The Next Pope? Twenty leading possibilities

National Catholic Reporter ^ | 4/2/2005 | John L. Allen

[sinkspur]

Who Will Be the Next Pope? These 20 candidates have possibilties By John L. Allen Jr. Rome

Prognostication is a notoriously hazardous business, and the trash heaps of church history are littered with the carcasses of journalists who have tried to predict the next pope. Almost no one, for example, correctly anticipated that the archbishop of Kraków, Karol Wojtyla, would emerge from the second conclave of 1978 as Pope John Paul II.

In that spirit, the intent here is not to "predict" who will become the next pope, which is a futile exercise. Instead, the aim is to identify cardinals whose backgrounds, accomplishments, and personalities guarantee they will at least get a serious look as possible papal material. Doing so will illustrate the criteria cardinals typically employ in trying to size up who among their peers might be able to step into the "Shoes of the Fisherman."

Will the next pope be one of these 20 men? Perhaps. But all are certainly under consideration, and that by itself makes them worth a look.

[sinkspur]

Lots like the bearded Ukrainian who is head of the Greek Eastern rite Catholics. I'm not sure where he lives and leads from, but he travels with an American passport and spent years living in America.

Huskar was an American citizen, until he forfeited his citizenship to return to his native Ukraine.

[sinkspur]

It is said that he who goes into the conclave as a strong candidate for pope comes out a cardinal.

It is said, but I don't know where that came from. In two out of the last five conclaves, the front-runner was elected (Eugenio Pacelli in 1939 and Giovanni Montini in 1963).

My own thought is that the cardinals will turn to an Italian again, to get his arms around the administrative issues of the Church. The foremost is the desire of most bishops for a decentralization of authority. A moderate like Tettamanzi is more likely to be amenable to this devolution.

OTOH, if the cardinals want someone who will be able to deal head-on with the Muslim emergence, Arinze is well-equipped for that challenge.

The informal conversations among the cardinals themselves over the next two weeks will set the stage for the conclave. You can bet the media will be doggin' these guys everywhere they go!

[cyncooper]

I just heard Cardinal McCarrick say just that LIVE on tv mere minutes ago.

He's one who votes.

[muir_redwoods]

It won't be an American and I'd be surprised if it were a European. A "Third World" cardinal would make a lot of sense at this time, especially an African.

We'll see.

[sinkspur]

With all the new Cardinals from the 3rd world, plus those from the rest of Europe, I would be betting against another Italian Pope this time around.

Well, mere numbers don't tell the story. It's not like "our part of the world versus your part of the world." Latin America and Africa hold more votes, combined, than any other bloc, so they will determine the future of the Church.

However, one must remember that the Pope is also the bishop of Rome, with all that entails. Many cardinals would like to "take a breather" by electing an interregnum who will not be the superstar that JPII was, but will focus on the Church, first and foremost. Others want to continue the social agenda.

So, who knows?

[EKrusling]

Now my memory isn't so great right now, but didn't JPII recently make one Cardinal who was not named, the general theory being that he would be persecuted if his identity were made known?

Now I cannot say I expect him, an unknown and so new to the red hat, to be picked. But I will say that I like the idea very much, and it's a possibility nobody seems to be considering.

I imagine he must be a bishop in China, his flock oppressed by the communists in much the same way John Paul's Poles were. To survive in those conditions he'd have to be a man of powerful faith, who understands its importance in a way we so accustomed to simple freedoms may not.

Of course, I don't really know anything about what sort of man this unnamed Cardinal is. This is all speculation on my part. But I don't really care for all this talk of a transitional or cooling-off type of pope. The potential to choose another freedom fighter like the one who just passed has real value in my eyes.

[Babu]

Prior to the late Pope, there was 455 years of uninterrupted Italian popes.

Me figures their thoughts are "OK, we gave you furuhners a shot at it for a while, now we're takin' it back, thank you very much ..."

My money is on a an aged Italian (pope, not wine).

[longtermmemmory]

How about telling us which ones are "liberals" (suport liberal views of the church. Changing religion to suit man.)

[sinkspur]

But I don't really care for all this talk of a transitional or cooling-off type of pope. The potential to choose another freedom fighter like the one who just passed has real value in my eyes.

Historically, after a very long papacy, cardinals choose someone they believe won't stick around very long. They did it after Pius IX in 1878 (though Leo XIII lived into his 90s), and after Pius XII in 1958.

China is not viewed, in the eyes of the Church, with near the alarm that the Soviet Union inspired. The rise of Islam is considered much more urgent.

[Siobhan]

That is why Cardinal Arinze is such an important candidate.

[Siobhan]

sitetest

Thank you for the excellent suggestion on the Novena to the HOly Ghost.

Siobhan

[Hand em their arse]

"He has rejected the identification of Islam with terrorism,"


Strike one, to me??

[Cowboy Bob]

The main question is will someone from the 3rd world become Pope which would be a first.

I noticed too that there were a lot of "3rd Worlders" on the list. I guess there are a lot of people who want to "feel good" about themselves.

A "3rd Worlder" will do for the Catholic Church what Kofi Annan did for the UN.

Why is no Irishman being considered for Pope?

[Siobhan]

I think you would be pleased with Ivan Cardinal Dias or the good Cardinal from Argentina.

[Mannaggia l'America]

Lubomyr Husar of the Ukraine, perhaps soon to be known as Pope Santa Claus I.

Or Pope C. Evert Koop I

[Siobhan]

Hummes is seen as a "German" and in general that just isn't a good thing in the Conclave up to now. (He is a German-Brazilian.)