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Commander Predicts Collapse of Taliban

KABUL, Afghanistan Apr 16, 2005 — America's senior military commander in Afghanistan warned Saturday that Taliban-linked terrorists might launch a large-scale attack in coming months in a desperate attempt to reverse their waning fortunes.

But Lt. Gen. David Barno said predicted the near-total collapse of the Taliban within a year.

"As these terrorist capabilities grow more and more limited, the hard-core fanatics will grow more and more desperate to try and do something to change the course of events in Afghanistan," Barno told a news conference. "Terrorists here in Afghanistan want to reassert themselves and I expect that they will be looking here, over the next six to nine months or so, to stage some type of high-visibility attack."

He did not give details or say whether he had specific intelligence reports.

"I think we must all remain realistic and clear-eyed with the understanding that the enemy is still dangerous. He's been reduced in his capabilities, but he remains a desperate foe who will try and create events and inflict losses," he said.

Barno noted that a number of senior insurgents have already abandoned the fight and said more would follow. However, he said a small number of hard-liners funded by al-Qaida were likely to continue the struggle indefinitely.

"The diverging organization that I see evolving over the next year or so (involves) much of the organization, probably most of it, I think collapsing and rejoining the Afghan political and economic process," Barno said at a news conference in the capital. "A small hard-core remnant of the Taliban which is essentially a wholly owned subsidiary of al-Qaida (will) continue to wage some degree of a terrorist fight."

Barno did not name any commanders who had turned themselves in, saying only: "In the last month or so we have seen very prominent figures come out in different parts of the country very unexpectedly in a couple of cases who were part of the leadership of the Taliban."

In March, Abdul Wahid, a powerful commander once suspected of helping the Taliban chief Mullah Omar escape capture, pledged his loyalty to the Afghan government and agreed to try to persuade other Taliban figures to join him.

Afghan officials say dozens of former Taliban officials and fighters have approached them about a reconciliation drive touted by U.S. military commanders as a way to undercut militants and allow a reduction in the 17,000-strong American force more than three years after the U.S.-led invasion.

However, few have come forward publicly

"My sense is that right now the leaders that are beginning to come across are testing the waters for larger groups," Barno said.

The U.S. commander said he believes there are about 2,000 Taliban fighters, the same number the military has used in the past. But he cautioned that there is no way to make an accurate estimate.

"This is not a large movement here in Afghanistan," he said.

Barno, who is expected to leave Kabul next month after 19 months in charge, also reiterated that the U.S. military would take a lead role in anti-narcotics efforts in a nation that produces the bulk of the world's heroin.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=676413&page=1

India’s major worry - Afghan Talibans crippled but not dead yet

India has warm-heartedly supported the Karzai Government of Afghanistan – the democratic coalition that is taking Afghan people towards mainstream of the world. Karzai Government is trying its best to negotiate a settlement with the Talibans and bring them to the mainstream Afghan politics. Talibans can become a major opposition party in Afghanistan if they decide to embrace democracy and discard militant jihadi traits. Karzai Government expressed hope and mentioned that many Talibani leaders are in touch with the Government for settling issues and participating in general Afghan prosperity.

But Talibanis came out and denied any such talks with the Government and also reiterated their supoort for a united Taliban under Mullah Omar.

According to reports from Afghanistan, Maulvi Abdul Kabir -- considered to be the second in command of the militant Islamist Taliban movement -- said April 16 that he was not involved in negotiations with Afghan President Hamid Karzai's government. In an audio message relayed to Reuters by satellite phone, a Taliban spokesm denied that there had been any talks between Kabir and Kabul or Washington and stressed that the Taliban remains united under the leadership of their founder Mullah Mohammed Omar. In the message, supposedly recorded on April 15th at an unknown location within the country, Kabir referred to himself as the head of the movement's political commission and said that his group was looking at giving up guerrilla warfare in favor of suicide operations. The statement from the deputy Taliban leader who used to be a the commander of the Taliban military forces in the east while they were in power in Kabul, comes in response to a claim by Afghan Chief Justice Fazl Hadi Shinwari that senior Taliban figures, including Kabir, had been in touch with him on ending the insurgency.

India has to worry with the Talibans. It is a ticking time bomb for India. Musharraf and its nuclear arsenals are dormant for the time being under Washington’s influence and international pressure. But Talibans eventually can come back to power in Afghanistan. That has happened again and again in Afghanistan. Fifteen years from today Taliban may be a “total tyranny “ of the world. They can influence Pakistan again and indirectly control the nuclear arsenal no matter what the status quo is today. The nukes in Pakistan with Talibani influence can become a serious threat to India, Israel, America and Russia.

http://www.indiadaily.com/editorial/2322.asp