Elephants in the Living Room

11/24/2004 | Coryoth

[FreedomPoster]

Source link for the article?

[Coryoth]

I wrote it, so there are no links. I am new here, so a little sketchy on the topics: Should I _only_ include "Your Opinion/Questions" for "Vanity" articles? I included 2 others that seemed relevant, but if that is misplaced I apologise.

[Bon mots]

Is THIS the source?

[nathanbedford]

oops.

[FreedomPoster]

OK, just wanted to know that. That's a pretty heavy-duty article to call it a "vanity", but I suppose many would consider it that.

[bpcons]

That was very interesting. Makes for a lot of food for thought.

[Coryoth]

That was me (feel free to note the usernames) posting an initial version of the article to a left wing site to

(a) Get some free editing via Kuro5hin's edit queue.
(b) Gauge reaction, and get more ideas.

I am now posting the article (you'll note it has differences - mostly an extra paragraph regarding the US using home currency to service its debt) to a conservative site to present the ideas here, and again gauge reaction and get more ideas - please feel free to make suggestions to ways I could fix or expand the article.

I consider this a relatively non-partisan piece of interest to both sides, and want input and discussion from both sides if I can get it. I fully intend to post futher edited versions of the the same piece to other boards in the future.

[Blue_Ridge_Mtn_Geek]

That was me (feel free to note the usernames) posting an initial version of the article to a left wing site to

(a) Get some free editing via Kuro5hin's edit queue.
(b) Gauge reaction, and get more ideas.

I am now posting the article (you'll note it has differences - mostly an extra paragraph regarding the US using home currency to service its debt) to a conservative site to present the ideas here, and again gauge reaction and get more ideas - please feel free to make suggestions to ways I could fix or expand the article.

I consider this a relatively non-partisan piece of interest to both sides, and want input and discussion from both sides if I can get it. I fully intend to post futher edited versions of the the same piece to other boards in the future.

---

Thanks for your analysis. I've been discussing this for some time with my Asian co-workers (from India and China). Seems odd to me that Chinese factory workers are stiffed in their wages by the imbalance between US$ and Yuan, meanwhile idling US factory workers, and Indian knowledge workers are used as bludgeons to drive down US labor costs, while we Americans get to buy a lot of stuff "cheap", and fund loans for McMansions, thanks to the artificially low home loan rates that we can lock in, thanks to various central bankers.

I wish prosperity for all my neighbors. Current trends are not propitious for fullfillment of that wish, however.

[FreedomPoster]

Ping.

[playball0]

This analysis of doom is flawed, because it fails to look at other trends that are moving in the US favor. For example, the increase in home ownership, the successes against the the Islamist, increase of limits on lawsuits, economic growth rates, etc.

[FreedomPoster]

A few pings to some folks on another thread.

[4-A-FreeRepublic]

IMHO, you have ignored something obvious.

Look at a long term chart of the $us.

Overlay a chart of the SPX or other major US stock index.

You will see that the buck last bottomed in this area in 1995. Another period when doom was predicted.

Yet, even the youngsters here know that from that base a wonderful period for the US economy, for stocks, for business, for employment was launched.

I'll take more of that 1995 doom, thank you very much.

Regards

[Modok]

More democratic gloom and doom. The liberal RATs would love to see the US falter economically under Bush. This trash will keep the liberal lurkers and shakey kneed happy for a while.

[Modok]

Just noticed that you joined on November 21, 2004. Did you stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night?

[Coryoth]

This analysis of doom is flawed, because it fails to look at other trends that are moving in the US favor. For example, the increase in home ownership, the successes against the the Islamist, increase of limits on lawsuits, economic growth rates, etc.

I agree that the article doesn't cover issues in the US favour, and there are many, but I don't view that as a flaw, in the sense that the article is merely an analysis of some of the problems. A full discussion would be considerably longer, and I felt that this was pushing the length limits already. The positives would best be addressed in a separate article.

Instead I simply tried to point out, in both the ontroduction and conclusion, that while the points discussed are problems, they are not portents of imminent doom. Disaster is not likely. They are, however, significant issues that do need to be considered, regardless of the positives.

In specific reply - the increase in home ownership is actually an increase in household mortgage debt (unless you mean an increase in people clearing their mortgages - which I haven't seen any figures on, but may well be true). While I appreciate the gains made against the radical Islamists, I would have to question how that strengthens the US economic position significantly (though certainly security is strengthened). The increase on limits on lawsuits is a very positive sign, I agree. As to economic growth rates - certainly the US is now moving ahead again after the recession - unfortunately this improvement has yet to have an effect in reversing the trends in the current account deficit and the US Dollar. It is still early in the recovery of course, so we may not see the effects for some time. In the meantime I would simply suggest that we keep a close eye on the Dollar, and tread a little carefully until the economic growth truly kicks in.

[Arkie2]

Good article. You'll catch some grief here because you're new and your article isn't all wine and roses. Hope you get the input you desire. Try to ignore the sniping.

[ExGeeEye]

I have absolutely no knowledge or education in this area, but my gut reactions based on some historical knowledge and observation of current conditions have been mostly on target.

On this one, I say: the strengthening Euro feels like the tech bubble. People are getting into it for the wrong reasons, and it's unsustainable.

People got into tech because they felt "that's where it's at", not because the dot-coms were making money. People are getting into the Euro and away from the dollar because the dollar is US, which is seen as eeeeevil and capitalistic, and Europe is "where it's at" politically and "morally".

The dot-coms weren't making money, so the bubble was unsustainable. When it went bust, so did those heavily invested in it.

The Euro countries, led by France and Germany, have huge unemployment, low productivity, and life-sucking socialism; a currency based on that is unsustainable at high valuations. When it goes bust, those who still can will run back to the dollar, which for all the debt above-mentioned, has low unemployment, high-productivity, and fair-to-partly social suckage. The dollar, therefore, while not due for big boom of its own, merits at lest stability and even moderate growth

Sorry for the nonensical ramble. See the time stamp and tagline for an explanation. Also I have to wrap this up and get to work. Now.

[tcostell]

You point to several problems for managing the US economy, but you seem to treat the possibility of all catastrophic events with equal probability. what I mean to say is, that while it's true that foreign investment in the US could stop instantly, the likelihood of that happening is actually very small for lots of reasons.

In fact, all of the catastrophic events you warn about seem to involve decisions by large groups of investors which all occur simultaneously, but there are serious limits on their behavior which you don't address.

It's rare that a large group of people, forming independent decisions, all arrive at the same conclusion on the same day. This fact imposes intrinsic limits on the behavior of the markets, so an out and out catastrophe is rare.

For those precipitous changes, there are lots of signals leading up the event, and even if the exact moment of the event can't be predicted, it's cumulative likelihood can be, but those conditions don't really exist right now.

I'm not saying that you need to only discuss wine and roses, but the fact is, that markets don't crash every day, so you don't need to treat every day as if there will be a market collapse.

[Coryoth]

More democratic gloom and doom.

I am not a Democrat - I have no love for the Democrats at all in fact, and would be quite disappointed to see them in power. I don't think this is a Republican/Democrat issue - neither party are taking any time to address these concerns yet, and this is what I see as the problem. The need to cast everything into a Republican/Democrat dichotomy, whether it fits or not, doesn't help address the issues.

I can point you to an article in which the former chairman of the US Federal Reserve suggests that some of these issues are of concern. I can even you point to a very recent speech by the current chairman of the Federal Reserve (who is by no means a Democrat alarmist) stating that several of these issues are of concern.

Is the US economy doomed? No, far from it. Is there reason for concern? Yes, these issues deserve to be watched.

I do understand you point of view - in that there has been much in the way of sniping and bickering from Democrats and Democrat supporters. This is not one of those - this is an attempt to give an account and analysis of some important issues that have remained almost below the radar, but deserve to be addressed.