Cash Registers in November Weren't Slow Only at Wal-Mart

The Wall Street Journal ^ | December 3, 2004 | JAMES COVERT

[snowsislander]

The holiday shopping season is off to a sluggish start [...]

Retailers yesterday reported mostly disappointing sales for November -- confirming worries that tepid results over Thanksgiving weekend weren't limited to giant Wal-Mart, and that most American consumers simply aren't in a free-spending holiday mood. [...]

"There was widespread speculation about whether Wal-Mart's poor results represented those of retailing as a whole," says Bill Dreher, an analyst at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York. "Increasingly, it looks as though they do."

Wal-Mart and other discounters may face the toughest holiday prospects, as lower-income shoppers continue to struggle amid a lackluster job market, tepid wage growth and high gasoline and home-heating bills. [...] However, results for upscale venues such as Nordstrom Inc. and Neiman Marcus Group Inc. also failed to meet analysts' expectations.

[...]

Many department stores and specialty chains located at malls also reported disappointing November sales, saying that customer traffic declined significantly after seeing healthy increases in October. Federated Department Stores Inc., which operates Macy's and Bloomingdale's, said its same-store sales declined 1.4%, missing its own forecast. [...]

[...]

LEADERS & LAGGERS

[...]

Biggest Gains
Bebe Stores 23%
American Eagle 23%*
Gadzooks 13%
Starbucks 13%
J.C. Penney 12%
Biggest Losses
Wet Seal -20%
Bombay Company -13%
Mothers Work -12%
Gymboree -10%
Pier 1 Imports -9.1%
* Includes American Eagle and Bluenotes/Thriftys stores
[...]

[...] Target Corp. -- Wal-Mart's smaller, trendier rival -- said its same-store sales matched Wall Street's expectation of a 3.2% increase, and said it expects its December same-store sales to jump 3% to 5%. Staples such as food and pharmacy items fueled sales, and shoes also were hot sellers, Target said.

[...]

[snowsislander]

Online retailers reported steady or surging traffic on Friday and with the strong start were poised to grow sales by 20 or 30 percent this season compared with a year ago.

That looks great -- have you seen any updates from that story of November 26th? Also, several posters have indicated that they personally know of online retail is doing well. The Internet has long been predicted to be an engine of growth for retail sales.

I checked the WSJ article search, and here is what I found about Internet shopping:

12/02/04: Blue Is the New Black: The Monday after the Thanksgiving holiday is one of the busiest online-shopping days of the year as employees return to work and their high-speed Internet connections. The number of online purchases made on Blue Monday, as some have dubbed it because of the blue hyperlinks on Web pages, shot up 71% from Black Friday, according to new data from security-software maker VeriSign.

11/29/04: More people than ever chose to let their fingers do their holiday shopping . Consumers spent $250 million online on Friday, a 41% increase over the $174 million they spent online on the same day a year ago, according to comScore Networks, a Reston, Va., company that tracks Web site activity. For the November-December holiday season, online spending is expected to surpass $15 billion -- marking as much as a 26% increase over last year, comScore says.

[FITZ]

There was this very ironic article in the newspaper here:

http://www.borderlandnews.com/stories/borderland/20041204-202423.shtml

They've come to tell the 15,000 people who lost jobs from NAFTA how wonderful it is --- and how the federal government will be handing out $3,000 to $4,000 to the laid off --- you'd think if free trade were really so helpful the federal government wouldn't have to be spending billions of dollars (more than $20 billion a year) because it's been such a disaster:

Kristin Forbes, 34, the youngest member of the President's Council of Economic Advisers, spoke Friday about solutions to lost manufacturing jobs that have hit El Paso hard.

The best way to strengthen the nation's manufacturing sector is for the United States to continue to expand trade with other nations, including China, and to take other steps to improve the national economy as a whole, including improved retraining programs for laid-off workers, she said.

El Paso's garment industry has lost thousands of jobs in recent years.

Forbes said President Bush has proposed spending $20 billion in 2005 for job training and re-employment programs. "Some (programs) had checkered successes" and need improvement, she said.

A new idea is "personal re-employment accounts," which would provide money, perhaps $3,000 to $4,000, to laid-off workers to spend "as they see fit" for training or other help to get another job, Forbes said. Congress approved a pilot project to test the idea, she said.

[sweetliberty]

Perhaps it has something to do with people feeling that if they can't celebrate Christmas in the marketplace, then they shouldn't support the marketplace with THEIR money at Christmas.

I know that's an exaggeration, but seriously, I do think that as Christmas has become more secular and commercial and less spiritual over the years, people who are spiritual have withdrawn from the traditional hustle and bustle of the Christmas season into more private and low key celebrations that still revere the birth of Christ. Were it not for that event in human history, we would have no reason to celebrate.

.

.

"For unto us a child is born, unto us a son is given: and the government shall be upon his shoulder: and his name shall be called Wonderful, Counsellor, The mighty God, The everlasting Father, The Prince of Peace. (Is. 9:6)

[eno_]

Everyone is shopping online. And everyone else is buying gift certificates.

Just got off Amazon. Done with shopping.

I just wish Ikea's e-commerce didn't suck so bad.

[eno_]

Bebe up 23%, Wet Seal down 20%? The good news: Slutty women are making more money!

[ninenot]

One wonders if Krisine Forbes actually ever held a job not provided by the Gummint or her daddy.

[dogbyte12]

It is a changing priority for us I know. We are doing crafts, buying clothes, not spending ridiculous amounts for new computers and the like.

Jesus is the reason for the season. I don't know how buying a 40" HDTV celebrates the birth of christ.

[ninenot]

I disagree.

With anything in particular?

"New Jobs" have not even kept up with the number of people entering the job market since mid-2000--and that number doesn't count the illegals.

The Administration's insistence on favoring Red China, a sworn enemy of the USA, is silly. It was a Clinton policy (bought and paid for by the ChiComs--see Clinton's campaign finance reports from 1990/91 and the accompanying footnotes in the American Spectator following his election.)

Bush ought to simply admit that Clinton was mistaken (he doesn't HAVE to call him a traitor) and suspend MFN/PNTR for Red China.

[Paperdoll]

Perhaps people are turning to the real meaning of Christmas - something homemade like a pair of sox or mittens, a cap, or maybe just one really neat thing "from the heart"; and turning away from the rampant commercialism of the day of Holy Remembrance of the True Gift which God gave the world, Himself in human form.

I really seem to like long sentences, don't I?

[B4Ranch]

>>They don't get counted as sales until the person redeems them.<<

That's because of the varying tax rates.

[Gabz]

With anything in particular?

Primarily your comment regarding consumers running out of cash.

I gave examples, as did numerous other posters of how spending patterns have changed. Changing spending habits and patterns does not necessarily equate to less cash - possibly just smarter shoppers.

[FITZ]

Imagine the arrogance --- coming to tell a city which has lost it's best jops how great it is that so many have lost their jobs ---- but never fear! --- big government to the rescue! What the government takes away in jobs, the government can give back as welfare. $20 billion a year?? This isn't "free" trade at all --- it's requiring far too much Socialism.

[FITZ]

real meaning of Christmas - something homemade like a pair of sox or mittens, a cap, or maybe just one really neat thing "from the heart";

You mean the Great Depression era gifts?

[Paperdoll]

>You mean the Great Depression gifts?<

well, they were good enough for me and my family, and we REALLY appreciated what we did get, not like the overgifted kids of today.

[Paperdoll]

PS

And besides, I still knit sox and sweaters for my grandchildren, and they are always very happy, and they wear them until they are worn out, to boot.

[Joe Hadenuf]

I tend to agree. We personally will be spending as little as possible this Christmas.

[viaveritasvita]

LOL! Watch your head, something's falling and it ain't the prices!

<><

[Gabz]

I like long sentences, too!!!!!

I love homemade gifts and I love to make them as much as the giving of them. For many years we laughed about a bottle of homemade "Grand Marnier" I made for my grandmother......as expensive as most premium liquers can be, it would have been less expensive to purchase a bottle!!!

[Joe Hadenuf]

Jesus is the reason for the season. I don't know how buying a 40" HDTV celebrates the birth of christ.

Agree. We keep seeing commercials showing these guys buying $25,000 new cars, and they are sitting in the driveway with big ribbons on them. We just saw a commercial push $3,000 diamond ear rings for Christmas gifts.

Who are they kidding? Most folks are debted out and are cutting back.

What happened to simple gifts for the kids and family?

These commercials are really sad. Seems the only time we hear Christmas music is when someone is trying to sell you something on TV or at the mall.

[Cooltouch]

Most likely two words can be used to account for this: Online Shopping.

Dunno about you, but I can't stand getting out into the traffic snarls this time of year. It's mayhem here in Houston.