Posted on 12/20/2004 9:47:17 AM PST by LjubivojeRadosavljevic
Starting Thursday night a marathon took place and lasted until noon on Friday the next day. What had happened? Why did Prime Minister Erdogan not sign the Cyprus Declaration? I tried to find out what had actually happened behind the scenes by talking to the Turkish, British and French diplomats, who had personally participated in the talks.
Here is a “behind the scenes” of this great bargaining.
It all started on the evening of Dec. 16.
The Turkish Delegation was waiting for the completion of a dinner party attended by the presidents and prime ministers of 25 European Union countries. The delegation was rather optimistic in the aftermath of French President Jaque Chirac’s TV address the previous day. There were four items on the table.
One of them was open-ended talks that France regards as relevant regarding how the relationship with Turkey would develop in the case of a dispute. Turkey asked for the removal of “open ended.”
The other item was “continuous restraints” in which the prime minister insisted the word “continuous” be removed.”
The third one was the paragraph concerning Cyprus. As the talks approached the more the prime minister raised his voice, demanding the removal of the entire paragraph. The Cyprus paragraph specified Turkey expand its customs union to include Cyprus and sign it before the accession talks started. The delegation knew that this paragraph could not be removed, however, it could be modified to include Cyprus after the completion of accession talks.
This probably was their biggest mistake.
But they realized it too late.
A storm broke Thursday evening at about 11:00 p.m.
Netherlands Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende, along with the chief of the commission, held a press conference after dinner in a lounge packed with people.
He made a historic statement: “The EU opened its doors to Turkey today. This is also the beginning of a historic process for the EU. These talks do not guarantee full membership, however, the goal is full membership.”
This statement Turkey waited for so long for shook the lounge. In his speech Balkenende said open-ended talks, which France required, had already been decided upon no matter how much Turkey objects.
Turkey was given the bad news first
However, there were two more issues I was eagerly awaiting.
Firstly, “continues restraints” and secondly, the Cyprus issue.
When Balkenende said: “These two issues will have to wait until tomorrow. We will discuss them with Erdogan this evening and try to find a solution,” we knew talks would be discontinued.
After midnight “the surprise” made its appearance when Balkenende prepared an unexpected proposal, namely, that Turkey should sign the Ankara Protocol, which required Turkey to expand its customs union to include Cyprus, and, to sign it in Brussels the next morning.
This was the unexpected development.
In recent weeks, and in particular Britain, it was pointed how important the Cyprus paragraph was and that it must remain in the text, however, Turkey did not pay much attention to this issue.
British took the lead of the EU-member countries that are sensitive about the Cyprus issue. However, even they did not expect this much. When Holland came up with this proposal, a crisis started after midnight on Thursday.
The Turkish Delegation also heard this proposal for the first time and then the EU threw “continuous restraints” and Cyprus in their bargaining pot.
Prime Minister Erdogan and Foreign Minister Gül along with some politicians and diplomats went to the Council, and said: “We do not accept this, unless it is announced that the protocol will be signed after the talks with the EU have begun.”
But Holland was persistent.
It should have been signed.
At this stage, it was understood that the delegation was unprepared and did not list their priorities before leaving for Brussels. Whereas, a little while ago, warnings came from EU capitals about issues, including Cyprus, to be included in the declaration that asked Turkey to determine its priorities.
The delegation returned to their hotel at about 2:30 a.m. Friday morning with sullen faces. Gül, who is an emotional person, looked really downcast, while Erdogan, who is a good actor, said: “We submitted our proposal, let’s wait and see.”
In signing the Cyprus protocol in Brussels the image of Erdogan would project the image of being under pressure and that he had bowed to the will of the EU and surrendered Cyprus. It would be interpreted as the submission of Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC) to the Greek Cypriots, which would be a political suicide. It was out of the question for Erdogan to sign it, and this is exactly what the Turkish press thought, i.e. “Erdogan should not sign it.”
It was such a great shock when we started to think that maybe “the countries who want Turkey to quit proposed this.”
It is interesting that the prime minister spent more time behind closed doors with Justice and Development Party (AKP) deputies and not consulting very much with the Foreign Ministry during this period.
Turkey was given the good news on Friday
The bargaining marathon started at 8:30 a.m. on Friday.
There was a dull atmosphere during breakfast. The delegation said: “Let us wait until the prime minister gets a response from the Council, then we will reach a deal.” What I noticed was that some politicians around the prime minister said that summit talks at this stage should not be terminated since that would result in more substantial damage because such a step would not mean formally recognizing Cyprus.
The delegation occupied both the room that was reserved for them and the lounge that was reserved for the Netherlands. Meanwhile a smoking marathon started!
The first signs came after the British intervened. They either realized that Erdogan would not sign such a document in Brussels or they got intervened as being a part of this scenario.
During this bargaining, Erdogan said he would not sign anything and if they insisted he would return to Turkey. The British (once again) and then German intervened. They did not want the summit to end unsuccessfully.
At 10:00 a.m. on Friday morning Turkey was offered a new Cyprus drafting.
Yet this was not satisfactory either. This meant Turkey had to make a commitment to expand the protocol before accession talks started. Ankara insisted that this protocol should have included such words as “It will be expanded as a result of some talks with the Greek.”
Now it’s up to Papadoupulos
It required pressure on the Greek Cypriot leader Tassos Papadopulos to reach this stage, who saw that what he had gained a day ago was slipping through his fingers. But there was not much he could do. Greece did not want to break its ties with Turkey.
As the hours proceeded Turkey gained another concession, namely, “In case talks are unsuccessful, the sentence ‘Turkey anchored the EU’ would be modified to ‘If Turkey desires so’. ”
What did Turkey gain at the end of this fight on Dec. 17?
- In case open-ended talks end unsuccessfully, it will be up to Turkey to align itself with the EU.
- Continued restraints were made flexible to some extent.
- Got away with signing the document on Cyprus.
- Obtaining a clear date from the EU for accession talks.
- Imposing the condition that the goal of talks is full membership
- The EU has opened its doors to Turkey.
History will record all this anyhow. Furthermore, nobody will remember the Cyprus Protocol, or whether the talks were open-ended or not.
To sum up, Turkey gained.
Turkey better get used to drinking the EU cool aid because they have'nt seen nothing yet.
It is interesting that the entire EU suffers together now. In the past, their independant currencies allowed them to adapt positions to the world market that suited each country best at the time. Now, they all must suffer the same (currency) fate together. I wonder how much longer it will last.
So can anyone translate into comprehensible english, what, if anything, actually happened? Sounds to me like a whole lot of more of the same: The EU promising to let Turkey in just as soon as they climb insurmountable obstacles.
Political Thanksgiving for the meat carvers in the EU?
Thanks for the translation. Maybe self-interest will prevail. I don't have a lot of hope for Europe.
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