[LibWhacker]

It is now pegged at having a 1-in -45 chance of striking the planet on April 13, 2029.

Yep, that's the risk on that one day only. Cumulatively, over the 70 years subsequent to 2029, the risk is about 30% (as of right now). Wish they wouldn't announce these things until they get it nailed down. What's the point?

[HighWheeler]

These odds estimates are based on a Monte Carlo probabilities, where several variables are each part of the matrix.

If they ran 45,000 different scenarios for gravity, sun spot effect, solar wind effect, celestial bodies gravitational effects, the asteroid density, etc. they are saying that 1000 of them are coming up with Earth impacts in 2029.

[ExSoldier]

I'll be in my early 70's by then....if I make it that long!

[LibWhacker]

. . . the risk is about 30% (as of right now) . . .

Arghhh! . . . Never mind, sez Emily Latella. The table gave the probability as 2.2e^-02, and by this they meant 2.2 x 10^-2. But I took "e" to mean the number "e," as in natural logarithms. :-(