Replies

Terrorism Summary 05/12/05

Agressive attacks in Iraq targeting Iraqi civilian/military/police. Meanwhile, US forces crush terrorist bases along the Syrian border, where they were relocated after Fallujah was cleaned out.. Nuclear threat from Iran and N. Korea continues to ratchet up.

Let me know if you want on or off the Ping list.

05/12/04 Current National Homeland Defense threat level is YELLOW

1. Attack threat windows - America
05/12/04 Primary Window: No significant windows currently identified.

05/12/04 Secondary windows: None currently identified.

2. Attack Indicators - America
05/12/05 Godzilla - I have not been able to identify any attack indicators. However the government appears edgy with two evacuations of the White House recently.

3. Current Terrorist Operations

AQ / OBL
05/12/05 Continued vague rumors of an impending OBL tape of some kind.

Southern ASIA Region

Indonesia - Updated State Dept. Travel Warning issued 05/10/05
05/11/05 The U.S. Department of State issued an updated Travel Warning for Indonesia on 10 May 2005. The statement begins as follows: "This Travel Warning is being issued to update security information in Indonesia and to note that the Department of State continues to warn U.S. citizens to defer all non-essential travel to the country. ..." While the Travel Warning reiterates the need for vigilance when traveling in Indonesia and states that the possibility of a terrorist attack in Indonesia remains high, the overall level of advice has not changed.
http://www.airsecurity.com/hotspots/hotspots.asp#106540

05/09/05 The army has maintained a high level of patrols and raids in Aceh, including reports of kidnapping relatives of known rebels (to induce their surrender). The religious and separatist violence in other parts of Indonesia has quieted down, so the army is piling on Aceh, determined to hunt down the several thousand rebels there that comprise the core of the separatist movement.
http://www.strategypage.com//fyeo/qndguide/default.asp?target=INDONES.HTm
Godzilla - notice that this country has been flagged for increased attacks for several months now.

Thailand
Monitoring - AQ attack watch #2 through 12/31/05
05/12/05 Tensions with neighboring Myanmar - see below

Myanmar
05/11/05 Tension stepped up along the Thai-Myanmar border in Thailand's northern province of Chiang Rai today when officials in the Myanmar town of Thachilek expelled all Thai nationals back onto the Thai soil. According to local reports, Thachilek officials said that they had to expel Thai nationals in order to search for suspected insurgents, following a series of bomb attacks on the Myanmar capital of Yangon last Saturday.
All Thai and other foreign nationals have been ordered to leave Thachilek by 18.30hrs today, and have been warned that anyone remaining in the town after that time will be expelled immediately unless they are in possession of an ID card issued by the Myanmar authorities. The move has particularly affected Thai traders in the Myanmar town who have been forced to shut up their shops and cross back over the border.
http://www.mcot.org/query.php?nid=38359

East ASIA Region

Phillipines
05/09/05 Australia warned on Friday of the risk of an imminent terrorist attack in the Philippines and urged its citizens to avoid tourist areas. “We continue to receive reports that terrorists in the region are planning attacks,” said an Australian foreign ministry statement posted on the Australian embassy’s website.
http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/theworld/2005/May/theworld_May127.xml§ion=theworld

N. Korea
05/12/05 Godzilla - Excavations continue at the suspected underground nuclear test site. N. Korea also has reportedly processed the remaining fuel rods, providing raw materials for as many as 9 nukes. Mixed signals from China as far as their response might be.

Middle East / SW Asia

Pakistan
05/11/05 On 10 May 2005, the U.S. Embassy in Karachi issued the following Warden Message: "The recent arrests by Pakistani authorities of senior Al Qaida figure Abu Faraj Al Libi and other Al Qaida members highlight the ongoing nature of the Global War On Terror. They also raise the possibility that Al Qaida elements may seek to retaliate against Pakistani and American interests that it may see as supporting activity against it.
"While we have no information that Al Qaida is planning to attack any specific target in Pakistan, in light of recent events all Americans visiting or resident in Pakistan should again review their own personal security practices, and ensure that they remain aware of both their own personal surroundings as they move about Pakistan and any ongoing developments in the Global War On Terror."
http://www.airsecurity.com/hotspots/hotspots.asp#106540

05/10/05 A more than six-month truce between the military government of Pakistan and al-Qaeda - negotiated by militant groups - has been shattered with the arrest of Abu Faraj al-Libbi of al-Qaeda and country-wide crackdowns on militant groups. Following Abu Faraj's apprehension last week in connection with two assassination attempts against Musharraf in 2003, the government placed the country on high security alert. Generally, such alerts remain in place for three to four days, but it is still in place, and is likely to remain so in the foreseeable future as military and security installations, important personalities and airports are considered at risk.
Asia Times Online has learned that Musharraf's administration secretly secured a deal with al-Qaeda after a series of attacks from the tribal belt of North West Frontier Province to the southern port city of Karachi rattled the country last year. Al-Qaeda has also openly called for the overthrow of Musharraf. The government had launched an unpopular intensive military operation in South Waziristan to root out al-Qaeda and foreign operators, resulting in the death of several hundred soldiers - the operation was bitterly opposed by local tribespeople. The initiative also resulted in a strong backlash within the army.
Last year's unrest included an attack on the Corps Commander Peshawar's residence, assaults on military convoys in cities such as Dera Ismail Khan and at Bannu airport, an attack on the Military Intelligence office in Kohat, one on the Corps Commander Karachi's motorcade, in addition to a suicide attempt against Shaukat Aziz when he was announced as a candidate for prime minister.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/GE10Df02.html

05/09/05 Pakistani intelligence agencies have uncovered Al Qaeda plans targeting President Musharraf, the US and other embassies and high commissions in Pakistan during May and June.
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_9-5-2005_pg1_4

05/09/05 The capture of so many al Qaeda leaders in Pakistan recently has revealed plans for additional assassination attacks on Pakistani president Musharraf, as well as attacks on Americans and other foreigners in Pakistan. Not unexpectedly, al Qaeda was buying weapons and explosives from the tribal areas along the Afghan border. The government was not surprised at that, as criminals have been going there for generations to buy weapons.
http://www.strategypage.com//fyeo/qndguide/default.asp?target=INDIA.HTm

Iran
05/11/05 Iran appears determined to back away from a deal with the European Union and end its suspension of some sensitive nuclear activities, dismissing the threat of being hauled before the UN Security Council as propaganda. "There is no legal basis for sending Iran's nuclear case to the UN Security Council, and this is nothing but media propaganda," Gholam Reza Aghazadeh, a vice president and head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organisation, was quoted as saying by state media Wednesday.
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20050511/ts_afp/irannuclear_050511114106
Godzilla - If Iran blows off the EU, expect the clock to start ticking towards a preemptive strike.

Kuwait
05/11/05 Reports emerging on 11 May 2005 quoted Kuwaiti security sources as stating that Kuwaiti authorities have tightened security measures at strategic sites and areas where foreigners reside. Authorities took this measure after receiving intelligence indicating that the Unity Brigades, a militant Yemeni organization with suspected ties to al-Qaeda, intended to stage attacks against these targets. Reports stated that the intelligence came from "a friendly country," but did not identify the source further.
http://www.airsecurity.com/hotspots/hotspots.asp#106540

Afghanistan
05/09/05 A deputy to Mullah Mohammad Omar [leader of the Taleban] says that the Taleban have neither talked with the Americans and the [Afghan] government nor do they intend to do so. A deputy of Mullah Mohammad Omar (who has two deputies), Mullah Abdol Ghani, who is also known as Mullah Beradar, telephoned the Afghan Islamic Press in Peshawar from an unknown location this evening. He said that "reports saying that the Taleban have held some sort of talks with the Americans or the government have no foundation." He added: "The Taleban have not held any talks whatsoever with the Americans or the government of Afghanistan and neither do they have any intention to do so."
http://www.sabawoon.com/news/miniheadlines.asp?dismode=article&artid=22502

Iraq
05/10/05 U.S. forces backed by helicopter gunships and warplanes swept through western Iraq near the Syrian border for a third day Tuesday, raiding desert outposts and safe houses belonging to insurgents, the U.S. military said. As many as 100 militants have been killed since Operation Matador, one of the largest American military offensives in Iraq in six months, began Saturday night in the border town of Qaim, 200 miles west of Baghdad, the military said.
http://ap.washingtontimes.com/dynamic/stories/I/IRAQ?SITE=DCTMS&SECTION=HOME

Egypt
05/09/05 Britain and the United States have warned their citizens against traveling to Egypt or visiting certain areas. The two countries said Westerners could remain the target of Islamic insurgents. "American citizens should maintain a heightened awareness of their surroundings and should not linger amid groups of tourists in public areas," the State Department said. …snip…
"All U.S. citizens are strongly urged to avoid crowded tourist areas in Cairo until the current threat environment diminishes," the State Department said. "Any suspicious behavior should be reported to authorities." …snip…
"A further attack in Cairo cannot be ruled out," the British Foreign Office said in a statement.
http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/05/front2453496.454861111.html

Israel
05/12/05 There have been scattered, common attacks, no serious incidents.

Africa

Algeria
05/11/05 Al-Qaeda in Algeria issued a letter on May 8th, 2005 decrying any action by militants towards surrender to the Algerian government during the government's amnesty period, implemented by Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika. The letter, written by Abu Soheib Miliani, describes a demoralized group "living in the mountain [and] in bad shape…[they]…are swinging between [accepting the Algerian government's offers of] forgiveness and humiliation or staying where they are". Despite demoralization of the movement, Miliani states that the "jihad in Algeria is ready…we are targeting the Jews and crusaders, individuals, embassies, and interests that are the enemy's…The [Islamic] nation is united in attacking them everywhere." They have "denounced any action which targets innocent civilians and all Algerian people" ..snip…
http://siteinstitute.org/bin/articles.cgi?ID=publications44205&Category=publications&Subcategory=0

Europe

Georgia
05/10/05 Georgia's security chief said Wednesday that an inactive grenade was found near the site where President Bush made a speech in Tbilisi.   Gela Bezhuashvili, secretary of the National Security Council, said the Soviet-era grenade was found 100 feet from the tribune where Bush spoke on Tuesday.
U.S. Secret Service spokesman Jonathan Cherry said Tuesday that his agency had been informed that a device, possibly a hand grenade, had been thrown near the stage during Bush's speech, hit someone in the crowd and fallen to the ground.   Bezhuashvili said, however, that it was not thrown but "found."    "The goal is clear - to frighten or to scare people and to attract the attention of the mass media," he said. "The goal has been reached and that is why I'm talking to you now."   "In any case there was no danger whatsoever for the presidents," he said, referring to Bush and Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili.
Bezhuashvili said the grenade was found in "inactive mode." He described it as an "engineering grenade" - one that is used for demolition or to simulate the effect of an artillery shell. Such grenades' blast-effect can be fatal at close range, but unlike offensive grenades, they are not designed to spread shrapnel.   "I am not an expert, but it was not possible to detonate it there," Bezhuashvili said. A spokeswoman for the U.S. Embassy, Khatiya Dzhindzhikhadze, said "this question will be resolved jointly by American and Georgian specialists."
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2005/5/10/225035.shtml
Godzilla - monitoring for follow-up reports. I think there is more to this than meets the eye.

Western Hemisphere

United States
05/09/05 A UN employee was being questioned by the FBI last night after two makeshift grenades exploded outside the British consulate in New York. The employee, from the Netherlands, was found loitering near the building shortly after the blast in the early hours of yesterday, according to law enforcement sources. The sources would not confirm whether he was a suspect.
http://news.scotsman.com/topics.cfm?tid=1&id=486822005

4. Attack method.
11/23/04 No real change in the preferred method of choice of AQ which are bombs - the bigger the better. There are special concerns regarding the use by terrorists of the following types of vehicles:

1. Uhaul type cargo trucks.
2. Gasoline / Propane supply / tanker trucks.
3. Emergency vehicles (ambulances, police cars, fire trucks)

5. Significant meetings canceled:
05/12/04 No new cancellations.

6. Security has been heightened in specific cities
05/12/04 NYC is at a locally declared ORANGE where it had been since. 9/11/01.
05/11/05 Washington DC briefly went to RED as F-16 fighters scrambled to intercept a way ward Cessna aircraft.

7. Military operations.
05/12/05 No announced operations out of normal.

8. Dept of Homeland Security. / State Department
05/11/05 Travel Warning
United States Department of State
Bureau of Consular Affairs
Washington, DC 20520
This information is current as of today, Wed May 11 08:20:25 2005.
INDONESIA
May 10, 2005
This Travel Warning is being issued to update security information in Indonesia and to note that the Department of State continues to warn U.S. citizens to defer all non-essential travel to the country. This warning supersedes the March 24, 2005 Travel Warning for Indonesia.

The Department urges Americans who choose to travel to Indonesia despite this Travel Warning to observe vigilant personal security precautions and to remain aware of the continued potential for terrorist attacks against Americans, U.S. or other Western interests in Indonesia. The potential remains for violence and terrorist actions against U.S. citizens and interests throughout the country.

The terrorist threat in Indonesia remains high. Attacks could occur at any time and could be directed against any location, including those frequented by foreigners and identifiably American or other western facilities or businesses in Indonesia. Such targets could include but are not limited to places where Americans and other Westerners live, congregate, shop or visit, including hotels, clubs, restaurants, shopping centers, identifiably Western businesses, housing compounds, transportation systems, places of worship, schools, or public recreation events. Reports suggest attacks could include targeting individual American citizens.

Jemaah Islamiah has cells in several Southeast Asian countries, including Indonesia, and connections with al-Qaeda. A terrorist bombing outside the Australian Embassy in Jakarta on September 9, 2004, killed eleven and injured more than 180 people. An August 2003 terrorist bombing at a major international hotel in Jakarta injured several American citizens, and seven Americans died in a terrorist attack in Denpasar, Bali in October 2002. …..snip…
http://travel.state.gov./travel/cis_pa_tw/tw/tw_918.html

9. Suspicious Domestic Incidents Not Currently Linked to Specific Terrorism Attempts
Godzilla - as of last report, the individuals in the aircraft were not going to be charged with anything

05/11/05 Parts of the White House, Capitol and Supreme Court were briefly evacuated Wednesday when a small plane violated restricted airspace over Washington, the White House said. …snip…
The plane was within three miles of the White House before it was turned away by the military aircraft, McClellan said. The terror alert level was raised to orange -- or high -- when the airspace incursion was first reported, and then raised to red -- severe -- when the pilot failed to respond to calls on his radio, McClellan said. The plane was escorted to a small airport in Frederick, Maryland. The pilot was being interviewed by local authorities and the Secret Service, McClellan said. …snip…
A handcuffed man, wearing shorts and a short-sleeve shirt was led into a police car on the runway after his plane was forced to land. The Cessna 152 is registered to the Vintage Aero Club in Smoketown, Pennsylvania.
http://www.cnn.com/2005/US/05/11/evacuation/index.html

05/11/05 The U.S. Capitol and White House were evacuated Wednesday after a small plane entered restricted airspace. Military jets scrambled to intercept the aircraft and fired warning flares. Two men in the aircraft were later taken into custody at a Maryland airport where the plane landed after a military escort.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/capital