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What Happens Once the Oil Runs Out?
NY Times ^ | March 25, 2005 | KENNETH S. DEFFEYES

Posted on 03/25/2005 6:50:44 PM PST by neverdem

OP-ED CONTRIBUTOR

Princeton, N.J.

PRESIDENT BUSH'S hopes for the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge came one step closer to reality last week. While Congress must still pass a law to allow drilling in the refuge, the Senate voted to include oil revenues from such drilling in the budget, making eventual approval of the president's plan more likely.

Yet the debate over drilling in the Arctic refuge has been oddly beside the point. In fact, it may be distracting us from a far more important problem: a looming world oil shortage.

The environmental argument over drilling in the refuge has often been portrayed as "tree huggers" versus "dirty drillers" (although, as a matter of fact, the north coastal plain of Alaska happens to have no trees to hug). Even as we concede that this is an oversimplification, we should also ask how a successful drilling operation would affect American oil production.

The United States Geological Survey has estimated that the Arctic oil field is likely to be at least half the size of the Prudhoe Bay oil field, almost 100 miles to the west. Opening that oil field was like hitting a grand slam: Prudhoe Bay, which has already produced more than 13 billion barrels, is the biggest American oil field. (I was once at a party with a bunch of geologists from Mobil Oil when an argument broke out: who discovered Prudhoe Bay? Everybody in the room except me claimed to have done so.)

Unfortunately, you don't hit a grand slam in every at-bat. The geological survey estimates that the Arctic refuge could produce at least half as much oil as Prudhoe Bay. It is also possible, however, that the refuge could produce no oil at all - it often happens in the oil industry. At the other extreme, the upper range of the geological survey's estimate soars to 16 billion barrels. Although the geologists at the survey are widely respected, the upper ranges of their petroleum estimates for the refuge have drawn criticism, sometimes expressed as giggles, from other petroleum geologists.

Despite its size, Prudhoe Bay was not big enough to reverse the decline of American oil production. The greatest year of United States production was 1970. Prudhoe Bay started producing oil in 1977, but never enough to raise American production above the level of 1970. The Arctic refuge will probably have an even smaller effect. Every little bit helps, but even the most successful drilling project at the Arctic refuge would be only a little bit.

But if the question of whether to drill in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge is the wrong one, what's the right one? In 1997 and 1998, a few petroleum geologists began examining world oil production using the methods that M. King Hubbert used in predicting in 1956 that United States oil production would peak during the early 1970's. These geologists indicated that world oil output would reach its apex in this decade - some 30 to 40 years after the peak in American oil production. Almost no one paid attention.

I used to work with Mr. Hubbert at Shell Oil, and my own independent research places the peak of world oil production late this year or early in 2006. Even a prompt and successful drilling operation in the Arctic refuge would not start pumping oil into the pipeline before 2008 or 2009.

A permanent drop in world oil production will have serious consequences. In addition to the economic blow, there will be the psychological effect of accepting that there are limits to an important energy resource. What can we do? More efficient diesel automobiles, and greater reliance on wind and nuclear power, are well-engineered solutions that are available right now. Conservation, although costly in most cases, will have the largest impact. The United States also has a 300-year supply of coal, and methods for using coal without adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere are being developed.

After world oil production starts to decline, a small group of geologists could gather in my living room and all claim to have discovered the peak. "We told you so," we could say. But that isn't the point. The controversy over the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge is a side issue. The problem we need to face is the impending world oil shortage.

Kenneth S. Deffeyes, a professor emeritus of geology at Princeton, is the author of "Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak."


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Editorial; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Alaska; US: District of Columbia
KEYWORDS: anwr; energy; gasoline; oil; peakoil; petroleum; usgs
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To: neverdem

In the World Almanac of the mid-70s, I remember a statement from the EPA noting that the world's supply of oil would be gone by 1981. The sky is always falling, and it will continue to fall for the rest of human history.


21 posted on 03/25/2005 7:04:13 PM PST by speedy
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To: Andy from Beaverton

Best reply so far!


22 posted on 03/25/2005 7:04:25 PM PST by US_MilitaryRules (My tagline was censored.)
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To: neverdem

This might be off-topic, but many geologists believe oil comes from inorganic sources deep within the earth; it is NOT decomposed swamp and vegetation matter, and so it may never run out.

The next issue then, is what will happen to all the carbon we put in the air and oceans when we burn that oil. Will it cycle back to earth, or stay there and become a greenhouse? This question is unanswered, though liberals will say it's settled fact that the greenhouse will happen.

Which is why I post on FR, to dispel such myths.


23 posted on 03/25/2005 7:05:21 PM PST by SteveMcKing
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To: neverdem; Thinkin' Gal; aculeus
What happens once the oil runs out?


24 posted on 03/25/2005 7:05:21 PM PST by Lijahsbubbe (Boredom is simply a lack of attention)
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To: LRS

But,....Soylent Green is made out of people.......


25 posted on 03/25/2005 7:06:45 PM PST by AxelPaulsen (One Iraqi Purple Finger Took More Courage Than Three Hanoi John Purple Hearts.)
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To: neverdem

It's not my problem.
Afterall, isn't that why we are constantly being told to vote? To have 435 brilliant elites solve our problems? Well, what will happen to them if we run out of oil should be the question.


26 posted on 03/25/2005 7:06:46 PM PST by mabelkitty (Blackwell for Governor in 2006!!!)
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To: conservlib
"Once the oil runs out then Rush going to advise his listners to buy bigger SUVs?"

Yes!

E.I.B. hydrogen and electric conservative rides...

27 posted on 03/25/2005 7:07:03 PM PST by hoot2
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To: Puckster

Damn!
My dreams of total anarchy have just died (and yes, that is a joke for all you WP reporters without a sense of humor).


28 posted on 03/25/2005 7:08:31 PM PST by mabelkitty (Blackwell for Governor in 2006!!!)
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To: neverdem

These clowns are pros at leaving all sorts of relevant variables.

US production is declining because the government has blocked drilling in many areas which contain very large reserves. The government has, since the late 60s, put up all sorts of impediments to domestic oil exploration/production.

There is more than enough recoverable oil (with today's prices and technology) to last for [at least] 100 years.

The private sector will not put up the massive investment needed to get the oil because our government has not shown the political will to let the market work. I remember VERY clearly the huge mess produced by Nixon's (and Carter's) price controls on US oil in the 70s. Oil was going for $12 pbl and US oil companies were forced to sell their's for $6. So, where do you think they sold their oil? Duh. And, companies did not invest in domestic exploration, etc. because price controls meant that it cost more to produce new oil than the government allowed them to charge.

So, when I read crap like this, I want to go postal on the moron saying it.


29 posted on 03/25/2005 7:09:06 PM PST by ChildOfThe60s (If you can remember the 60's.....you weren't really there.)
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To: mabelkitty

The previous poster about Hydrocarbons being created deep within the crust is accurate. The decayed matter theory ran into problems when they found oil at much deeper depths.


30 posted on 03/25/2005 7:11:27 PM PST by Puckster
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To: Andy from Beaverton
What Happens Once the Oil Runs Out? Islam dies!

The Saudis have openly admitted that their window of opportunity regarding wealth derived from oil will be a short one. They know an alternative source breakthrough will eventually come, and their remaining oil will be worthless. It reminds me of the story of the man who once had a near monopoly on ice houses in America. Then, in the 1920's, Sears started selling refrigerators. Suddenly, one of the wealthiest men in America was broke, and it happened in a period of just 10 years.

31 posted on 03/25/2005 7:11:29 PM PST by ExtremeUnction
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To: neverdem

32 posted on 03/25/2005 7:12:41 PM PST by The Spirit Of Allegiance (ATTN. MARXIST RED MSM: I RESENT your "RED STATE" switcheroo using our ELECTORAL MAP as PROPAGANDA!)
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To: neverdem

When "the oil runs out" string up the enviros and drill California and it's off shore reserves and we will have at least another 800 years of oil.


33 posted on 03/25/2005 7:13:05 PM PST by dalereed
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To: dakine
The syncrude from Canada is a pretty big play right now. Shell, Suncor (Canadian Sun Oil) and others are digging, boiling and pumping this stuff to their refineries and other other companies are buying it and running it successfully. It has no "bottoms," and thus is attractive to gasoline makers.
Oil shale may be a tougher nut to crack. The first attempts (Exxon) at knocking the oil out of shale involved radiating golf ball sized chunks of this material. The oil was liberated but in the process, golf balls became soft balls, about 30-40 percent larger. Try telling the Sierra Club that 1, you're going to drill, blast and radiate most of the countryside around Rifle, Colorado, and, 2, when you put it back, it'll be a third larger than it was in its natural state...
34 posted on 03/25/2005 7:14:41 PM PST by Eric in the Ozarks
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To: dalereed

Just wait, one of them is going to shreek..........."That's besides the point!".


35 posted on 03/25/2005 7:15:14 PM PST by Puckster
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To: neverdem

http://www.rense.com/general63/staline.htm

interesting about Abiotic oil ie oil is made by earth activity opposite to biological fuel...


36 posted on 03/25/2005 7:15:36 PM PST by Flavius ("... we should reconnoitre assiduosly... " Vegetius)
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To: neverdem

Go back to horses, of course...but as Michael Crichton points out, what'll we do with all the horse shit? Because we'll need millions and millions of horses!

These idiots on the Left never let up, never let facts get in the way.


37 posted on 03/25/2005 7:15:38 PM PST by Sam Cree (Democrats are herd animals)
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To: Eric in the Ozarks

The "Sand Oil" production costs have gone from about $25 to $17 per barrel. Also, a pipe line extension will go to Texas from Indiana which is fed from Canada.


38 posted on 03/25/2005 7:17:03 PM PST by Puckster
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To: AxelPaulsen

True, but look at all the problems we can solve while powering our S-U-V's (GASP): the over stressing of the Social Security system; wives that won't die; the spreading of Islam; illegal aliens; etc.

;-) (Just in case any libs are reading this - they think the worst of me already!...)


39 posted on 03/25/2005 7:17:08 PM PST by LRS
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To: neverdem

I have infonate faith in the ingenuity of mankind and the efficiency of the free market to satisfy this problem.


40 posted on 03/25/2005 7:17:09 PM PST by Natural Law
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