Posted on 01/05/2005 1:28:03 AM PST by farmfriend
Global Warming vs. Tsunamis? Tsunamis Win
By Roy Spencer
After the horrific loss of life in the Indian Ocean region from the record earthquake and resulting tsunami last week, I was struck by the immensity of what had happened. While scientists continue to argue over whether we can even measure mankind's influence on weather or climate in the face of naturally occurring hurricanes, tornadoes, heat waves, cold waves, blizzards, and floods, Mother Nature shows us that she still rules the day.
There is no question that the Earth knows that humans live here -- six billion people are going to have some effect on the environment, no matter how much we recycle or cut back on energy use. But while some chronic worriers continued to wring their hands over a possible rise of sea level of an inch or so every ten years due to global warming, an earthquake at the bottom of the ocean produced a wave of destruction as much as 30 feet high in a matter of minutes.
Of additional concern was the fact that this event was bigger than anything in recorded history for the region. This reminds us that nature isn't constrained by what humans happen to remember over the last few hundred years. A once-in-a-thousand-years event -- or even once in ten thousand years -- is not out of the question. Some places, at some time, are going to experience natural disasters bigger than anything in recorded history for that region. (Sorry, that just the way statistics works.)
So after the extent of the tsunami disaster became known, my biggest reaction was, now maybe global warming activists will be silenced for a time by the absurd disparity between what had just happened, and what they are predicting to happen from global warming. After all, if someone living within 30 feet of sea level has to contend with the possibility of a giant wave suddenly destroying his house and drowning his family, how much will he worry about an inch of sea level rise every ten years due to global warming?
But to my astonishment, some environmentalists reacted to the tsunami by claiming that this is the kind of disaster we will have to face with global warming, even hinting that the tsunami was caused by humans! (I will assume that the readership here does not need to be persuaded that mankind has no influence over magnitude 9.0 earthquakes at the bottom of the ocean.)
So I've been trying to understand how some environmentalists could reach such a conclusion, and I think I might have figured it out. You see, those who are most worried about our effect on nature also tend to believe that nature is very fragile. Thus, the tectonic strain at the bottom of the ocean that caused the great quake might have remained unreleased if only mankind had not meddled and pushed the Earth "over the edge". I'm being serious here, by the way. This point of view actually has a measure of support from science. It's the "butterfly effect" of chaos theory: the flap of a butterfly's wing in Japan could mean the difference between a massive blizzard in the U.S. occurring or not. But it's infinitely more likely that an extra trillion kilowatt-hours of sunlight over the eastern U.S. from a temporary decrease in cloudiness would be the real culprit.
So given that natural disasters are going to occur, even without any help from humans, what can we do to cope with them? Well, countries that have adopted free-market principles have built the knowledge base, wealth, infrastructure, and warning systems to greatly reduce damage due to earthquakes, hurricanes, etc. People who choose to live (or are in effect forced to live through government policies) close to sea level will continue to be at risk, unless they follow the lead of the more developed countries and try to reduce that risk. Many nations are now helping by putting a temporary cash-bandage on the hurt, but in the long run governments of countries at risk of natural disasters need to invest resources to deal with the whims of Mother Nature -- while she is taking a breather before her next big surprise.
The problem with the logic of applying the "chaos theory" in order to criticize every possible environmental act is this: By the logic of Chaos theory, it's just as likely that the butterfly flapping it's wings in Japan could -prevent- the blizzard in the U.S. That's the point - it's chaotic - there's no way to know which way it'll go. And those extra billion kilowatts making it through the cloud cover are potentially just as likely to -prevent- a natural disaster as they are to cause one. The vanity is in claiming to know which way it'll go.
Qwinn
We just had 2 blizzards in 2 days, dumping 60 inches of snow on the ground which is saturated, and now frozen solid after a very wet and cold spring, summer and fall.
One of the coldest years on record. Global warming my @ss.
There are still 4 months of winter left, and much more snow left to fall, blizzards to dig out from. This means of course we will have extensive flooding this coming spring, which will be blamed on global warming. Strange thing is, we had a few dry, hot years before this, which they blamed on global warming. I wish they would make up their minds what global warming is going to do, make it warmer, or make it colder?
I saw a funny t shirt the other day.
"Stop tectonic plate shifting"
Bah! Stop bragging. I live in NJ and we literally haven't had more than an inch of snow all winter *grumble* I'll happily take 30 inches of that snow you got so we can get a snow day too!
Qwinn
BTT!!!!!!
A comment well worth highlighting. Look at the progress Thailand already has made in cleaning up. It has the most infrastructure and educated workforce in the area. Lists of the missing and known dead are being computerized, roads cleared and repairs are quickly being made to some hotels less badly damaged. Whether tourists will return soon is another issue, but that country more than most is best able to cope with the non-human toll of the disaster.
A comment well worth highlighting. Look at the progress Thailand already has made in cleaning up. It has the most infrastructure and educated workforce in the area. Lists of the missing and known dead are being computerized, roads cleared and repairs are quickly being made to some hotels less badly damaged. Whether tourists will return soon is another issue, but that country more than most is best able to cope with the non-human toll of the disaster.
Sorry about the double post.
I'm getting so old I remember back when Roy Spencer was still a scientist.
You are forgetting one thing though. The negative effect of the butterfly is directly proportional to the political intent of the person studying the effect.
Hey, you did say it was worth highlighting!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.