Posted on 02/21/2005 3:09:17 PM PST by bitt
Washington — The Earth may be on the brink of a worldwide epidemic from a bird flu virus that may mutate to become as deadly and infectious as viruses that killed millions during three influenza pandemics of the 20th century, a federal health official said Monday.
Dr. Julie Gerberding, head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said scientists expect that a flu virus that has swept through chickens and other poultry in Asia will genetically change into a flu that can be transmitted from person to person.
The genes of the avian flu change rapidly, she said, and experts believe it is highly likely that the virus will evolve into a pathogen deadly for humans.
She made the remarks in a plenary lecture at the national meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
In Asia, there have already been a number of deaths among people who caught the flu from chickens or ducks. The mortality rate is very high, about 72 per cent of identified patients, said Dr. Gerberding. There also have been documented cases of this strain of flu being transferred from person-to-person, but the outbreak was not sustained, she said.
“We are expecting more human cases over the next few weeks because this is high season for avian influenza in that part of the world,” said Dr. Gerberding. Although cases of human-to-human transmission have been rare, “our assessment is that this is a very high threat.”
This assessment, she said, is based on the known history of the flu virus.
The avian flu now spreading in Asia is part of what is called the H1 family of flu viruses. It is a pathogen that is notorious in human history.
“Each time we see a new H1 antigen emerge, we experience a pandemic of influenza,” said Dr. Gerberding. In 1918, H1 appeared and millions died worldwide. In 1957, the Asian flu was an H2, and the Hong Kong flu in 1968 was a H3.
There had been small appearances of the H1-type of avian viruses in other years, but nothing like the H5 now rampaging through the birds of Asia.
“We are seeing a highly pathogenic strain of influenza virus emerge to an extraordinary proportion across the entire western component of Asia,” she said. “The reason this is so ominous is because of the evolution of flu.... You may see the emergence of a new strain to which the human population has no immunity.”
Study already has shown that the virus can infect cats who can then infect other cats, which Dr. Gerberding said was “another harbinger” of the possibility of a human pandemic.
“The science here is all alerting us that we have a great deal to be concerned about,” she said.
The CDC chief said her agency is getting ready for a possible pandemic next year.
A special flu team, organized last year, continues to monitor the spread of the avian flu and to analyze the strains as they appear.
The government has ordered two million doses of vaccine that would protect against the known strains of avian flu. Dr. Gerberding said this would give manufacturers a head start on making the shots that would be needed to combat a full-blown epidemic of an H1-type of flu in this country.
CDC is also plugged into an international communication and monitoring system that, it is hoped, will give an early warning of the emergence of a deadly new flu.
But at the same time, the agency is helping to produce the 180 million or so doses of regular flu that are needed annually. Dr. Gerberding said the timeline for producing the regular vaccine yearly is very tight, with little room for problems. To produce a new vaccine in response to the sudden emergence of an H1-flu bug would require an extraordinary new effort, she said.
“We don't now have the capacity to do both,” said Dr. Gerberding.
Thanks for your calm response.
AHHHH!!!!!! WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
He talked about how bad that flu was up until shortly before his death at 96. Must have been really awful.
Well, on the plus side,
you may be a winner in
that Ed McMahon thing . . .
So be it - I allow that our abiltiy to prevent same will be much before their aility to do same - will we take casualties? Yes...but we must deplete their population before they try to do that to us...it is only after we can presnet to them a "peaceful" solution that they will start to follow some laws of civility...we must be ruthless in logical anticipation of their acts...those people do not respect "law and order" until they get hit up side the head with a stick...they only respect power - yes, it is sad that peace does not appeal to them until they know they will be destroyed by onemeans or another...
Bummer!
While Rome burned.....
Nitro fiddled...
just kidding.
LVM
If I remember correctly I think we lost 18 million. In 1918 that was a lot of people. I could be wrong.
MarkT i am with you. i believe this could be a formidable weapon in our war on terror. perhaps, this is what we(they) are experimenting and this is the first foray. if so, i am hoping we are a number of steps ahead of them and this is not their experiment. nevertheless this would certainly be an apparent innocuous way for us to inconspicuously diminish the legion of terrorists.
Between global warming warnings and all these flu outbreaks that are to come but never do, I don’t know where to hide anymore.
From what I hear we now have medicine in the US that will dissolve them. I had mine out in 1984. I sure wish they would have had it then. You might want to check with your doctor about that first. :)
Brooklyn says you are certainly welcome.
My name is no gamble.
"October 1918 turns out to be the deadliest month in the nation's history as 195,000 Americans fall victim to influenza." This from PBS site.
Note this was for one month...the month of October. Even with advances in medicine one must worry. With modern travel what it is transmission will be very very fast.
Oh, no. Its not the end of the world again...I don't know if I can take another one.
IMO, anytime someones starts issuing warning about a worldwide pandemic, it must be appropriations time.
I'm not a doctor or even have any real knowledge about virology, but I do know that we live in 2005 and pandemics predates modern medicine.
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