China Rapidly Modernizes for War With U.S.

During the last several months, there have been numerous hints in the Chinese and Taiwanese media indicating that war is more likely than believed here in the West.

Some strategists suggest that the 2008 Olympics scheduled for Beijing constitute a key benchmark, after which a war may be possible. However, it is clear that both nations are preparing for a conflict in the near term, and that 2008 may not be as pivotal as some experts believe.

In fact, China’s media have been repeating the mantra in their news reports that the People’s Liberation Army is preparing to gain a victory in this “internal military conflict in a high-tech environment.”

Chinese war planners have studied carefully the recent U.S.-Iraq War, a war that demonstrated to PLA strategists that U.S. military might is derived from its technological superiority.

China’s military experts conducted similar studies after America’s first Gulf War. One military study written by two Chinese colonels entitled “Unrestricted Warfare” suggested that China could not compete with America’s technological prowess.

Instead, China had to develop “asymmetrical” warfare to defeat the U.S. in any conflict.

Interestingly, “Unrestricted Warfare” became an instant best seller in China after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. In the 1998 book, the Chinese colonels suggested that a successful bombing by Osama bin Laden of the World Trade Center would be an example of this new “unrestricted warfare” concept.

Apparently, China feels much better positioned after the recent Iraq War and wants to challenge the U.S. on a technological level.

Almost instantly after the Iraq War, in May 2003, China’s President and Communist Party General Secretary Hu Jintao declared at the party’s Politburo meeting the necessity of “active support of national defense and modernization of the army.”

Hu emphasized the need for further integrating information technology (IT) into the PLA and mobilizing China’s entire scientific and technological potential for PLA’s needs.

As a result, the PLA’s modernization in these areas has accelerated significantly.

Since the second half of 2003, the PLA has been engaged in the latest stage of its RMA – Revolution in Military Affairs – program, which was officially announced by the chairman of China Central Military Commission, Jiang Zemin, in his speech on Sept. 1, 2003.

He emphasized that that PLA should transform itself into a “smaller and much smarter science- and technology-based army.”

Maximizing IT and other advanced technologies – including nanotechnologies, space technologies, electromagnetic weapons, etc.

Transforming the PLA into an “army of one” that is comparatively smaller and of very high quality, similar to the U.S. Army.

During 2003 and 2004, Russia – jointly with Belarus and Ukraine – has been a major source of advanced weapons for the PLA.

According to official figures from Russia’s weapons export state monopoly, Rosoboronexport, Russia’s total weapons export in 2003 approached $5.7 billion, making Russia the second largest arms exporter after the U.S. (Please note that China is arguably the leading arms exporter in quantity of arms transported, as its weaponry is considerably less expensive than that of the U.S.)

If one takes into account the weapons deliveries from Belarus and Ukraine to China, along with “double use” nuclear and space technologies supplied by Russia to China, then Chinese real arms imports from greater Russia would, in my estimation, be $4 billion.

Clearly, Russia and her allies have been a huge factor supporting the PLA in its rapid modernization and planned confrontation with the U.S.

The PLA has been following its “three-way policy” of advanced weapons acquisition.

This three-pronged strategy calls for China to gain technologically advanced weaponry through (1) imports, (2) joint (Chinese-foreign) weapons R&D, and (3) independent weapons R&D within China.

The details of this mechanism were given in the article “China’s military affairs in 2003,” published by the Taiwanese journal Zhonggong yanjiu (China Communism Research) in February 2004.

According to Taiwanese experts, though weapons import and joint R&D still play the major role in PLA modernization, the role of “independent R&D” has been increasing gradually.

Appointed in March 2003, new Chinese Defense Minister (former chief of Defense Ministry’s Armament Division) Col.-Gen. Cao Gangchuan was personally in charge of this work.

He has tried to decrease China’s dependence on Russian arms and increase the share of advanced weapons imports from Germany, France and Israel.

China also is engaged in joint weapons R&D projects with EU and NATO countries, including R&D of mid-range air-to-air missiles and highly precise satellite positioning (Galileo project).

China believes that in a conflict with Taiwan, air dominance will be key to a quick victory.

The PLA has been beefing up its PLA Air Force (PLAAF) and aircraft troops of the PLA Navy (PLAN).

Reportedly, by the end of February 2004, the PLAAF purchased from Russia 76 SU-30 MKK fighters belonging to the advanced “4 plus” generation.

There is no data regarding future deliveries of the “finished” SU-30 from Russia to China; however, the Chinese aircraft industry is more or less capable now of producing the SU-30 as well as other fighters belonging to the fourth generation, or close to this level.

Dramatic modernization of China’s First Aviation Industry Corp., or AVIC-1, from 2001 to 2004, is of principal importance here (the data in this account are given in the above-mentioned article in the Zhonggong yanjiu journal).

Four major companies are developing China’s jet-manufacturing capability. Interestingly, each of these companies recently underwent radical modernization and upgrading, including advanced equipment obtained from Europe’s Airbus, claiming the help is for “cooperation in passenger aircraft production.”

Shenyang Aircraft Corp. continued, in the past year, to produce SU-27 SK (J-11) heavy fighters from Russian kits at a rate of at least 25 units annually, and the share of Chinese-made components surpassed 70 percent.

In the frame of “independent R&D” within China, the Chengdu Aircraft Corp. has mastered the serial production of medium J-10 fighters and FC-1 light fighters. These planes reportedly can match the U.S. F-16 fighter.

Guizhou Aircraft Corp. developed the advanced Shanying fighter-trainer, while Xian Aircraft Corp. mostly finished developing the new generation of FBC-1 (JH-7) long-range fighter-bomber, which became known as JH-7A.

Other enterprises, belonging to AVIC-1, mastered production of KAB-500 guided bombs and several kinds of air-to-air and air-to ground missiles.

By the end of 2003, the new generation of Flying Leopard, i.e., JH-7A, was being tested. This fighter-bomber’s weapons include new air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles of beyond-vision range, guided bombs, etc. This aircraft is adapted for anti-radar reconnaissance, effective low-altitude strikes against large naval vessels, and general strikes of ground-based and naval targets.

By the end of 2004, as a result of supply from Russia and increased fighter production at AVIC-1 subsidiaries, the number of advanced fighters of various kinds in PLAN air troops and the PLAAF – including SU-27 (J-11), SU-30 (J-11A), J-10, FC-1, Shanying, FBC-1 (JH-7) and JH-7A – could surpass an estimated 400 units. The Sea Component

The PLA Navy (PLAN) has numerous Chinese-Russian projects under way this year and next, including:

Purchase of two Russian Sovremenny destroyers, equipped with improved ship-to-ship supersonic cruise missiles (SSM) Sunburn 3M80MBE of 240 km range. Initially, Sunburn had a range of 160 km. However, in 2001-2003, Raduga Design Bureau in Dubna (about 150 km north of Moscow) designed, under PLAN’s orders, a much more lethal version of SSM.

Very probably, serial production of new SSM would be mastered in China, so it would be installed on two Sovremenny destroyers, purchased by PLAN in 1999-2000, on Chinese-built Luhu- and Luhai-class destroyers as well as Jiangwei-class frigates. According to media reports in the Hong Kong and Taiwan media, two new Sovremenny destroyers could be transferred to PLAN before the end of 2005.

Purchase of eight Kilo submarines, equipped by “super-advanced” 3M54E (CLUB-S) submarine-launched anti-ship missiles. In 2003, China already obtained 50 missiles of this kind, which would greatly improve PLAN’s striking capacity. China intends to organize production of these missiles. They probably also could be used on Chinese-built conventional submarines of the Song class.

New Kilo submarines could enter PLAN service in 2005 or the first half of 2006. (Information regarding destroyers and conventional submarines was repeated in several articles in Zhonggong yanjiu in January 2003 through February 2004 and in multiple media reports from Hong Kong during the same period.)

Construction of “093 project” nuclear attack submarines and the “094 project” strategic nuclear submarine, using Russian plans and technology, at Huludao (a port city in northeast Liaoning province) military shipbuilding plant. By the end of 2005, PLAN would have in its service at least two “093 project” and at least one “094 project” nuclear submarines. Reportedly, Russia had to make significant improvements in design and weapons of these submarines, in accordance with Chinese customers’ requirements.

Along with Russian contracts is the construction of a new generation of destroyers, frigates and conventional submarines at modernized shipbuilding plants in Dalian, Shanghai, Qingdao and Wuhan cities. An upgraded PLA could be capable pf establishing sea control around Taiwan in 2008.

Aso important is the fact that both the PLAAF and PLAN would be equipped, by 2008, with perfect military information technology systems, more precisely by C4ISR (command, control, computers, communication, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) systems, which would make the use of the listed weapon systems much more effective.

It is not so much the name of the enemy as it is the process that the enemy follows that seems to work. Additionally, there is the "Front Group." People are eternally fooled by "Big" words and phrases, i.e. peace,dialogue, tolerance, equality, justice, inclusion, immigrants, undocumented workers, etc. etc. People bow to popular people, actors, rock stars. Couple the latter individuals with a big word and generally one has a winner.

You think China is going to invade America with a platoon of MPs from Haiti and a couple loading docks in Panama?
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We have them encircled by growing alliances of rich prosperous free countries who are rearming rapidly, we can fry their 200 million soldiers in 2 hours, they are a totalitarian dictatorship with no popular mandate, their economy is utterly dependent on ours- SO YES OF COURSE THEY WILL ATTACK US SOONER IF NOT LATER.

yawn........................boy them chinese are sure bright about their self-interest.

Why yes they ARE, that's why this Sunday afternoon hysteria is pure crap...............reaches for popcorn

>A war with China would be a good thing IMO. We could cancel our national debt>>><

Oh, but to the victor go the spoils. Why would they nuke us when they could drop a few neutron bombs in strategic places. Our government is so full of the far left they would probably accede were it not for our great POTUS.(See NYers post #16 under Senators Who OpposeBush Judges On Abortion Will Lead Senate Democrats and click on his link, The Enemy within).

And to think we enabled China (thanks to William Jefferson Clinton) by supplying all the ammo they need, and the prosperity by way of outsourcing to pay for it.

Remember how Spain folded for just a rail incident. What would America do should a few of those bombs hit us? I hope to God in His Heaven that we never have to find out. That war would likely finish America and Israel as we knoe them simultaneously, for surely Israel would be targeted as well.

One way or another it's not going to be pretty, folks, but stay tuned.

I assume you're talking about post #65. That is the real danger the world faces. I'm not so worried about Red China invading the US. Red China's military buildup will be used to make us think twice before intervening in one of their Wars of National Liberation (being the most dangerous Communist weapon of all...not their military or their nukes).

What bothers me is , I saw a C SPAN show a few months ago, they were talking about how the USA is only producing 5000 to 6000 engineers a year, compared to those other countries like i.e china, India, who are producing 50,000 engineers a year in science, tech, ect.
We need to keep our tech edge ahead of those other countries. They send their collage students to our universities here in the USA, then, go back to their countries and use our science or tech against us. We need to reform our schools, collages, universities NOW !! and start producing more engineers in our own country before its to late. I am sure, or not to sure ( don't know which one it is ) that our military planners are aware of our adversaries , enemies of our country, knowledge of their tech, military strength, tech edge, if not, they better get started now to do something about it. I have a question ? does the USA still have the TECH EDGE ? maybe there is some secret tech our country has ( and keeping it top secret )so that the MSM and the general public does not know about it. Another area that the USA should remain strong in is ECONIMIC strength. I do know, some collage students from other countries come here, and get degrees from our univeristys, and never go back home to their country, so, I guess, we can retain their collage students. But, we should ( the F.B.I , C.I.A. , N.S.A. ) they sould keep a eye on these forein students, find out how much tech knowledge they have, and make sure they don't pass any important or sensitive tech back to their country.

"You think China is going to invade America with a platoon of MPs from Haiti and a couple loading docks in Panama?"

Not exactly. But I think China has long term plans to harm the United States. I DO view with apprehension the presence of Chinese Military/Intelligence personnel in any large amounts in this hemisphere. And I believe that China has shipped large amounts of arms and ammunition to North and South America, and I wonder who it went to and where it is stored.

I have heard that half of all Chinese are the rare (here) type "O" blood. They may not wish to risk a US release of a virus that specifically targets that blood type. Russia has a lot more to fear than anyone else from the Chinese. Siberia is a vast relatively unpopulated storehouse of natural resourses. Sooner or later we'll probably be rescuing Russia once again.

Good afternoon.

China is a disaster in the making. It's society is beginning to come apart as more people cease to buy the party line for one reason or another. There are not enough jobs, not enough girls, and the food chain is barely able to keep up with the population growth. Even strict rules over family size haven't helped.

There have persecuted religions and persecuted minorities and the party leaders are hellbent on taking Taiwan.
They know we are the major threat but their population is so large they just shrug when they contemplate casualties. They are building their military with being able to defeat ours in mind. No one else matters.

War is almost inevitable. I do say almost, though.

Michael Frazier

Keep shopping at Wal-mart folks, the PLA needs the money to build the weapons it plans to use to kill your kids.

That is disgusting. But remember, all these stores, and our leaders are selling us out here. This greed is going to come back to brutally haunt us. All for the love of short term profits.

From the other article: "The Communists can now count on the U.S. State Department - "

Sounds true - I hear we are giving away land to Russia - said to be around Alaska - and now one other state wants to give more area to the UN - even though that body is a disgrace and everyone knows it -

The one article listed steps that did sound current - like what is taking place in the U.S. - and it seems like we have more "dumb" Republicans - willing to fall for all the PR crap - just as happened with Yugo. That was a crime and still many Republicans don't understand - most of what they were told was "false" and put out by a PR firm that admitted their role - I believe both sides in Yugo. had abuses(as happens in a civil war) - and sending in OBL didn't help matters -

The major media - all over the world - is the biggest problem -

just my thoughts -

Well, I won't dispute that a genuine China-Russia-Europe alliance would be formidable, but that prospect seems so remote in my view that it's in the realm of fantasy.

Leaving aside French delusions of grandeur, the European Union remains a geopolitical incoherence, that'll spend the next two decades at least just consolidating itself and expresses little interest for military confrontation with anyone.

Russia is an internal disaster zone on so many levels that can barely project the remnants of its power across its own polity, much less across Eurasia. It is also totally dependent on the largesse of outsiders in one form or another.

As for China, they are little more than a conceited Third World nation that just happens to have such a huge population that enough of them have fleeced the rest that they somewhat approximate the prowess of 'lesser' nations.

All three are walking on a tightrope of their own making and it's just as like - I would even say far more likely - that all three will collapse (the EU in a geopolitical sense) than that they will harmonize some grand anti-American alliance. Even if they manage to coordinate some efforts, it would not take long at all before their own rivalries stormed to the forefront.

There is one thing that definitely unites them: a desire to make money. In the modern world that generally means profitting off of Americans, and they know it.

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