but Democrats and other political reformers challenged that idea as unworkable and potentially unconstitutional.
Schwarzenegger indicated at the forum that he is not wedded to the mid-decade proposal. Should he back away from that demand, it would further diminish the momentum for a special election next year.
I am amazed that he didnt come in and slash and burn the entire bloated bureaucracy
He would have been a hero
or maybe reform doesn't sound so good once you get down to the actual cuts...
there is also that pesky detail of having to either have a referendum or a legislature that votes for his legislation, as well as a media that simply distorts his policies and proposals.
In my opinion, he waited too long. His first year in office he did nothing, except take out another huge bond issue to put the state further into debt and lower the bond ratings.
The one thing he seems to have accomplished is to help push through a huge slush fund for fetal stem cell research, not exactly a positive for social conservatives, and scientifically useless as well. Plus it committed the state to spending an extra 3 billion a year, hardly an example of fiscal conservatism in a tight spot.
Then he needs to go to the public like Reagan did.
Don't believe the polls. I have signed every petition he's got and so has everyone else.
"Then he needs to go to the public like Reagan did."
FYI: For almost 6 of his 8 years as president, President Reagan earned (Gallup) job approval ratings BELOW 49% and at times, below 39% . . . In fact, President Reagan's job approval ratings were in the high 50s and low 60s only for the 1/2 year before he was re-elected and the year after his re-election when the general public's perception of the economy was quite positive. When the stock market tumbled and Iran/Contra became an issue in 1986 Reagan's job approval ratings plummeted again.
Bottomline: MANY freepers use President Reagan's job approval ratings and policies as benchmarks for evaluating current Republicans (including President Bush whose average Gallup approval rating is 7 points higher than President Reagan's and has never fallen into the 30s); unfortunately, the MYTH often differs from the REALITY!
Bottomline: The Governor HAS gone to the people; however, when 'the people' start viewing the economy negatively, job approval ratings will suffer whether you're the Governor of California or a former/current president of the United States. The Governor just needs to do what's right, regardless of the polls!!
No he didn't. That's why he is in trouble.
Had he obstructed the process through use of his bloody pulpit and his veto he would still be riding the wave of fame and the entrenched Democratic oligarchy would be licking their wounds.
Instead we have a corrupt bay area politician openly challenging the governor and an anchor baby, elected by cultural separatists in a gerrymandered district, calling the shots and frustrating the Austrian Pretender at every turn.
Who is to blame for this mess. Clearly the Republican Party. They are the adults. The union supporters and the illegal immigrants are acting in character. They can't be blamed. That's just the way they are. Children will be children. The Republicans on the other hand should have known better than to back a liberal.
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