Posted on 11/15/2004 5:59:36 PM PST by Northwesterner
current 51 Today 54/44 Tues. 50/41 5-day forecast
November 15, 2004 -- 5:38 p.m. PT
Governor's race: Still too close to call The state's new totals in the governor's race give Chris Gregoire a 324-vote lead over Dino Rossi. See the latest numbers...
(Excerpt) Read more at seattlepi.nwsource.com ...
Any knowledge out there of how many votes are left to count from counties other than King? If the pattern persists, Gregoire should get 2400 to Rossi's 1600 in King's county. That would put Gregoire up by about 800, plus her current lead of 158, for a total of 958 after King county results are supposedly final but before other counties are posted.
The thing with Washington is there are very few undecided voters. Next election the state GOP needs to spend some money on advertising to educate those who have been fooled into voting for the LP without all the facts.
The county by county numbers are here:
http://vote.wa.gov/general/status.aspx
The Republicab party in WA has been dominated by RINO's for a long time. They don't know how to win.
This state could easily be flipped; just need to energize the conservative vote. The Dem machine here is entrenched but their flanks are vulnerable.
I'll take a Slade Gorton any day over a Maria Cantwell, RINO or not.
True; LOL. My point is they are afraid to attack the left on their records; they play defense. The last couple of campains were limp. Nethercutt should have trounced Murray but he pulled his punches after releasing the OBL speech.
Gordon should have steam-rolled Cant(vote)well; but he was too much of a gentleman.
Rossi winning is as important for Washington as Bush winning is for America
I Agree. A Rossi win is very important in setting the tone. As it stands (corrupt) liberals have been in control for decades a Rossi win will set the stage for a more balanced and fair Washington State government, leading the way for smaller government to follow ( I can only hope)
AMEN!
"Well here's an interesting surprise. King County, which claimed earlier to have 11,000 uncounted ballots, today reported 15,000 votes and claims there's another 4,000 ballots remaining."
They must have called in the vote-counting experts from Cook County, Illinois. Wonder if they are voting in alphabetical order yet. Anybody check the local cemetaries?
Republican Rossi projected to win by 1383 votes. However I think a reasonable margin of error on how the remaining votes will turn out is plus or minus 2000 votes. So it's looking like this one is going down to the wire.
County DEM REP LIB Counted LeftToCount Proj. D Proj. R
Adams 1513 3437 78 5172 25 1520.313418 3453.613496
Asotin 3514 4889 192 8928 0 3514 4889
Benton 19276 43616 1065 65662 2200 19921.84082 45077.35055
Chelan 9959 18261 511 29296 350 10077.98041 18479.1646
Clallam 16171 18767 913 36929 100 16214.78943 18817.81914
Clark 72718 85807 4120 171987 200 72802.56221 85906.78312
Columbia 619 1271 32 1984 285 707.9188508 1453.578125
Cowlitz 20165 20036 1088 42664 50 20188.63234 20059.48116
Douglas 4356 8657 218 13467 20 4362.469147 8669.856612
Ferry 1268 1894 118 3367 5 1269.882982 1896.812593
Franklin 4833 10395 217 15997 250 4908.529787 10557.45233
Garfield 424 839 24 1326 0 424 839
Grant 7773 17314 530 26110 50 7787.885101 17347.15588
Grays Harbor 16276 16507 670 34052 300 16419.39246 16652.42758
Island 16514 19472 783 37946 850 16883.91778 19908.17773
Jefferson 10570 7262 462 18634 25 10584.18107 7271.742943
King 502537 348982 18756 893211 4000 504787.4739 350544.82
Kitsap 56036 57602 3092 119205 200 56130.01619 57698.6436
Kittitas 5903 9212 253 15635 300 6016.26511 9388.757275
Klickitat 3848 4691 252 9120 100 3890.192982 4742.436404
Lewis 10205 20740 752 32773 50 10220.56922 20771.6419
Lincoln 1849 3681 100 5890 20 1855.278438 3693.499151
Mason 11691 12370 668 25580 225 11793.83327 12478.80571
Okanogan 6099 9448 465 16610 0 6099 9448
Pacific 5185 4710 294 10565 50 5209.538571 4732.290582
Pend Oreille 2547 3344 178 6219 50 2567.477569 3370.885351
Pierce 144825 157334 7214 316734 106 144873.468 157386.6543
San Juan 5787 3605 309 9968 150 5874.083668 3659.248596
Skagit 20546 24075 1055 46457 2500 21651.64608 25370.55288
Skamania 2224 2508 176 5162 50 2245.542038 2532.29291
Snohomish 138837 145319 6833 296712 100 138883.7918 145367.9764
Spokane 90404 105370 3871 203752 50 90426.18481 105395.8574
Stevens 6796 11895 544 19929 600 7000.606353 12253.12133
Thurston 57526 48168 2468 110851 2000 58563.89772 49037.05847
Wahkiakum 991 1093 60 2245 5 993.2071269 1095.434298
Walla Walla 7808 14020 366 22860 100 7842.155731 14081.32983
Whatcom 42363 40652 2030 88117 3200 43901.42732 42128.29175
Whitman 7236 8842 405 16997 600 7491.433312 9154.125669
Yakima 23679 44628 1277 70909 2500 24513.83761 46201.42509
TOTAL 1360871 1360713 62439 2859022 21666 1370419.223 1371812.565
I worked a spread sheet that has tracked the changes since Election Day and the model using the absentee ballots favors Rossi slightly more than the overall vote model. If, for logisitical reasons, the remaining 4,000 King County votes are skewed to the districts with 85% D votes, the model will not work. Two of these districts (as of last Friday) returned fewer than expected absentees with a statistical significance (outside one std deviation)
For what it is worth, here is, in order of votes I project should be gained for Rossi by county: (null votes and voided ballots are assumed to be spread evenly, not impacting one candidate disproportionately) I also show in a memo column the absentee vote margin to date to show that it is comparable to the overall margins.:
| Total | Memo: | |||
| Left to count | % R > D | Proj Ab vote margin for Rossi | Absentee margin | |
| Benton | 2,200 | 38% | 837 | 39% |
| Yakima | 2,500 | 30% | 753 | 35% |
| Skagit | 2,500 | 8% | 193 | 10% |
| Stevens | 600 | 27% | 159 | 31% |
| Chelan | 350 | 29% | 101 | 30% |
| Columbia | 285 | 34% | 97 | 55% |
| Franklin | 250 | 36% | 90 | 40% |
| Island | 850 | 8% | 68 | 8% |
| Kittitas | 300 | 22% | 65 | 22% |
| Whitman | 600 | 10% | 58 | 13% |
| Walla Walla | 100 | 28% | 28 | 28% |
| Grant | 50 | 37% | 19 | 44% |
| Lewis | 50 | 33% | 17 | 38% |
| Clark | 200 | 8% | 16 | 12% |
| Klickitat | 100 | 10% | 10 | 14% |
| Adams | 25 | 38% | 10 | 31% |
| Clallam | 100 | 7% | 7 | 10% |
| Pend Oreille | 50 | 13% | 7 | 12% |
| Lincoln | 20 | 33% | 7 | 35% |
| Douglas | 20 | 33% | 7 | 38% |
| Mason | 225 | 3% | 6 | 8% |
| Pierce | 106 | 4% | 4 | 7% |
| Spokane | 50 | 7% | 4 | 9% |
| Skamania | 50 | 6% | 3 | 8% |
| Kitsap | 200 | 1% | 3 | 4% |
| Snohomish | 100 | 2% | 2 | 5% |
| Grays Harbor | 300 | 1% | 2 | 3% |
| Ferry | 5 | 19% | 1 | 11% |
| Wahkiakum | 5 | 5% | 0 | -12% |
| Asotin | - | 16% | 0 | 24% |
| Garfield | - | 32% | 0 | 47% |
| Okanogan | - | 21% | 0 | 24% |
| Cowlitz | 50 | 0% | 0 | 7% |
| Pacific | 50 | -5% | -2 | 6% |
| Jefferson | 25 | -18% | -5 | -14% |
| San Juan | 150 | -22% | -34 | -19% |
| Whatcom | 3,200 | -2% | -64 | 0% |
| Thurston | 2,000 | -9% | -173 | -8% |
| King | 4,000 | -18% | -706 | -17% |
| Total | 21,666 | 1588 | ||
They're still counting absentee ballots coming in (but I agree that King County is going to see how many Gregoire needs to win)- from the WA SOS Web site:
Many mail-in and absentee ballots will not be received and counted until several days after the election. As a consequence, the figures in the "Turnout to Date" column will continue to increase until November 17 (the deadline for counties to certify their results).
Figures in the "Approx Ballots Left to Count" column are estimates only, as provided by county election departments.
These numbers include estimated ballots on hand and estimated ballots to be received by mail prior to the 11/17/2004 certification deadline.
GO ROSSI - We REALLY need you!!
IF these are the remaining "4,000" ballots to be counted, instead of a additional deficit for Rossi of 700-800, we are looking at 1,400-1,500. There are still enough uncounted in other counties to offset that possibility, but the margin will be less than 1,000.
If anyone wants to see the data on a legislative level to help give me a better sense of these numbers (especially if you have local knowledge) email me privately, rather than take up the bandwith in the forum.
I haven't checked your math but your total is less than I got applying a straight up count; I would post my results but I do not have the data here. I ran my projections every day taking into account the new total ballot counts and the new uncounted ballot counts and simply applying the percentage wins for each candidate. The numbers have suprised me on how stable the projected Rossi lead will be. He may even beat a mandatory recount.
That is the key to the whole deal right there. King has until Wed to manufacture, postmark, and deliver any number necessary to win.
"Any number you can think of, I can double."
You aren't going to believe what the King County Dems are pulling tonight. They "found" more ballots. Thousands more.
How about that?
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