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The Next Five Big NASA Failures
Space Daily ^ | November 15, 2004 | Jeffrey Bell

Posted on 11/15/2004 8:56:22 AM PST by cogitator

Liberally excerpted due to length; I recommend clicking the article link and reading the whole dismal thing.

"VSE" stands for "Vision for Space Exploration".

Telling excerpts:

International Space Station: "There is no plan to handle NASA's share of the huge up-cargo and down-cargo demands of the finished ISS, except for a thin wedge labled "ISS transportation" in the famous VSE budget chart. There is no plan for a US cargo vehicle.

There is no initiative to do away with the Iran Non-Proliferation Act which forbids NASA to purchase Progress launches from Russia. There is no plan to purchase ATV cargo flights from Europe, or to purchase HTV flights from Japan.

Even worse, there is no plan for crew exchange without Shuttle. The "finished" ISS will require that a total of 12 crewpersons be launched and landed each year. NASA is responsible for the non-Russian share of this.

The INPA forbids the purchase of Soyuz flights; Europe and Japan have no manned vehicles to purchase; and the Chinese Shenzhou program is withering away with an apparent flight rate of less than 0.5/yr.

The announced US policy for the future of ISS amounts to this: NASA will finish assembling the ISS at vast further expense in American money (and possibly dead American astronauts), then dump the whole white elephant on the international partners, who will be totally unable to meet its crew exchange and "junk exchange" needs.

This plan is so stupid that even Congressmen are objecting to it. For some months there has been a series of increasingly less polite requests from Congress that NASA present some kind of plan for adequate logistical support of the finished ISS. But no plan has been produced - much less a budget.

.........

Hubble Robot Repair Mission: "For $2200M, one could build several more Hubbles and launch them on expendable boosters. It just doesn't make any sense to develop a whole new space robot technology for this one repair job. There is no chance that Congress will pony up this amount of money to save Hubble. Anybody working on this mission is wasting their time."

Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter:: "Of course, JIMO is the mission which was used to justify the hugely expensive Prometheus program for improved nuclear power in space.

But that was back in the pre-VSE environment when it was officially forbidden for NASA to work on or even plan for any post-ISS manned programs. Clearly, the Prometheus 100kw space reactor plant is far more necessary as an auxiliary power source for manned ships and bases than it is as propulsion power for unmanned probes."

Mars Sample Return: "For a while it seemed that Earth was only getting young volcanic Mars rocks, probably from the Tharsis region. But then ALH 84001 was belatedly recognised as a chunk of Mars' ancient highland crust.

The bogus controversy over "fossils" in this meteorite has tended to overshadow the large amount of real science that was extracted from it.

The most important programmatic implication of ALH 84001 was that if we collected enough Mars meteorites, we might get samples of most of the significant geological units on Mars.

Instead of spending billions on MSR, it might be more cost-effective to expand the existing collection program in Antartica, or offer big cash prizes to rockhounds for genuine Mars rocks in their collections.

Concluding paragraphs: "This is a pretty scary list of disasters. The combined impact of these failures and cancellations in the next year or so could be disastrous, on top of the Columbia, OSP, and Genesis fiascos. Possibly NASA needs an "Associate Administrator for Early Warning".

His job would be akin to that of the old court jester - to speak the unspeakable truths that loyal courtiers dare not mention, early enough that these doomed projects could be quietly put out of their misery before they generate too much bad publicity.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Government; Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS: boondoggle; failure; funding; missions; nasa; ooops; science; space; waste
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To: Frank_Discussion

I didn't even think about that -- there is a lead article at Space Daily about the high-speed scramjet test. NASA success should be noted as such.


21 posted on 11/15/2004 9:15:17 AM PST by cogitator
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To: Prime Choice

"Was done in the Mercury and Gemini programs."

When did they re-launch a Mercury or Gemini cap in two weeks turnaround? Re-launch either AT ALL, for that matter? How about two-week turnarounds for Shuttle? Not a possibility.

For a relative pittance, Rutan is doing this now. Actually, his turnaround was LESS than two weeks.


22 posted on 11/15/2004 9:15:23 AM PST by Frank_Discussion (May the wings of Liberty never lose a feather!)
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To: cogitator

NASA has to get out of these old programs and put the resources to work on the new stuff. The Hubble robot mission is interesting if it furthers space robot design, which is in line with NASA's new program. Otherwise, splash it.


23 posted on 11/15/2004 9:17:01 AM PST by RightWhale (Destroy the dark; restore the light)
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To: biblewonk

NASA ping.

Let Dick Rutan do it.


24 posted on 11/15/2004 9:17:47 AM PST by newgeezer (Just my opinion, of course. Your mileage may vary. You have the right to be wrong.)
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To: RightWhale
Las Vegas might get his hotel in space eventually...

I don't think Las Vegas's major clientele could survive it. Zero G is hell on the young and healthy. On the aged, all bets are off. Calcium leaves the bones at ten times the rate of osteoporosis (which also increases the likelihood and severity of kidney stones), bodily fluids migrate upward, causing facial swelling, sinus congestion, inner ear congestion (which causes vertigo, disorientation, motion sickness and -- in many cases -- truly spectacular puking episodes).

25 posted on 11/15/2004 9:18:28 AM PST by Prime Choice (STFU ACLU.)
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To: cogitator
It just doesn't make any sense to develop a whole new space robot technology for this one repair job.

Sorry to take exception, but doesn't developing a whole new technology have benefits beyond the initial purpose? Sometimes having a tangible goal like the Hubble repair is a good thing. I sense some short-sightedness in the author's argument given the statement above.

26 posted on 11/15/2004 9:20:47 AM PST by NonValueAdded ("We are in the process of allowing them to self-actualise" LtC. Rainey, Fallujah, 11/04)
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To: Prime Choice

All the better to entertain dinner guests when you get back.


27 posted on 11/15/2004 9:21:04 AM PST by RightWhale (Destroy the dark; restore the light)
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To: Frank_Discussion
And are you under the impression that Rutan did all that without borrowing the knowledge and experience invented and developed by NASA? Got news for you, sunshine.

You're wow'd by suborbital flights. Me, I've seen it all before.

I'll be impressed when the private sector makes it to the moon. Until then, the private sector's stuff is the same old steak with a different sizzle.

28 posted on 11/15/2004 9:21:25 AM PST by Prime Choice (STFU ACLU.)
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To: Prime Choice
I won't hold my breath for hot dog stands on the moon.

Considering the moon's atmosphere (or lack of), you'd have to if there were :)

29 posted on 11/15/2004 9:30:16 AM PST by Alex Murphy (Psalm 73)
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To: Carry_Okie
If we've already been to the moon in the 60's... why is it 'gonna take 15 years to do it again?!

I'd just have NASA focus on this an forget the other 'geek-projects'.

30 posted on 11/15/2004 9:36:23 AM PST by johnny7 (“We blowed 'em up real good!” -John Candy & Joe Flaherty, SCTV)
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To: RightWhale
The Hubble robot mission is interesting if it furthers space robot design, which is in line with NASA's new program.

It might do that.

Robot helps NASA refocus on Hubble

"It is by no means a sure thing. Yet largely because of the Canadian robot named "Dextre," NASA has gone in less than a year from virtually writing off the Hubble to embracing a mission that will cost between $1 billion and $1.6 billion and approach in complexity the hardest jobs the agency has ever undertaken."

Which doesn't mean I think it's a good idea, due to the cost -- but they may be able to pull it off for that cost.

31 posted on 11/15/2004 9:38:21 AM PST by cogitator
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To: cogitator


Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies

Article I
The exploration and use of outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, shall be carried out for the benefit and in the interests of all countries, irrespective of their degree of economic or scientific development, and shall be the province of all mankind.

Article III
States Parties to the Treaty shall carry on activities in the exploration and use of outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, in accordance with international law, including the Charter of the United Nations, in the interest of maintaining international peace and security and promoting international co-operation and understanding.

Article V
States Parties to the Treaty shall immediately inform the other States Parties to the Treaty or the Secretary-General of the United Nations of any phenomena they discover in outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, which could constitute a danger to the life or health of astronauts.

Article XII
All stations, installations, equipment and space vehicles on the moon and other celestial bodies shall be open to representatives of other States Parties to the Treaty on a basis of reciprocity. Such representatives shall give reasonable advance notice of a projected visit, in order that appropriate consultations may be held and that maximum precautions may betaken to assure safety and to avoid interference with normal operations in the facility to be visited.

http://www.oosa.unvienna.org/SpaceLaw/outersptxt.htm
32 posted on 11/15/2004 9:42:06 AM PST by hedgetrimmer
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To: Prime Choice

"And are you under the impression that Rutan did all that without borrowing the knowledge and experience invented and developed by NASA?"

No. But they've capitalized on it well. And I'm glad NASA developed some of what Rutan needed to put it all together. The fact squarely remains that NASA hasn't and can't do what Rutan can right now, but the VSE will remedy that.

If you have some idea I don't like NASA, you've completely misread me. I believe outside of our military, it's our best-spent funding item.

"Got news for you, sunshine."

How's the shoulder? That 50 pound chip has gotta hurt. Back the h*ll off and think before you post.

"I'll be impressed when the private sector makes it to the moon. Until then, the private sector's stuff is the same old steak with a different sizzle."

Nope. Rutan and his folks are doing something that NO ONE and NO ORGANIZATION has done before by being able to have a truly reusable quick-turnaround capability. It is a big, big step in the right direction.

And if NASA had done it, I'd be just as pleased and pumped about it.


33 posted on 11/15/2004 9:43:03 AM PST by Frank_Discussion (May the wings of Liberty never lose a feather!)
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To: cogitator
Which doesn't mean I think it's a good idea, due to the cost -- but they may be able to pull it off for that cost.

How about, it might not be a good idea investing in a Canadian company with US tax dollars?

34 posted on 11/15/2004 9:47:13 AM PST by Carry_Okie (There are people in power who are truly evil.)
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To: Prime Choice

Mercury was suborbital, Gemini wasn't reusable.


35 posted on 11/15/2004 9:50:22 AM PST by Brett66 (W1 W1 W1 W1 W1 W1 W1 W1)
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To: cogitator; Poohbah; section9; veronica

Burt Rutan for NASA Administrator - time to transform NASA.


36 posted on 11/15/2004 9:51:09 AM PST by hchutch (A pro-artificial turf, pro-designated hitter baseball fan.)
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To: Prime Choice
I'll be impressed when the private sector makes it to the moon. Until then, the private sector's stuff is the same old steak with a different sizzle.

Re-entry without heat shielding was a significant achievement.

37 posted on 11/15/2004 9:52:29 AM PST by Carry_Okie (There are people in power who are really stupid.)
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To: newgeezer

What a waste of perfectly good windmill money.


38 posted on 11/15/2004 9:54:33 AM PST by biblewonk (Neither was the man created for woman but the woman for the man.)
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To: hchutch
Burt Rutan for NASA Administrator - time to transform NASA.

1. He doesn't want the pay cut.

2. Much of NASA's problems are part and parcel of being a government agency. Burt taking charge wouldn't change that.

39 posted on 11/15/2004 9:55:17 AM PST by Poohbah (Crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of their women!)
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To: Carry_Okie
Re-entry without heat shielding was a significant achievement.

Is that the Rutan flight you're thinking of? What was the total heat load they were dissipating on that one? Quite a jump in managing heat load going from a suborbital burp to full-fledged orbit, much less escape velocity.

40 posted on 11/15/2004 10:02:01 AM PST by chimera
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