Cash Registers in November Weren't Slow Only at Wal-Mart

The Wall Street Journal ^ | December 3, 2004 | JAMES COVERT

[snowsislander]

The holiday shopping season is off to a sluggish start [...]

Retailers yesterday reported mostly disappointing sales for November -- confirming worries that tepid results over Thanksgiving weekend weren't limited to giant Wal-Mart, and that most American consumers simply aren't in a free-spending holiday mood. [...]

"There was widespread speculation about whether Wal-Mart's poor results represented those of retailing as a whole," says Bill Dreher, an analyst at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York. "Increasingly, it looks as though they do."

Wal-Mart and other discounters may face the toughest holiday prospects, as lower-income shoppers continue to struggle amid a lackluster job market, tepid wage growth and high gasoline and home-heating bills. [...] However, results for upscale venues such as Nordstrom Inc. and Neiman Marcus Group Inc. also failed to meet analysts' expectations.

[...]

Many department stores and specialty chains located at malls also reported disappointing November sales, saying that customer traffic declined significantly after seeing healthy increases in October. Federated Department Stores Inc., which operates Macy's and Bloomingdale's, said its same-store sales declined 1.4%, missing its own forecast. [...]

[...]

LEADERS & LAGGERS

[...]

Biggest Gains
Bebe Stores 23%
American Eagle 23%*
Gadzooks 13%
Starbucks 13%
J.C. Penney 12%
Biggest Losses
Wet Seal -20%
Bombay Company -13%
Mothers Work -12%
Gymboree -10%
Pier 1 Imports -9.1%
* Includes American Eagle and Bluenotes/Thriftys stores
[...]

[...] Target Corp. -- Wal-Mart's smaller, trendier rival -- said its same-store sales matched Wall Street's expectation of a 3.2% increase, and said it expects its December same-store sales to jump 3% to 5%. Staples such as food and pharmacy items fueled sales, and shoes also were hot sellers, Target said.

[...]

[snowsislander]

Sorry about the heavy excerpting -- the Wall Street Jouranl article was a good one with figures for several retailers. It would have been nice if they had indicated some absolute numbers rather than just percetages, but worth reading.

Overall, it looks like a mixed season. Some chains are showing what appear to be great numbers: Bebe Stores, American Eagle, Gadzooks, Starbucks, and J.C. Penney are all above 10%. Others lag, as indicated in the story and I tried to retain as much indicative text as possible.

[Gabz]

Wal-Mart and other discounters may face the toughest holiday prospects, as lower-income shoppers continue to struggle amid a lackluster job market, tepid wage growth and high gasoline and home-heating bills.

I'm no economist and while some of this is definitely true.......I think it has more to do with the marketting practice of these retailers.

Pre-Christmas (holiday) sales used to start on Black Friday.....now they have begun in October. By extending the shopping season they are diluting their market.

Folks that would normally wait for the sales in November took advantage of the sales in October and didn't bother with November shopping.

[EagleUSA]

I can just imagine what it would have looked like, if J-F'in Kerry had been elected, preaching his tax increases, tax-and-spend Marxist dogma, it most likely would have been pretty ugly...and especially after he had continued the liberal penalization of the producers in this country...freakin' Marxist IDIOT.

[xrp]

Online retailers reported steady or surging traffic on Friday and with the strong start were poised to grow sales by 20 or 30 percent this season compared with a year ago.

[traderrob6]

Thank God what you say is only speculation and not reality

[dawn53]

I oversee online sales for a local company that sells it's products online, also.

Our best month ever was this past month.

[ThreePuttinDude]

The supposed poorer #'s for Walmart, must not have included the stores on the west coast of Florida. I travel 5 days a week, and since the report has been made public, I've been noticing the parking lots of Walmarts and SamsClubs. They have been full, almost to capacity, and that is during the day when most of us are at a job/work/business.

So, where are they coming up with these numbers?



TPD

[snowsislander]

I can just imagine what it would have looked like, if J-F'in Kerry had been elected, preaching his tax increases, tax-and-spend Marxist dogma, it most likely would have been pretty ugly...and especially after he had continued the liberal penalization of the producers in this country...freakin' Marxist IDIOT.

Everything in the economy would be down -- the stockmarket would be down and oil prices probably would have stayed inflated.

Senator Kerry was by the way endorsed by the Communist Party USA, and their website has a big article about how disappointed that their candidate wasn't elected.

The article takes the stance that the economy is in a fairly mixed state: some retailers are doing very well with 20% year-on-year growth. Some are doing worse than last year, but that's how it works. Not everyone has a banner year every year.

I would have liked to have seen better shopping numbers; I had really liked the durable goods production for this year -- last I looked a few weeks ago, it was very encouraging. And I think exports will be better than last year. Right now, we are at $607 billion in exports through September (seasonally adjusted) well ahead of last year at this time, and I think we may break $800 billion for the whole year. ( Here are where I picked up the latest trade numbers.)

[Smogger]

Everyone is shopping online. And everyone else is buying gift certificates.

I buy more and more gift certificates every year. And the new Visa ones issued buy my bank are right up my alley. They don't get counted as sales until the person redeems them.

[ninenot]

The economics are simple. The consumer is running out of cash. Refi mortgage cash is gone; pay after COLA is down, again, and worked-hours are down, too. Manufacturing lost ANOTHER 5,000 jobs (BLS) and the October "jobs gained" category was adjusted down by 58,000.

Want all that reduced to the bottom line? THERE AIN'T NO MONEY OUT THERE.

That's why clothing is big, and coffee for waiting spouses in the mall lobby.

[umgud]

I avoid all shopping centers, malls, etc. Dec/Jan.

[dwilli]

I've passed several Walmarts in the last two weeks and have yet to see any open parking spaces. Are folks just going there to
hang out?

[pke]

Every year we hear: "This will be the worst flu and cold season ever!"
In the spring: "This will be the hottest summer ever!"
In the fall: "This will be the coldest winter ever!"
If you live in an area that floods:"This will be the wettest year ever!"
If you live in a drought area:"This will be the dryest year ever!"
Now it the "This is the worst Christmas shopping season ever!" time of year.
Thankyou Chicken Little!

[pissant]

complete BS. Proof their is too many leeches (economists) sucking a pay check, for no good reason.

[FreedomPoster]

My SIL has an Internet retailing business. Her volume in 2004 is 2x her volume in 2003. Those $$$ are coming from somewhere. I bet there are a lot of online retail sales, in aggregate, that don't ever get into "retail sales figures".

Her site is http://4thebeach.com ; she's been in the WSJ and was just on Wheel of Fortune as a bonus prize package.

[FITZ]

Maybe because Walmart is actually having to lower it's prices by quite a lot to attract buyers.

[FreedomPoster]

See my previous post; another anecdotal data point, on your theme.

[FITZ]

most American consumers simply aren't in a free-spending holiday mood.

We might be if gasoline weren't 2 to 3 times what it should be. Around here property taxes took another big hike up so that leaves less money for spending on consumer items.

[garbanzo]

I was wondering when someone would mention this obscure thing called the "internet"...

[Gabz]

I disagree.