I don't see any suprise in the Falcon's season. They were in the elite of the NFC two years ago. The only reason they sucked last year was that Reeves assumed the season was over when Vick got hurt. So this year they picked up where they left off two years ago, they are clearly one of the top teams in a weak conference. I don't think they'd be an elite team in the AFC, I think they'd be mid-range (probably a 10-6 team), but they don't have to worry about that, they're in the NFC and the only team there more complete is the Eagles, and with how they played down the stretch I'm not convinced the Eagles are all that complete either (especially given how afraid they are of injuries with 10 million in cap room, they have no excuse for that shallow a depth chart when they have money to burn).
They're a good team. They need some improvement on defense, and they need Vick to develop more quarterbacking skills (right now Vick is the best RB in the game, who happens to throw a lot of passes, he needs to become a true scrambling quarterback). But other than that they're solid and should be in the hunt in the NFC for a while.
You obviously know more about the Pro game than me (I'm a college fan...GO DAWGS!)
You make a solid argument(and I love your conclusion...LOL).