Posted on 01/13/2005 2:23:00 PM PST by tellw
LINCOLN, Neb. (AP) -- Four years from now, if some Harvard students' predictions turn true, Sen. Chuck Hagel will be preparing for his presidential inauguration.
That's according to a group of students tasked with researching this past presidential election and looking forward into the next election cycle.
Student authors Miriam Barhoush, Kevin Bourke, Amanda Coe and Paul Scott, predict Hagel will win the White House over Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh, of Indiana. Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney will be the Republican's running mate and Mark Warner, currently governor of Virginia, will be the Democratic counterpart.
The students wrote the paper for the course, "Driving Forces in American Politics," taught by David Gergen and Elaine Karmack at the John F. Kennedy School of Government. Karmack served in the Clinton White House and Gergen has worked for Nixon, Ford, Reagan and Clinton.
Hagel spokesman Mike Buttry called the exercise "interesting."
"We'll probably see a lot of projects like this over the next four years," Buttry said Monday.
Hagel has not said whether he'll run for president in 2008.
The students predicted Hagel will have to overcome his largest obstacle -- name recognition -- to win the nomination over Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist and Colorado Gov. Bill Owens.
These students say Hagel will win the primaries because he represents "the quintessential New Hampshire candidate (with) unquestioned credentials on defense and fiscal management."
Not all Republicans may back Hagel as nominee, the students cautioned.
"His reputation as a maverick could hurt him with rank-and-file Republicans who strongly support the current administration," the study read.
But Hagel could attract some middle-of-the-road voters, the students wrote.
"Hagel's straight talk will win over moderate voters and those who feel that our foreign policy warrants better management," they wrote.
Popular with moderate voters themselves, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. and current Secretary of State Colin Powell will endorse Hagel in the New Hampshire primary and he'll become "the anti-establishment candidate," the students wrote.
He'll even collect his nomination near his home state, they predict. The students suggest that the 2008 Republican convention will be held in Kansas City, Mo.
A Hagel run reminds me of Specter’s laughable presidential campaign in 2000. All of his speeches to GOP groups included complaints of how terrible the GOP was. “You’re an idiot! Vote for me!” isn’t the most effective pitch to the base.
I was of the mind that Hagel is pretty darned "Republican" except for the one issue of him being skeptical about the war. Of course that is all you see of him.. At least he speaks his mind without being insulting which I admire in any politician.....I think he is a no nonsense guy and really seem tough as nails.....despite his criticism of the way the war is going......
Hagel's campaign will last less time than Lieberman's..
Hagel is always referred to as a Vietnam veteran in the MSM. I've heard whispers from a few folks that there's a lot of resume padding there, even worse than Harkin did. We shall see..
Hagel is hardly Spector who I hate also......except for the war thing in which is questions the post war, he has not come out against the President on any other issue to my knowledge has he?????
They are dreaming. Harvard has no prestige anymore, except for those who've been there.
Marvelous, simply maaaahvelous..an absolutely delicious witticism..one of your best "bon mots"..
Because he's completely reliable as a Bush basher, even more so than McCain. McCain actually agrees with the President every once in a while. Not Hagel. However, he doesn't have 1/100 the of the personality McCain does, and there's no way in Hell he gets the GOP nomination.
Gergen -- the most overrated trollop in the business.
Bump to that.
Anti-establishment Republicans... Um...
That's all well and good, but most voters don't go for the candidate who wants to go against this ambiguous "establishment". Most people want to hear that the thigs they cherish will be preserved and the things they don't like will be made better. An anti-establishment candidate in either party will not get elected.
HOW much do these kids' parents pay for tuition?
APf
That line there tells you all you need to know about what this analysis is worth. If I'm not mistaken, you have to go all the way back to at least Reagan to find a winner of the GOP NH primary who went on to capture the nomination.
If you can say that with a straight face then you don't know much about Bayh. I'd also be amazed if Bayh gets nominated; if he does he'll have to swirch to a pro-abortion stance.
You're right, that should have been picked up. With RINOs like Gergen, who needs Rats?
Never would I vote for that weasel.
The notion of handicapping candidates without first knowing the most important variables is absurd.
A presidential campaign is not a solo act. It's a two hundred million dollar team project requiring the recruitment and management of the best talent in the nation.
There will be lots of "vanity" candidates in 2008. Vanity candidates have no intention of winning, they will be running for alternate reasons. Not only is there millions of dollars in free advertising, there's also millions of dollars of dollars.
Now that Colin Powell is leaving public office, we're seeing a few glints of his real opinion. He made reference to "Rolodex Rangers" in an interview last week.
He has it right. There are a number of GOPers who loathe Bush, and can be counted on to show up at a moment's notice with an anti-admin. message. They're on the Rolodex for every Lib. talk show.
Hagel is prominent among them.
We're going to have 4 years of MSM campaigns for the GOP nomination, and all of the candidates will be "Rolodex Rangers". McCain and Hagel are the two most reliable so far.
Hagel prepares new initiative on climate change
"U.S. Sen. Chuck Hagel, who led Senate opposition to the Kyoto global warming accord seven years ago, said Wednesday he's fashioning an alternative initiative to address climate change."
Yale students predict that Harvard students will be wrong again.
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