Posted on 01/13/2005 2:23:00 PM PST by tellw
LINCOLN, Neb. (AP) -- Four years from now, if some Harvard students' predictions turn true, Sen. Chuck Hagel will be preparing for his presidential inauguration.
That's according to a group of students tasked with researching this past presidential election and looking forward into the next election cycle.
Student authors Miriam Barhoush, Kevin Bourke, Amanda Coe and Paul Scott, predict Hagel will win the White House over Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh, of Indiana. Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney will be the Republican's running mate and Mark Warner, currently governor of Virginia, will be the Democratic counterpart.
The students wrote the paper for the course, "Driving Forces in American Politics," taught by David Gergen and Elaine Karmack at the John F. Kennedy School of Government. Karmack served in the Clinton White House and Gergen has worked for Nixon, Ford, Reagan and Clinton.
Hagel spokesman Mike Buttry called the exercise "interesting."
"We'll probably see a lot of projects like this over the next four years," Buttry said Monday.
Hagel has not said whether he'll run for president in 2008.
The students predicted Hagel will have to overcome his largest obstacle -- name recognition -- to win the nomination over Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist and Colorado Gov. Bill Owens.
These students say Hagel will win the primaries because he represents "the quintessential New Hampshire candidate (with) unquestioned credentials on defense and fiscal management."
Not all Republicans may back Hagel as nominee, the students cautioned.
"His reputation as a maverick could hurt him with rank-and-file Republicans who strongly support the current administration," the study read.
But Hagel could attract some middle-of-the-road voters, the students wrote.
"Hagel's straight talk will win over moderate voters and those who feel that our foreign policy warrants better management," they wrote.
Popular with moderate voters themselves, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. and current Secretary of State Colin Powell will endorse Hagel in the New Hampshire primary and he'll become "the anti-establishment candidate," the students wrote.
He'll even collect his nomination near his home state, they predict. The students suggest that the 2008 Republican convention will be held in Kansas City, Mo.
In the mid-1990s, the theory at Harvard was that the next Republican President would be... Richard Lugar.
I understand where you are coming from but he did lead the effort against the Kyoto treaty which is pretty darned Republican......and as far as immigration goes....living in Calif and seeing it...hell, I give George Bush and "F" as well along with most Repubs who are cowards along with most Dems when it comes to this issue......that doesn't mean W shouldn't be Pres. One thing I do that many (not you) do here is that I listen and take the person on a whole. Not on a single issue cause most have some disagreements but I appreciate you educating me on the matter
Right, that's gonna lock-in the red states.
Bhahahhahahahahahahaahaha.. stop it your killin me
How did you fly under the radar.. back to the trenches at DU my newbie friend.. You ole wackjob.. it's getting too damned easy to spot you guys.. :)
These Harvard dudes (and dudettes) seem to have a tenuous contact with reality.
What's more likely is that a few governors (Owens, Pawlenty, Romney, Sanford, and maybe even Kempthorne), a couple Senators (Frist and Allen), and a couple wild-cards (Tancredo and Gingrich) will make up the field. That makes up a field of about 7 - 9 candidates, which is pretty standard.
I like Ownes myself, but I wouldn't mind Pawlenty or Sanford either.
Kempthorne is a dark horse candidate.
Allen is a great senator, but I don't feel right nominating a senator (A Senator hasn't been elected president since 1960). Allen does have VP material written all over him, however.
If we could take Newt's ideas and put them into somebody else's head, we would have the perfect candidate, but that ain't gonna happen.
Tancredo has no chance of winning, but will help refine the GOP platform on immigration, which is by far their greatest weakness. They'll need it before going toe to toe with Hillary or Bayh, and Hillary has recently been running to the Right on immigration issues.
Jeb Bush is also a player, but probably not in 2008 (as he has stated). What's more likely is that Jeb jumps in the 2006 Senate race in order to keep his political career alive. Jeb will be waiting in the wings for 2012 or 2016 if something goes awry in 2008. JEB BUSH IS THE ULTIMATE INSURANCE POLICY.
thanks for your ignorance.......you can read all my posts here and see i'm hardly a Dem and have been a loyal Republican since 1975 when I turned 18.......sorry you don't feel the need to listen to both sides.....if you did you wouldn't have re-elected Bush cause of his immigration policies........I look at the whole person and not just one issue
This is what passes for knowledge at Hahvud?
These poor misguided kids need to come down of their ivory towers, and perhaps travel outside of blue New England once in a while...
They need a reality transplant.
The John Kerry factor will be repeated, and the dems will still lose again, being stupid.
By the Kerry factor, I mean, that the dem base preferred Howard "Screaming" Dean, but there was a collective decision made that Kerry was more "electable". Same factor will derail Hillary. Dems want her, but they are terrified of losing the center, and will take a pass.
Going with a governor can never be wrong.
All good points, but Hillary already knows this. That is why she is running to the right on almost all issues. She's Right of a large chunk of the GOP on immigration issues, and she's moving to the Right on other issues as well. The other day, Newt Gingrich speculated that Hillary will probably move to the right on spending issues as well, possibly even supporting SS reform.
Hillary is probably the only dem who can garner the support of the left-wing kooks without actually catering to them. Her husband did the same thing in 1992.
Over my dead conservative, political activist body. I'm in Iowa and I will cut him off at the I-80 bridge. I will be shocked if he is among the top 3 vote getters in Iowa.
Nah, he's not anti-Bush. He's pro-attention for Hagel. He just tells the press what they want to hear. He's a nothing.
Save it partner.. you are embarrassing yourself.. Oops I forgot, no way to embarrass a liberal is there.. take a hike, it's just too silly.. :)
If Hillary wants the nomination...they will start to lock it up very soon...she does NOT want a primary circus like the Dems had in 2004. She wants to be annointed..have it handed to her. What's causing the delay is they're still deciding whether or not she ruins for re-election in 2006
who's hagel?
Frist has pledged to step down in 2006, which will make McConnell the Majority leader. However, there is rampant speculation that McConnell wil lbe appointed to the Supreme Court once Renquist retires (Scalia becomes Chief, McConnell replaces Scalia). Kyl may challenge Santorum for the Majority position, however. But the McConnell appointment makes even more sense now that A republican is in the Governor's gouse in KY. Gov. Fletcher would probably appoint Rep. Ronnie Lewis, a staunch conservative, to the Senate.
But if you look at it, a lot of what happens in 2008 will depend on the Senate races in 2006.
Being originally a Nebraska girl, I liked Hagel when he joined the senate. I consider myself a moderate but dedicated republican.
Now I believe he's done great damage to our war efforts by his very biting public criticism of our foreign policy.
I'd never vote for him.
Viet vet resume padding?
Quick, someone call Jug Burkett, and maybe we can nip this in the bud before we have another hero on our hands.
Tom Harkin should NEVER be allowed to slide on his lie that he was a combat pilot in Vietnam. He had the gaul to call Bush people chicken hawks, even as he still lies about his own service.
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