Posted on 03/04/2005 6:26:18 AM PST by Crackingham
Prices of crude oil could rise to as high as $80 a barrel within the next two years although such a price band would not last long, OPEC's acting secretary general was quoted as saying Thursday. "I can affirm that the price of a barrel of crude oil rising to $80 in the near future is a weak possibility," Adnan Shehab al-Dine told Kuwait's Al-Qabas newspaper.
"But I cannot rule out (the possibility) of oil prices rising to $80 a barrel within the next two years," he said.
"If the oil price rises to this level for one reason or another - for example, interruption of supplies from a producing nation by 1 to 2 million barrels a day - it is not expected to continue for long," he said.
Shehab al-Dine said a price rise to between $50 to $60 a barrel for a period of two years or more will inevitably boost investments to increase supplies and lead to a drop in demand, eventually reducing prices.
World oil prices were mixed on Thursday after reaching four-month highs in New York and London the previous day amid a rise in U.S. crude stocks and jitters over increased global demand.
The crude oil closed in New York at just over $53.05 a barrel for the second day, the highest closing level since Oct. 26.
In London, the price of Brent North Sea crude oil for delivery in April rose $0.08 to $51.30 a barrel on Thursday, after earlier reaching a new four-month high of $51.50.
"The continued upward trend in crude prices is a reflection of market perception that has changed in the last few weeks," London-based Barclays Capital analyst Kevin Norrish said.
"The market is very sensitive to any kind of supply disruptions at the moment."
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was to meet in Isfahan, Iran on March 16, when it was expected to maintain its current production level of 27 million barrels a day.
"OPEC certainly won't cut production, the question is whether they will agree to increase production," Barclays Capital's Norrish said.
"Maybe you just hum
She's real fine,
my 409."
Ich finden mein auto ganz net.
Mein shones farvergnugen VW.
Close enough........ auf Deutsch
I have been a Republican since I was 18 And you?
Words of wisdom. Fellow FReepers, listen to this man. He knows what he's talking about.
Also - by all means drill ANWR like a Swiss cheese. But be aware, it won't supply us for long.
How could we benefit by raising the Social Security cap to $250,000 for the next ten years?
After seeing the petroleum industry for five years in the middle east I stopped thinking in such simplistic terms. You still do. Have at it. No one is listening to you.
Actually, today's high-tech turbodiesel engines are far more powerful than older engines, mostly because of better combustion chamber design and better, more accurate fuel delivery. The result is engines like the Volkwagen PD130 I mentioned earlier, which doesn't run out of steam at higher speeds like older-design engines. If you have a chance read up on the BMW 330d sedan with its amazing 3.0-liter I-6 turbodiesel that has almost as much high-rev power as its gasoline equivalent engine.
I could explain to you how this would significantly increase the amount of revenue flowing into the SS trust fund which is now in surplus due to the baby-boom generation, but will swing into deficit when they begin to retire. Obviously there is more, but this is very much not the topic of this thread and thread hijacking is a bannable offense (and you have been around longer than I, so clearly know that). So if you have questions, please ask them privately.
I don't know what school of economics you went to, but you are full of crap. Put a big tax on it and that will take care of it. Did you make that up all on your own?
Where are they going to find all this oil? The best you can do outside of the Middle East costs 8 to 10 dollars a barrel to produce (deep wells, north sea). Texas crude costs around 18 bucks a barrel. Venezuela around 12 bucks.
Compare that to Saudi Arabia, where it costs about a buck a barrel. There are huge reserves in Saudi that have yet to be tapped. Same thing with Iraq. Iraq could put out 4 times what they are now in fairly short order. Don't think for a minute that that isn't going to happen. You just try and compete with the Middle East. You will get your nuts handed to you in a plastic baggie.
This is a spike. I don't know how high it will go, but it is not going to last. Oil is a commodity and it's going to behave like one. The Opecers will begin cheating soon, if they aren't already. By December oil will be down to around 35 dollars a barrel, if not lower.
Hmm, so you start off with an insult and proceed to repeat the simplest part of my explanation. So you agree with the part you can undestand and offer no counter-argument for the part you don't other than a insult?
Seems like someone knows that he does not know what he is talking about, otherwise an insult would not be needed.
Economic arguments can be countered with good, contrary arguments, but you have failed to do anything other than reinforce my statement that money from unnecessary consumption of oil (through lack of efficiency) will flow directly into Saudi coffers.
Write back if you have something intelligent to say and try not to make yourself look silly.
"If you have a chance read up on the BMW 330d sedan with its amazing 3.0-liter I-6 turbodiesel that has almost as much high-rev power as its gasoline equivalent engine."
THAT would most definitely be worth investigating.
I don't think that most of us would disagree that efficiencies can be improved. I think that we do that voluntarily however, unless and until we have some sort of supply disruption.
I find that I drive a bit less aggressively and drive less, with no joy rides in my Yukon, but oil supplies availability will remain good for as long as I can see into the future.
Russia is bringing more to the market, and has plenty of excess capacity, as do Iraq and of coarse, the U.S. has been sitting on some as well.
The reason the price has spiked is not because of a shortage of oil, it is because of a shortage of production to match increased demand that came on too fast from China and India. Military needs also came in to play.
That covers the legitimate increases, but at least ten bucks worth belongs to trader manipulation of market fears.
Venezuela, where we get a large share of our oil is in limbo as far as future stability. Rigs were damaged by bad weather last year and some speculate more of the same coming..(global warming freakazoids)
Anyhoo! The prices will remain high for a few more quarters. We are tolerating it well, and I suspect the democrat socialists are once again eying gasoline as a revenue base once again in the U.S.
We have barely taxed it in comparison with other countries. We believe the growth is more important, and it would cause inflation, but we are not as dependent on petroleum distillate as we once were.
As for Natural gas, I suspect well over 90% is still in the ground. We will have plenty until we can get the anti-nuke groups out of our way and build some more nuke plants. We need to develop other ways like hydrogen, and we are working on it.
So, it really is not as big of a deal as some believe. But don't look for the controversy to go away. It has been this way since the 60's.
I'm of the opinion that Iraq ought to pay us back for every dime spent to free them in the form of FREE oil...
I am sure we will get some favorable contracts from them as well. They can't give it away, but they can give us some sweet longterm agreements and the like.
If they do, I'd like to buy from a gas station that advertises, "We only sell American-liberated oil and gas products from Iraq!"
I inquired as to party affiliation in order to understand your desired fuel tax increase.
A well kept older auto can actually make money in the long run. My Benz 300 turbo has an interior that looks like new, The exterior is classic also. I just had trannie service and motor mounts replaced, so it will be a while before I can show very much black ink, but it it is still cheaper than new car payments. Ill bet that Volvo motor in your classic ride is somewhat choice.
Excellent post.
Please show me where I wrote that I support anything of the sort.
Actually, one turbodiesel engine that we may see in the USA come September 2006 (when low-sulfur motor fuels are mandated by the EPA nationally) is Honda's well-regarded i-CTDi 2.2-liter I-4 engine, which is rated at 140 bhp (SAE) but has a torque peak more akin to the 3.5-liter V-6 found on the Honda Accord! Put that engine into the Accord and 40 mpg from a four-door Accord sedan may be in reach. I wouldn't be surprised that Honda is working on a V-6 turbodiesel engine based on the technology of the i-CTDi engine, which could be installed on the Honda Ridgeline light truck, the Honda Pilot and Acura MDX SUV's, and the Honda Odyssey minivan.
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