Gregoire is up right now. A little over a week ago I created an excel spreadsheet that applied the same % of votes to the uncounted votes that each candidate already received for each county in Washington state. I have been tracking the % on a county by county basis. It has held (including King County) for a week.
The Prediction : ROSSI WINS BY 3566 or more votes. Don't throw in the towel just yet. The uncounted in the rural counties are small numbers but they all add to the total and Rossi has a landslide in the rural counties.
The thing with Washington is there are very few undecided voters. Next election the state GOP needs to spend some money on advertising to educate those who have been fooled into voting for the LP without all the facts.
I worked a spread sheet that has tracked the changes since Election Day and the model using the absentee ballots favors Rossi slightly more than the overall vote model. If, for logisitical reasons, the remaining 4,000 King County votes are skewed to the districts with 85% D votes, the model will not work. Two of these districts (as of last Friday) returned fewer than expected absentees with a statistical significance (outside one std deviation)
For what it is worth, here is, in order of votes I project should be gained for Rossi by county: (null votes and voided ballots are assumed to be spread evenly, not impacting one candidate disproportionately) I also show in a memo column the absentee vote margin to date to show that it is comparable to the overall margins.:
| Total | Memo: | |||
| Left to count | % R > D | Proj Ab vote margin for Rossi | Absentee margin | |
| Benton | 2,200 | 38% | 837 | 39% |
| Yakima | 2,500 | 30% | 753 | 35% |
| Skagit | 2,500 | 8% | 193 | 10% |
| Stevens | 600 | 27% | 159 | 31% |
| Chelan | 350 | 29% | 101 | 30% |
| Columbia | 285 | 34% | 97 | 55% |
| Franklin | 250 | 36% | 90 | 40% |
| Island | 850 | 8% | 68 | 8% |
| Kittitas | 300 | 22% | 65 | 22% |
| Whitman | 600 | 10% | 58 | 13% |
| Walla Walla | 100 | 28% | 28 | 28% |
| Grant | 50 | 37% | 19 | 44% |
| Lewis | 50 | 33% | 17 | 38% |
| Clark | 200 | 8% | 16 | 12% |
| Klickitat | 100 | 10% | 10 | 14% |
| Adams | 25 | 38% | 10 | 31% |
| Clallam | 100 | 7% | 7 | 10% |
| Pend Oreille | 50 | 13% | 7 | 12% |
| Lincoln | 20 | 33% | 7 | 35% |
| Douglas | 20 | 33% | 7 | 38% |
| Mason | 225 | 3% | 6 | 8% |
| Pierce | 106 | 4% | 4 | 7% |
| Spokane | 50 | 7% | 4 | 9% |
| Skamania | 50 | 6% | 3 | 8% |
| Kitsap | 200 | 1% | 3 | 4% |
| Snohomish | 100 | 2% | 2 | 5% |
| Grays Harbor | 300 | 1% | 2 | 3% |
| Ferry | 5 | 19% | 1 | 11% |
| Wahkiakum | 5 | 5% | 0 | -12% |
| Asotin | - | 16% | 0 | 24% |
| Garfield | - | 32% | 0 | 47% |
| Okanogan | - | 21% | 0 | 24% |
| Cowlitz | 50 | 0% | 0 | 7% |
| Pacific | 50 | -5% | -2 | 6% |
| Jefferson | 25 | -18% | -5 | -14% |
| San Juan | 150 | -22% | -34 | -19% |
| Whatcom | 3,200 | -2% | -64 | 0% |
| Thurston | 2,000 | -9% | -173 | -8% |
| King | 4,000 | -18% | -706 | -17% |
| Total | 21,666 | 1588 | ||