Disaster Opens Prospect of Peace in Sri Lanka

Financial Times ^ | 1/5/05 | Ray Marcelo in Colombo

[goodnesswins]

Disaster opens prospect of peace in Sri Lanka

When Sri Lanka’s president Chandrika Kumaratunga shook hands with two Tamil Tiger guerrillas last week, many saw her gesture as a symbol of peacemaking following the tsunami that has killed more than 30,000 across the island.

Ms Kumaratunga, who lost an eye in 1999 in a Tiger assassination attempt during the group’s insurgency for a Tamil homeland, also declared that returning to civil war with the Tigers was now only a “remote” possibility.

Underlying Ms Kumaratunga’s bold declaration were the heavy losses suffered by the Tigers due to the tsunami in territory they control, and that both sides were working together on the urgent task of disaster relief.

But in spite of unprecedented co-operation in the humanitarian effort now underway, a peaceful solution to the 20-year civil war remains uncertain.

“We should be careful not to draw conclusions too far. The disaster has done a lot of things to the country but has done nothing at all in [resolving] the conflict,” says Trond Furuhovde, leader of the Nordic mission that monitors the current ceasefire between the government and the Tigers.

“We have to realise that the Tigers have been fighting for 20 years for self-determination.”

Before the tsunami, both sides had been locked in a political and military stalemate. This impasse reflected pressure from the Tigers, who were rumbling about returning to war, and an emerging power play by Mrs Kumaratunga as she sought to extend her constitutional powers.

Analysts say the manoeuvring by both sides had been aimed at strengthening their positions ahead of any peace talks, which would possibly revolve around a Tiger proposal for an “interim self-governing authority”, a de facto government in the north and east of the island.

But the tsunami has exposed critical weaknesses in the Tigers’ make-up. First, the group has been unable to take a firm grip over the distribution of aid in territory they rule in the island’s north and east.

While emergency supplies are reaching these devastated areas, the huge donor funds aimed at long-term reconstruction in Sri Lanka may not. This is because the US, the UK and regional power India have banned the Tigers, labelling them terrorists. The United Nations, and the foreign governments that control it, are likely to resist providing funds to the Tigers as long as this ban remains in force.

The second main weakness has been the loss of bargaining power. The Tigers believed they had won a seat at the negotiating table through military force, which has included brutally effective use of suicide bombing. But the tsunami effectively destroyed the “Sea Tigers”, a guerrilla naval unit that formed a critical link in the Tigers’ arms supply chain.

“It would seem to me that the Tigers have been militarily weakened and the balance of forces has turned to the government,” says Jehan Perera, head of the National Peace Council, a conflict resolution group in Colombo.

This balance of forces is a crucial factor in Sri Lanka’s ceasefire. A military imbalance raises the chance that one side may be tempted to test the other’s strength. On the other hand, Ms Kumaratunga’s comments on the remote possibility of war, the public focus on reconstruction, and the international attention on the island, should be enough to avert renewed fresh conflict for some time. The prospects for achieving long-term peace are now open.

But compromises may have to be made. The Tiger’s military weakness means they may “have to settle further away from their heart’s desire for of the interim self-governing authority,” says Paikiasothy Saravanamuttu, a leading political analyst.

The government, Mr Perera says, has two options. The first is to simply wait and watch the Tigers weaken further. The separatists were already dealing with an unprecedented split in their ranks before the tsunami hit. But this strategy risks fanning the Tigers’ frustrations over the lack of progress on their peace proposal. As Mr Perera observes, the Tigers may be wounded, but they still retain the ability to launch suicide bomb attacks in Colombo.

The second option is for the government to show “a leap of faith” and bring the rebels into its confidence. The Tigers - in a weakened state - may not pose such a threat to national security. Now is the time, Mr Perera says, for Mrs Kumaratunga to “bring them into the system”.

Her record suggests she will wait. But peacemakers in Sri Lanka hope the handshake she offered to the two Tamil Tigers last week will also be extended to the group’s leaders.

[goodnesswins]

Something GOOD may come of the Tsunami?

[critilo]

heavy losses suffered by the Tigers due to the tsunami in territory they control (no territory==no terror)

[sukhoi-30mki]

First of all,the Tigers may lose numbers,but not inspiration.As long as Vellupillai Prabhakaran breathes oxygen,they will remain a threat & he lives miles away from the coastline.If some newsreports are to be believed,Kumaratunga has ordered aid to be blocked from going to Tamil held areas.If innocent Tamils starve,it will reinvigorate the tigers & they will become more paranoid.If she is indeed blocking aid,then the US or India(more likely) will have to get tough with her.