"In the Keegan excerpt I point out the moment when it might have appeared to the Kaiser that diplomacy won. It was not a sustainable position militarily, and he was ultimately convinced otherwise."
Such rubbish. Here above you attempt to soft-pedal the most authoritative comment by the most authoritative source. Yeah, Kaiser William II said that there was now "no excuse for war" after reading Serbia's capitulation to Austria's ultimatum, but somehow he must not have meant it, you attempt to infer *and* imply.
...And what's this "unsustainable position militarily" nonsense?! The Great Powers had already avoided a major war during the last Balkan War in 1912...it was hardly out of the question that it could have been avoided again 2 years later (save for some hot heads).
Let's try to keep a single chain of responses.
Keegan gets that point entirely wrong
How do you know that? Generally, historians have been biased toward Serbia and the Entente. So is Keegan. Yet, he paints a picture of essential rejection. And indeed, mobilizing the army, attaching conditions and rejecting the major demand amounts to a rejection.
You are probably right that Austria would have preferred a local war so that it could eliminate future threats from insurgents (a global war would have required Austria to fight on two fronts, north and south, and was not in Austrian interest). Buth this is a fault of intent only. Austria was injured, presented an ultimatum, and was within its rights to ignore a dithered response.
somehow [the Kaiser] must not have meant it, you attempt to infer *and* imply.
He must not have meant it, as evidenced by the fact that he declared war a few days later.
I explained what constituted the military imperative for war in #238.
All of this "who did what to who and when" is merely clouding what is a very simple issue.
The Serbian government sponsored a terrorist group and harbored a militant anti-Austrian streak in their efforts to rebuild a "Greater Serbia". Austria was fully justified in retaliation.
Responsibility for whether or not the war was localized is entirely on Russia for becoming involved, at the urging of the revenge-mad French.
Did the Central Powers provoke war? That is totally absurd, you don't provoke a war in which you will be outnumbered and surrounded at the very outset. Even Hitler wasn't that crazy.