I worked a spread sheet that has tracked the changes since Election Day and the model using the absentee ballots favors Rossi slightly more than the overall vote model. If, for logisitical reasons, the remaining 4,000 King County votes are skewed to the districts with 85% D votes, the model will not work. Two of these districts (as of last Friday) returned fewer than expected absentees with a statistical significance (outside one std deviation)
For what it is worth, here is, in order of votes I project should be gained for Rossi by county: (null votes and voided ballots are assumed to be spread evenly, not impacting one candidate disproportionately) I also show in a memo column the absentee vote margin to date to show that it is comparable to the overall margins.:
| Total | Memo: | |||
| Left to count | % R > D | Proj Ab vote margin for Rossi | Absentee margin | |
| Benton | 2,200 | 38% | 837 | 39% |
| Yakima | 2,500 | 30% | 753 | 35% |
| Skagit | 2,500 | 8% | 193 | 10% |
| Stevens | 600 | 27% | 159 | 31% |
| Chelan | 350 | 29% | 101 | 30% |
| Columbia | 285 | 34% | 97 | 55% |
| Franklin | 250 | 36% | 90 | 40% |
| Island | 850 | 8% | 68 | 8% |
| Kittitas | 300 | 22% | 65 | 22% |
| Whitman | 600 | 10% | 58 | 13% |
| Walla Walla | 100 | 28% | 28 | 28% |
| Grant | 50 | 37% | 19 | 44% |
| Lewis | 50 | 33% | 17 | 38% |
| Clark | 200 | 8% | 16 | 12% |
| Klickitat | 100 | 10% | 10 | 14% |
| Adams | 25 | 38% | 10 | 31% |
| Clallam | 100 | 7% | 7 | 10% |
| Pend Oreille | 50 | 13% | 7 | 12% |
| Lincoln | 20 | 33% | 7 | 35% |
| Douglas | 20 | 33% | 7 | 38% |
| Mason | 225 | 3% | 6 | 8% |
| Pierce | 106 | 4% | 4 | 7% |
| Spokane | 50 | 7% | 4 | 9% |
| Skamania | 50 | 6% | 3 | 8% |
| Kitsap | 200 | 1% | 3 | 4% |
| Snohomish | 100 | 2% | 2 | 5% |
| Grays Harbor | 300 | 1% | 2 | 3% |
| Ferry | 5 | 19% | 1 | 11% |
| Wahkiakum | 5 | 5% | 0 | -12% |
| Asotin | - | 16% | 0 | 24% |
| Garfield | - | 32% | 0 | 47% |
| Okanogan | - | 21% | 0 | 24% |
| Cowlitz | 50 | 0% | 0 | 7% |
| Pacific | 50 | -5% | -2 | 6% |
| Jefferson | 25 | -18% | -5 | -14% |
| San Juan | 150 | -22% | -34 | -19% |
| Whatcom | 3,200 | -2% | -64 | 0% |
| Thurston | 2,000 | -9% | -173 | -8% |
| King | 4,000 | -18% | -706 | -17% |
| Total | 21,666 | 1588 | ||
I haven't checked your math but your total is less than I got applying a straight up count; I would post my results but I do not have the data here. I ran my projections every day taking into account the new total ballot counts and the new uncounted ballot counts and simply applying the percentage wins for each candidate. The numbers have suprised me on how stable the projected Rossi lead will be. He may even beat a mandatory recount.