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Terrorism Summary 04/04/05

Observe the crossing trends in Afghanistan and Iraq. Attacks are decreasing as former terrorists are trying to get on board with the new governments. Spikes in attacks, such as been currently regarding the Abu Graib, are most likely by dead-enders thinking they could get some of their ‘buds’ out to help the ‘ol jihad and that the prison is a soft target. They found out other wise. Good analysis from www.Stratigypage.com.

Let me know if you want on or off the Ping list.

04/04/04 Current National Homeland Defense threat level is YELLOW

1. Attack threat windows - America
04/04/04 Primary Window: Currently on a 60 day watch due to the 02/20/05 release of a video on Al-Jazerra of AQ number two - Al Zawahiri. Past history has shown that there is a strong likelyhood that this video may be the signal for an attack somewhere within the next 60 days. This watch ends approximately 21 April 2005.

04/04/04 Secondary windows: None currently identified.

2. Attack Indicators
04/04/05 Al-Zawhari video message (see above). No other significant indicators

3. Current Terrorist Operations

AQ / OBL
Godzilla - I’m not sure how much tinfoil to apply to the following.
04/01/05 Al-Qaeda had progressed much further toward developing a particular biological weapon before the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks than the United States realized, the presidential commission investigating intelligence on weapons of mass destruction found.
The intelligence community was surprised by al-Qaeda's advances in a virulent strain in the disease, which the commission identified only as "Agent X" to prevent al-Qaeda from knowing what the U.S. government has learned.
The discovery of al-Qaeda's work came only after the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan removed the Taliban from power, according to the report.
http://www.tucsoncitizen.com/breaking/033105_agentx.php

Southern ASIA Region

Indonesia - State Dept. Travel Warning issued 03/24/05
Godzilla - This may be a continuance of the threat of an attack that was issued prior to the Dec 26, 2004 earthquake/tsunami that devistated Indonesia. Before I place another attack watch on it, I want further confirmation. Regardless, Indonesia is an active area for terrorist attacks.
04/03/05 Planning is well under way for a terrorist attack in Indonesia this year that could be as devastating as the 2002 Bali bombings, according to a document obtained by The Straits Times. The document is a letter from a Sumatran-based operative of the Jemaah Islamiah which tells of militants being trained for suicide bombings in the capital.
It was written to the network's top bomb maker Azahari Husin, a Malaysian who has been on the run after plotting three of Indonesia's worst terrorist strikes. A leading Indonesian security official and terrorism expert believes the note is authentic.
...snip.....
"Indonesia is facing an imminent Bali-style attack from these radicals," he said. "The cells might be splintered but they are still being held together by a common jihadist ideological platform to build an Islamic Caliphate in the region."
http://www.jihadwatch.org/archives/2005/04/005585print.html

Thailand
Monitoring - AQ attack watch #2 through 12/31/05
The documents show that in 2005, the militants plan to attack "soft targets" such as the tropical beach resorts of Pattaya and Phuket, which draw tourist from around the world. Recent attacks have hit other resort areas not affected by the tsunami.
http://www.trackingterrorism.com/Default.asp?dismode=article&artid=1305

Thailand’s south has been termed ‘restive’ due to its already predominantly moslem presence, so this sudden spat of terror bombings was rather unexpected.
04/04/05 Bomb blasts struck the main airport, a department store and a hotel in Thailand's south, killing at least two people and wounding several dozen, officials said, in attacks that raised concerns that Muslim insurgents are expanding their field of operations. Several foreigners were among those wounded in the explosions late Sunday in Songkhla province, just north of the three southernmost provinces where an Islamic insurgency has raged since early last year, officials said.
An explosion at Hat Yai airport, the main gateway to Thailand's far south, killed two people, Songkhla Governor Somporn Chaibongyang said. Another bomb exploded at the Carrefour department store in Hat Yai town, Somporn and other officials said. …snip…. A third blomb exploded in front of a hotel in the city of Songkhla, on the Gulf of Thailand coast not far from Hat Yai, but the governor said he had no reports of casualties from it.
http://www.internet-haganah.us/harchives/003902.html

East ASIA Region

Phillipines Attack watch through March 27 2005
04/04/05 Nothing significant to report.

Middle East / SW Asia

Yemen
04/01/05 Yemen has escalated its war against Islamic radicals. For the last four days, Yemeni troops have fought Islamic radicals in northern Yemen. There have been nearly a hundred casualties, and the army has brought in artillery to pound the brick compounds some of the rebels are holding out in. The Islamic radicals belong to the "Believing Youth" organization, an Islamist group associated with the late Hussein al-Houthi, a young radical who was killed earlier this month. Yemen had long tolerated Islamic radical groups, including al Qaeda. But this policy of tolerance has not been reciprocated. The Islamic radicals became more and more unruly and violent. Fearing that the Islamic radicals might become strong enough to mount a serious rebellion, the government has been jumping on the more aggressive groups. In addition, the government has been cooperating with Saudi Arabia, which it has not been done much in the past. The two countries now exchange information on Islamic radicals, as well as captured terrorists. Large extended families and clans along the border have kin on both side of the ill defined border, and have never paid much attention to the border anyway. This has led to smuggling, which has upset Saudi Arabia, which is attracting all manner of forbidden goods (booze, drugs and porn). The Saudis consider these forbidden pleasures as a form of terrorism.
http://www.strategypage.com//fyeo/qndguide/default.asp?target=POTHOT.HTm

04/01/05 On 30 March 2005, the U.S. Embassy in Sanaa issued the following Warden Message: "This Warden Message is being issued to reiterate our previous warning advising against travel to the Sadah region following recent military activity in the area. The U.S. Embassy also advises Americans to exercise caution in the Old City of Sanaa, particularly around the Baab al-Yemen area, following a security incident there the afternoon of March 29. The incident is still being investigated and the embassy will provide further information as soon as it becomes available. ..."
http://www.airsecurity.com/hotspots/hotspots.asp#105139>

Iran
04/04/05 Other than more stories about Iran’s continued nuclear program, nothing significant of notice.

Afghanistan
04/04/05 The Taliban has killed a over twenty people in the last two weeks, and claim to be back in action. Recent incidents and threats have also been directed at foreign aid workers, diplomats, and UN personnel, rather than Afghan officials, troops, and police or Coalition troops. Avoiding attacks on Afghan personnel may be an effort to appear more "nationalist." Focusing on foreigners -- albeit not troops, who can shoot back -- may be seen as possibly playing well among the Afghan people, who historically don't like outsiders very much, even friendly ones. The new Taliban tactics are those of desperate men. Many Taliban are accepting amnesty and turning in those who continue to fight. The Taliban violence represents the efforts of a few hundred armed men operating as part time fighters.
http://www.strategypage.com//fyeo/qndguide/default.asp?target=afghan.htm

04/02/05 US-led and Afghan forces have seized three mid-level Taliban commanders in a central region of the war-scarred country, officials said on Friday.
The men were arrested in an operation Thursday in the Charchino district of of Uruzgan province, Lieutenant General Muslim Ahmed, a commander of the Afghan National Army (ANA) in Kandahar told AFP.
"They were hiding in a house. We had intelligence about their presence. The raid was conducted jointly by US forces and ANA," he said. "The house was surrounded, and there was no exchange of fire during the operation."
The detainees were handed over to coalition forces, he added. The US-led military coalition has around 18,000 troops in Afghanistan who have been hunting down militants from the ultra-Islamic Taliban regime since it was toppled in late 2001.
Taliban attacks have surged with the advent of spring, with a series of bomb blasts and ambushes leaving a number of Afghan policemen and militants dead. Officials said Friday that a former Taliban commander had surrendered to the Afghan government, one of most high-profile figures to do so.
http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/7598_1302625,000500020005.htm

Iraq
04/03/05 Some sixty gunmen used two car bombs, assault rifles and RPGs to attack Abu Ghraib prison. Among the 3,000 prisoners there are many terrorists and Sunni Arab nationalists, and there have been previous attempts to get prisoners out by force. This attempt failed, leaving some 40 American troops, and a dozen prisoners, wounded. The fighting went on for about 40 minutes. It would not go on any longer because American quick reaction forces would have greatly reinforced the U.S. guards in the prison, making it impossible for the assault to succeed. Such a bold attack, and its failure, further hurts the terrorists and Sunni Arabs trying to restore their minority to power. There are about 10,000 Iraqis held in coalition prisons. Increasingly, those held are not just the usual suspects caught up in raids, but known terrorists or Sunni Arab gunmen turned in by neighbors and people who would earlier have shielded these guys.
http://www.strategypage.com//fyeo/qndguide/default.asp?target=IRAQ.HTM

04/01/05 Another major Shia religious festival, which lasted from 29-31 March, ended without incident. The government made a major effort to provide security for the large gatherings of Shia Arabs attending religious ceremonies. Sunni Arab terrorists, especially al Qaeda, consider these ceremonies a major insult to Sunni religious beliefs. The government deployed a security effort on the same level as the one rolled out for the January elections. Coalition troops deployed mostly as back up and quick reaction forces. Al Qaeda tried to use suicide car bombers, but none of them got through to large assemblies of Shia Arabs. In one incident, a car bomb went off and killed five people, which was the most any of the attacks were able to do.

Another reason the attacks were not successful was that, in the days before March 29th, police arrested hundreds of Sunni Arabs and foreigners suspected of being terrorists. Many were, and this is because an increasing number of Sunni Arab religious leaders have changed their minds about armed resistance to democracy, and coalition forces. This has made it easier for Sunni Arabs to pass on information to the police. The Sunni religious leaders have done the math and concluded that they were backing the losing side. Some have made deals with the government, to provide information, or pro-government sermons, in return for favorable treatment (money, access to jobs for their followers, reconstruction projects). But most have simply stopped preaching violence, or cut back on the intensity of their calls for violence against Kurds, Sunni Arabs and infidels (non-Moslems). Many Sunni Arab clerics have also noted that most of their followers are not in favor of terror attacks that kill Iraqis, no matter what their religion or ethnicity. The terrorists have largely given up attacking American troops. The level of such attacks is about half what it was a year ago. The reason is that the attackers are much more likely to fail, and get killed, when they attack American troops. It's much easier, and safer, to attack Iraqi civilians, or even Iraqi police and troops. But the Iraqi government forces are becoming more lethal as well, and Iraqi government forces usually have American troops backing them up.

The impact of all this has been striking. The overall level of terrorist violence has fallen by about half in the last month. Terrorist attacks that target Iraqis has been very unpopular in Iraq, and caused even many Sunni Arabs to turn against al Qaeda and Sunni Arab terrorist organizations. But at the street level, most Iraqis are more concerned with criminal gangs (who commit far more violence against Iraqis than terrorists) and corruption (which is encountered daily, while you might go weeks without even hearing about a terror attack in your neighborhood.)
http://www.strategypage.com//fyeo/qndguide/default.asp?target=IRAQ.HTm

Saudi Arabia
Monitoring - AQ attack watch has ended, however threat of an attack is still high.
Call for attacks on oil infrastructure in Iraq and Gulf region by Osama bin Laden

04/04/05 Seven suspected militants have been killed in a day-long gun battle with Saudi security forces north of the capital Riyadh, officials say.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4407351.stm

Lebanon
04/01/05 A bomb severely damaged a shopping and residential center in a mountain resort in the Christian heartland northeast of Beirut late Friday, lightly injuring at least four people, police and witnesses said. Several other people were treated at the scene and released. The explosion in Broummana, a posh mountain resort overlooking Beirut (search) and the Mediterranean coastline, is the fourth in about two weeks to hit a Christian area of Lebanon where support for the anti-Syrian opposition is high. It came as the country was engulfed in its worst political crisis in years. Residents reported hearing an explosion at about 9:45 p.m., targeting the Rizk Plaza with clothing stores on the ground floor and furnished apartments above.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,152208,00.html

Israel
04/04/05 A terror attack was prevented today at a checkpoint outside Shechem at the same time as security forces revealed the prevention of a massive multi-pronged attack between Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.
Two PA Arabs tried to pass through a roadblock southwest of Shechem, near Har Gerizim this afternoon. One looked suspicious and was spotted with a pipe bomb. The soldiers isolated the terrorist and searched him, finding two more bombs on his person. The second terrorist then tried to stab one of the soldiers with a knife. He was subdued and the explosives detonated in a controlled manner by IDF sappers.
It was released for publication today that an Arab terror cell was nabbed while planning a triple bomb attack at the Latrun junction on the main highway from Jerusalem to Tel Aviv. The terrorists planned to use a car-bomb and two suicide-bombers to carry out the attack, which was to target drivers, as well as the IDF Armored Corps Museum at Latrun.
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/news.php3?id=79592>

04/02/05 The Palestinian Authority may become more radicalized if Chairman Mahmoud Abbas continues to cooperate with terror groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad without disarming them, officials and analysts here said.
Abbas, the chairman of both the PA and the PLO, invited Hamas and Islamic Jihad to join the Palestine Liberation Organization this week -- an invitation accepted by both groups.
http://www.cnsnews.com//ViewForeignBureaus.asp?Page=\ForeignBureaus\archive\200504\FOR20050401f.html

Europe

Italy - Attack Watch thru April 10, 2005
04/04/05 Foreign leaders will be gathering from around the world to pay their last respects to Pope John Paul II on Friday, April 9, 2005. Due to the density of most of the world’s key leaders, including President Bush, PM Blair and others, the Vatican has become a very hot potential target. I’ve encountered no specific indicators of an attack, but I am concerned. Only key thing going for us is that there is little time to plan a mega attack, however, it is unknown the status and preparations for other attacks that could potentially be modified to strike.

Spain
04/01/05 At least 12 people were arrested Friday in connection with the train bombings in Madrid. The Interior Ministry said six Moroccans, three Syrians, one Egyptian, one Palestinian and one Algerian were arrested in raids in and around the city. Four of the Moroccans are brothers linked to another Moroccan, Youssef Belhadj, suspected of being the al-Qaida figure in whose name the attacks were claimed. Belhadj was extradited Friday from Belgium to Spain.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=535&ncid=535&e=5&u=/ap/20050401/ap_on_re_eu/spain_bombings_arrests>

Great Britain
Godzilla - A similar concern was felt here in the US in the run-up to the elections and inaguration.
04/04/05 There is a real risk that publicity-seeking al Qaida-linked terrorists could try to launch an attack in Britain in the run-up to the General Election, a leading terrorism expert has warned. With the Prime Minister expected to announce the date of the poll early this week, Professor Paul Wilkinson said extremists could try to target the campaign as a way of showing they were "still in business".
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/articles/PA_NEWA15803571112286698A00?source=

The Americas

United States
04/01/05 Calling Arizona the weakest portion of the Southwestern border and warning that terrorists may try to exploit its vulnerability, top Homeland Security officials on Wednesday pledged to add 534 Border Patrol agents and to more than double the number of aircraft within six months. …snip…
But some border security experts and academics said they doubt the increase, although widely recognized as significant, will be enough to stem illegal immigration through Arizona. The state shares 389 miles of border with Mexico and includes remote, treacherous expanses of desert and well-established smuggling corridors.
Arizona remains the most popular illegal-crossing corridor in the nation, last year accounting for 52 percent of the 1.1 million arrests along the entire length of the 1,950-mile border with Mexico.
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/0331border31.html

4. Attack method.
11/23/04 No real change in the preferred method of choice of AQ which are bombs - the bigger the better. There are special concerns regarding the use by terrorists of the following types of vehicles:

1. Uhaul type cargo trucks.
2. Gasoline / Propane supply / tanker trucks.
3. Emergency vehicles (ambulances, police cars, fire trucks)

The has been a great deal of discussion regarding the possibility of a bio-attack against the US and the west. Stacked on top of this are concerns that the avian flu might mutate and spread to humans - touching off a pandemic.

5. Personnel
04/04/05 Nothing significant to report.

6. Significant meetings canceled:
04/04/04 No new cancellations.

7. Security has been heightened in specific cities
04/04/04 NYC is at a locally declared ORANGE where it had been since. 9/11/01.

GENERAL: Ongoing work to upgrade security at sea ports and airports.

8. Military operations.
04/04/05 No announced operations out of normal.

9. Dept of Homeland Security. / State Department
04/01/05 PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENT
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE
Office of the Spokesman
This information is current as of today, Fri Apr 01 07:34:45 2005.
Russia
"This Public Announcement is being updated to remind American citizens traveling or living in Russia that there remains a heightened potential for terrorist actions, including attacks against civilians. This situation is likely to continue for some time. This supersedes the public announcement of October 27, 2004 and expires on September 30, 2005.

"Acts of terrorism including bombings and hostage taking have occurred in Russia over the last several years. Bombings have occurred at Russian government buildings, hotels, tourist sites, markets, entertainment venues, schools, residential complexes, and on public transportation including the subway and scheduled commercial air flights. Hostage taking incidents have included a raid on a school that resulted in horrific losses of life of children, teachers, and parents.

"There is no current indication that American institutions or citizens are targets but there is a general risk of American citizens being victims of indiscriminate terrorist attacks. American citizens in Russia should be aware of their personal surroundings and follow good security practices. Americans are urged to remain vigilant and exercise good judgment and discretion when using any form of public transportation. When traveling, Americans may wish to provide a friend, family member, or coworker a copy of their itinerary. Americans should avoid large crowds and public gatherings that lack enhanced security measures. Travelers should also exercise a high degree of caution and remain alert when patronizing restaurants, casinos, nightclubs, bars, theaters, etc., especially during peak hours of business.

"Due to continued civil and political unrest throughout much of the Caucasus region, the Department of State already warns U.S. citizens against travel to Chechnya and all areas that border it: North Ossetia, Ingushetia, Dagestan, Stavropol, Karachayevo-Cherkessiya and Kabardino-Balkariya. United States government personnel are generally prohibited from traveling to these areas, and American citizens residing in these areas should depart immediately as the safety of Americans and other foreigners cannot be effectively guaranteed. ...snip...."
http://travel.state.gov./travel/cis_pa_tw/pa/pa_1162.html

10. Suspicious Domestic Incidents Not Currently Linked to Specific Terrorism Attempts
04/04/05 Nothing significant.