Didn't Manning throw four or five pass TDs in one game during this season? What's makes you think he can't do it tomorrow?
He might and he might not.
Because Belichick constructs vile mean spirited defenses, and believes in a ball control offense that will leave Manning sitting on the bench for a lot of the game. He might still get 3 TDs, but most importantly he probably won't get enough TDs to win. Belichick is perfectly happy giving up 70 points, so long as his team gets 71, that's the way he coaches (just win) and that's what his team has been doing for him since he took over.