China Rapidly Modernizes for War With U.S.

Newsmax ^ | August 2004 | Alexandr Nemets

[TapTheSource]

China Rapidly Modernizes for War With U.S.

Alexandr Nemets Tuesday, Aug. 10, 2004

During the last several months, there have been numerous hints in the Chinese and Taiwanese media indicating that war is more likely than believed here in the West.

Some strategists suggest that the 2008 Olympics scheduled for Beijing constitute a key benchmark, after which a war may be possible. However, it is clear that both nations are preparing for a conflict in the near term, and that 2008 may not be as pivotal as some experts believe.

In fact, China’s media have been repeating the mantra in their news reports that the People’s Liberation Army is preparing to gain a victory in this “internal military conflict in a high-tech environment.”

Chinese war planners have studied carefully the recent U.S.-Iraq War, a war that demonstrated to PLA strategists that U.S. military might is derived from its technological superiority.

China’s military experts conducted similar studies after America’s first Gulf War. One military study written by two Chinese colonels entitled “Unrestricted Warfare” suggested that China could not compete with America’s technological prowess.

Instead, China had to develop “asymmetrical” warfare to defeat the U.S. in any conflict.

Interestingly, “Unrestricted Warfare” became an instant best seller in China after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. In the 1998 book, the Chinese colonels suggested that a successful bombing by Osama bin Laden of the World Trade Center would be an example of this new “unrestricted warfare” concept.

Apparently, China feels much better positioned after the recent Iraq War and wants to challenge the U.S. on a technological level.

Almost instantly after the Iraq War, in May 2003, China’s President and Communist Party General Secretary Hu Jintao declared at the party’s Politburo meeting the necessity of “active support of national defense and modernization of the army.”

Hu emphasized the need for further integrating information technology (IT) into the PLA and mobilizing China’s entire scientific and technological potential for PLA’s needs.

As a result, the PLA’s modernization in these areas has accelerated significantly.

Since the second half of 2003, the PLA has been engaged in the latest stage of its RMA – Revolution in Military Affairs – program, which was officially announced by the chairman of China Central Military Commission, Jiang Zemin, in his speech on Sept. 1, 2003.

He emphasized that that PLA should transform itself into a “smaller and much smarter science- and technology-based army.”

Jiang defined the major tasks of new PLA reform as follows:

Reducing PLA’s ranks, primarily ground forces, by 200,000.

Maximizing IT and other advanced technologies – including nanotechnologies, space technologies, electromagnetic weapons, etc.

Improving the educational and qualitative training of PLA servicemen.

Transforming the PLA into an “army of one” that is comparatively smaller and of very high quality, similar to the U.S. Army.

Acquiring the most advanced weaponry.

The Russia Connection

During 2003 and 2004, Russia – jointly with Belarus and Ukraine – has been a major source of advanced weapons for the PLA.

According to official figures from Russia’s weapons export state monopoly, Rosoboronexport, Russia’s total weapons export in 2003 approached $5.7 billion, making Russia the second largest arms exporter after the U.S. (Please note that China is arguably the leading arms exporter in quantity of arms transported, as its weaponry is considerably less expensive than that of the U.S.)

China has purchased 38 percent of Russian arms exports, or around $2.2 billion.

If one takes into account the weapons deliveries from Belarus and Ukraine to China, along with “double use” nuclear and space technologies supplied by Russia to China, then Chinese real arms imports from greater Russia would, in my estimation, be $4 billion.

Clearly, Russia and her allies have been a huge factor supporting the PLA in its rapid modernization and planned confrontation with the U.S.

3-Pronged Strategy

The PLA has been following its “three-way policy” of advanced weapons acquisition.

This three-pronged strategy calls for China to gain technologically advanced weaponry through (1) imports, (2) joint (Chinese-foreign) weapons R&D, and (3) independent weapons R&D within China.

The details of this mechanism were given in the article “China’s military affairs in 2003,” published by the Taiwanese journal Zhonggong yanjiu (China Communism Research) in February 2004.

According to Taiwanese experts, though weapons import and joint R&D still play the major role in PLA modernization, the role of “independent R&D” has been increasing gradually.

Appointed in March 2003, new Chinese Defense Minister (former chief of Defense Ministry’s Armament Division) Col.-Gen. Cao Gangchuan was personally in charge of this work.

He has tried to decrease China’s dependence on Russian arms and increase the share of advanced weapons imports from Germany, France and Israel.

China also is engaged in joint weapons R&D projects with EU and NATO countries, including R&D of mid-range air-to-air missiles and highly precise satellite positioning (Galileo project).

The Air Force

China believes that in a conflict with Taiwan, air dominance will be key to a quick victory.

The PLA has been beefing up its PLA Air Force (PLAAF) and aircraft troops of the PLA Navy (PLAN).

Reportedly, by the end of February 2004, the PLAAF purchased from Russia 76 SU-30 MKK fighters belonging to the advanced “4 plus” generation.

PLAN air troops obtained 24 even more advanced SU-30 MKK fighters.

There is no data regarding future deliveries of the “finished” SU-30 from Russia to China; however, the Chinese aircraft industry is more or less capable now of producing the SU-30 as well as other fighters belonging to the fourth generation, or close to this level.

Dramatic modernization of China’s First Aviation Industry Corp., or AVIC-1, from 2001 to 2004, is of principal importance here (the data in this account are given in the above-mentioned article in the Zhonggong yanjiu journal).

Four major companies are developing China’s jet-manufacturing capability. Interestingly, each of these companies recently underwent radical modernization and upgrading, including advanced equipment obtained from Europe’s Airbus, claiming the help is for “cooperation in passenger aircraft production.”

Shenyang Aircraft Corp. continued, in the past year, to produce SU-27 SK (J-11) heavy fighters from Russian kits at a rate of at least 25 units annually, and the share of Chinese-made components surpassed 70 percent.

The same company now prepares SU-30 MKK (J-11A) fighters for manufacturing.

In the frame of “independent R&D” within China, the Chengdu Aircraft Corp. has mastered the serial production of medium J-10 fighters and FC-1 light fighters. These planes reportedly can match the U.S. F-16 fighter.

Here are some other developments in China’s air wing:

Guizhou Aircraft Corp. developed the advanced Shanying fighter-trainer, while Xian Aircraft Corp. mostly finished developing the new generation of FBC-1 (JH-7) long-range fighter-bomber, which became known as JH-7A.

Other enterprises, belonging to AVIC-1, mastered production of KAB-500 guided bombs and several kinds of air-to-air and air-to ground missiles.

By the end of 2003, the new generation of Flying Leopard, i.e., JH-7A, was being tested. This fighter-bomber’s weapons include new air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles of beyond-vision range, guided bombs, etc. This aircraft is adapted for anti-radar reconnaissance, effective low-altitude strikes against large naval vessels, and general strikes of ground-based and naval targets.

By the end of 2004, as a result of supply from Russia and increased fighter production at AVIC-1 subsidiaries, the number of advanced fighters of various kinds in PLAN air troops and the PLAAF – including SU-27 (J-11), SU-30 (J-11A), J-10, FC-1, Shanying, FBC-1 (JH-7) and JH-7A – could surpass an estimated 400 units. The Sea Component

China also sees its navy as critical in any successful assault on Taiwan.

The PLA Navy (PLAN) has numerous Chinese-Russian projects under way this year and next, including:

Purchase of two Russian Sovremenny destroyers, equipped with improved ship-to-ship supersonic cruise missiles (SSM) Sunburn 3M80MBE of 240 km range. Initially, Sunburn had a range of 160 km. However, in 2001-2003, Raduga Design Bureau in Dubna (about 150 km north of Moscow) designed, under PLAN’s orders, a much more lethal version of SSM.

Very probably, serial production of new SSM would be mastered in China, so it would be installed on two Sovremenny destroyers, purchased by PLAN in 1999-2000, on Chinese-built Luhu- and Luhai-class destroyers as well as Jiangwei-class frigates. According to media reports in the Hong Kong and Taiwan media, two new Sovremenny destroyers could be transferred to PLAN before the end of 2005.

Purchase of eight Kilo submarines, equipped by “super-advanced” 3M54E (CLUB-S) submarine-launched anti-ship missiles. In 2003, China already obtained 50 missiles of this kind, which would greatly improve PLAN’s striking capacity. China intends to organize production of these missiles. They probably also could be used on Chinese-built conventional submarines of the Song class.

New Kilo submarines could enter PLAN service in 2005 or the first half of 2006. (Information regarding destroyers and conventional submarines was repeated in several articles in Zhonggong yanjiu in January 2003 through February 2004 and in multiple media reports from Hong Kong during the same period.)

Construction of “093 project” nuclear attack submarines and the “094 project” strategic nuclear submarine, using Russian plans and technology, at Huludao (a port city in northeast Liaoning province) military shipbuilding plant. By the end of 2005, PLAN would have in its service at least two “093 project” and at least one “094 project” nuclear submarines. Reportedly, Russia had to make significant improvements in design and weapons of these submarines, in accordance with Chinese customers’ requirements.

Along with Russian contracts is the construction of a new generation of destroyers, frigates and conventional submarines at modernized shipbuilding plants in Dalian, Shanghai, Qingdao and Wuhan cities. An upgraded PLA could be capable pf establishing sea control around Taiwan in 2008.

Aso important is the fact that both the PLAAF and PLAN would be equipped, by 2008, with perfect military information technology systems, more precisely by C4ISR (command, control, computers, communication, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) systems, which would make the use of the listed weapon systems much more effective.

[snowsislander]

Like I said, I've yet to see a couch that comes with a "made in China" sticker.

I went over to the SEC EDGAR filings and looked at Havertys, a large furniture sales company. From the management discussion in their 2003 annual report (my emphasis added):

During much of 2003 our focus was to seek values with imported product offerings and to explore how we might better source and flow those goods. Our core furniture merchandise comprises approximately 85% of the furniture items, excluding bedding and accessories, which we carry in all of our stores. Additional products that are more regionally focused and items needed to merchandise our larger retail stores supplement the core furniture merchandise assortment. Of our core merchandise groups at December 31, 2002, imported products comprised approximately 37% and this increased to approximately 60% by the end of 2003 as new products were received and displayed in our showrooms. Wood products, or “case goods,” are generally imported, and so only 20% of our selected case goods at December 31, 2003 were produced domestically. Upholstered items are not as heavily imported, with the exception of our leather products, of which almost 100% were imported during 2003.The Havertys Collections lines are approximately 80% imported with virtually all case goods and leather items being imported. We believe for the selected imported items we purchase, we achieve substantial savings as compared to domestically produced similar products.

Here are some pictures of Havertys' offerings in leather couches, which as I read their SEC filing, are imported (mostly from China, though there is some movement of production to even cheaper Vietnam according to the most recent 10Q.)

[DarkWaters]

I have a question... Let's say china won... what the hell would they do with the US? Seriously? They going to walk down our streets and then what?

Seriously some one answer the question?

Keep us as a souvenir and a reminder to anyone who would stand in there way. Not to mention rape, pillage, and plunder which seems to be as old as humanity itself and unfortunately a time honored tradition especially in the East. If given the chance, the killing would be on an unprecedented scale in human history, move over Mao, Stalin, and Hitler. And What? You don't think they could not find people in this country that would help them in a heart beat or with a little, I don't know, say, compensation? You vastly underestimate the true depravity of people who have no heart or loyalty(or at least a sense of one). Not to mention we would make a very nice expansive piece of land for population relocation. Good land for farming, i.e. food, still rich in resource that would ensure an every growing expansion of socialism with Chinese characteristics as they like to put it, and not to mention we are a crown jewel to most. So many either hate us or love us or even both because of what we have obtained. Control that and you then command the prestige that goes along with that global reach that they seek. So things are a bit destroyed, I doubt even 50% of the country would be destroyed should they catch us completely off guard. That is 50% or more that they didn't have before not to mention it still would be a paradise compared to that rate hole they are responsible for keeping it the way it is. The idea we are on top of that food chain(or anyone else for that matter) really motivates people to contemplate drastic and inhuman things. If allowed to fester long enough, someone will eventually act on it in an all or nothing high stakes game of all out warfare. These people are materialist through and through. Spirituality, morals, decency, values, tradition and especially life means nothing to people who worship at the alter of death and power for the sake of power. Your thoughts along with others here are rooted in Western and frankly naive thought, not their Eastern way of thinking. Everyone should be careful not to confuse the two.

It has taken them 5 centuries to figure out that a flush toilet might be a good idea?

Considering a toilet has nothing to do with what has been mentioned with respect to China’s moves or what I stated above, it is thus not applicable to the Chinese intentions and long range plans, so what is your point? If anything not living the easy life gives an edge for survival during the not so good times. Personally, I don’t want to give up my good life but at the same time I am not so decadent as not to see that if things are allowed to continued without us protecting our stake, someone will inevitably try to take it despite what the outcome may be. The greater the risk, the greater the reward. Besides, how many toilets are here in our country? If they do kill a lot of people here and manage to keep the destruction to a minimum, then they can simply steal as many as they want. If they can’t so what, they probably already have the necessary equipment to make them and to repair of even up grade any machinery used to make them.

[Walkingfeather]

okay my point is, They take one step onto US soil and first off they will be looking like a swiss Cheese. Second, How could they take over america? Not likely. They have no forward operating base. I am not saying I want this but how does one take over lets say...... phoenix?

[ModelBreaker]

I am not too worried. The more china develops economically, the less they will be able to wage war even if they want to. Businessmen will begin to take over key party leadership positions. All of that economic lobbying will make it extremely difficult for China to act overly aggressively because it will hurt the economy. Capitalism and free trade = peace.

This was the accepted wisdom for two decades before world war 1.

[Quix]

THANKS.

Yes, I think it's useful a lot toward helping raise the consciousness of people smug in their ignorance and in their nationalist Western arrogance.

[TapTheSource]

I think we have more to worry about in terms of encirclement than a direct military attack. Anatoly Golitsyn said as much (and as you probably know, his predictions have proven incredibly accurate). Europe will probably fall with hardly a shot. Given Powell's recent remarks, Taiwan will probably be handed over in the same way the British abandoned Hong Kong. Latin America has a growing Communist presence, and Canada is full of Leftwing socialists (not to mention separatist Revolutionaries in Quebec), and, occording to my relatives, heavily penetrated by the Red Chinese. Odds are, we will simply be surrounded, and as Golitsyn predicted, we will withdraw into fortress America...unless, of course, the West finally wakes up and takes his advice...but I will save that for another thread.

[TapTheSource]

"Yes, I think it's useful a lot toward helping raise the consciousness of people smug in their ignorance"

It wont be long before even these people will have to snap out of their delusions of grandeur.

[risk]

Great thread.

[B4Ranch]

How much food is grown within Arizona?

Can you feed 5.5 million people with it?

What if the rail and highways are blocked to the entire state?

In 1948, the three western sectors of West Berlin, had a civilian population of about 2,500,000 people.

Getting the idea yet?

[FierceDraka]

It wouldn't surprise me in the least if our Japanese friends have a few high-tech aces hiden up their sleeves to spring on any Chinese aggressors.

[LibertarianInExile]

How much do you make working for Norinco?

[kalee]

I hate Wal Mart, dirty crowded aisles, shoddy merchandise.
The problem is that Wal MArt doesn't have an exclusive on Chinese goods or should I say "poors". They are everywhere. Reading labels, it's hard to find anything made in the USA these days.

[LibertarianInExile]

I would like to believe your optimistic assessment is right. But I'd rather see the CIA missing because it's too pessimistic and NOT because it's too optimistic. But I have to slam you for one statement:

"In 3,000 years China has NOOOO history of foreign conquest."

Ever heard of Tibet? Check a globe before you make such a ridiculous statement.

[JesseHousman]

They're nice.

They also manufacture all the inexpensive goods with which to meet our every need.

Most of us are especially aware of the fact that they execute Christians, but are forgiven because they make most of our Christmas decorations and religious items.

A new catalogue issued by the Chinese government lists fresh body parts for sale, recently harvested from victims of executions.

[LibertarianInExile]

They did that to demonstrate their 'status.' /sarcasm

Yeah, the ChiCom shills are out in force on this thread.

[LibertarianInExile]

Thank you for smacking down that Park worship. I don't understand that ridiculous Korean religion that says former dictators were all wonderful because they did x, when it is patently obvious that they were lowlifes--by Western standards. Maybe it's because some folks have no frame of reference culturally, having watched Clinton run the country here so long like his own cathouse, but jeez, Park was a ruthless dictator if ever there was one.

[Moonman62]

Lets say they succeed taking Taiwan - that could happen if there is no one else but USA/Japan/Australia to stand and shout?

Perhaps we should let them have Taiwan. They are having a difficult enough time with Honk Kong. Taiwan will be much more difficult to keep in line, thus making it easier for dissidents on the mainland as the Chicoms will be too occupied.

[LibertarianInExile]

You sure? The Chinese are the reds! :)

[hosepipe]

Our subs would sink Chinas fleet in about 30 minutes..
Their on foot then.. Unless they use planes.. then their burnt toast.. of course they could use trucks with lots of troops.. then they are fused glass..

Don't be rididulous..-Balky..

[spodefly]

How would a China-USA war effect footware prices at Wal-Mart?