Is Zogby Nailed to the Perch? He waits until 5:00 P.M. on Election Day to make his “2004 Predictions,” and still gets it all wrong!
Another case of Credibility Crash.
Last time I ever have anything todo with a Zogby poll.
Zogby...don't quit your day job.
Oops, I mean...um...sorry. Have a nice day.
Zogby this morning: "JFK actually had the 311 electoral votes before he lost them."
Actually, Gallup's FINAL poll was not that bad. It is ONLY their manual
TWEAKING that got them into trouble. They ALLOCATED 90% of the undecided
to Kerry, based on a very small history of past elections.
IF they had allocated them per Pat Caddell and others who contend that
in Presidential Elections, that Undecideds break 60/40 for the INCUMBENT
then Gallup would have been VERY VERY accurate!
Gallup's FINAL poll
Likely voters (unallocated)
49 Bush
47 Kerry
1 Nader
3 Undecided
Final Gallup estimate (with undecided vote allocated) [90% to Kerry]
49 Bush
49 Kerry
2 Nader
--
How Gallup SHOULD have allocated the undecideds - 60/40 to the INCUMBENT
51 Bush
48 Kerry
1 Nader
--
So much for his "Special Sauce."
"Hey... I'm a freaking tool, all right? What else did you really expect from me, for pete's sake...?" :)
ZOGBY BEAT DOWN BUMP!
Which begs the question: how can something so "accurate" be so completely and utterly WRONG?
Idiot.
John Zogby-I was right before I was wrong in 2004
Being within the margin of error in a few states is one thing, but being on the wrong side of the margin each time is another.
he's on the way to Arafats hospital bed
http://www.nypost.com/news/nationalnews/33357.htm
SWERVY SURVEYS
November 4, 2004 -- The stunning results of the presidential race have left most professional pollsters beaming with pride about getting it right — but a few were wiping egg from their faces and offering mea culpas.
Of 10 major polling institutes and news networks that surveyed voters through Monday night, seven showed President Bush on top in their last surveys before votes were cast — although none nailed down his precise margin of victory.
Three polls came close to capturing the exact popular vote of 51.1 percent for Bush and 47.7 percent for Sen. John Kerry.
The Rasmussen polling outfit had it 50.2 percent for Bush and 48 percent for Kerry; TIPP had Bush grabbing 50.1 percent and Kerry with 48 percent; and Battleground had it 50 to 46 in favor of Bush.
"You can't expect in a close race like this to be able to detect a winner with precision, although some pollsters will claim that they did," said University of Michigan election-poll expert Michael Traugott.
"What you can expect is for them to tell you a race is too close to call, and that's what they did."
All of the final polls were within the margin of error. But none of the pollsters, even those who showed Kerry ahead, went as far as Zogby International did in predicting a runaway victory for Kerry.
In a last-ditch effort for bragging rights, John Zogby called the election for Kerry at 5 p.m. before polls closed on Election Day, announcing on his Web site that the Demo- cratic nominee would win 311 electoral votes.
That call even went against Zogby's final poll, which showed Bush narrowly winning the popular vote — and left the pollster with his tail between his legs.
"I thought we captured a trend, but apparently that result didn't materialize," Zogby wrote on his Web site yesterday.
Most final polls proved accurate even in the key battleground states of Ohio and Florida, both won by Bush.
Only Gallup showed a Kerry victory in both states, although several surveys had the Democrat winning in Florida.
On another front, yesterday's exit polls were way off the mark, a poor showing for the new organization that replaced the exit-poll company from 2000, Voter News Services, after the debacle of four years ago.
The National Election Pool issued a statement blaming the misleading projections on leaks to overeager Internet news hounds.
"We were disappointed that information from the early waves of the exit polling found its way on to the Internet," the statement said. "Information that is contained in the early waves is a preliminary snapshot and can often be unreliable."
http://www.nypost.com/news/nationalnews/33357.htm
SWERVY SURVEYS
November 4, 2004 -- The stunning results of the presidential race have left most professional pollsters beaming with pride about getting it right — but a few were wiping egg from their faces and offering mea culpas.
Of 10 major polling institutes and news networks that surveyed voters through Monday night, seven showed President Bush on top in their last surveys before votes were cast — although none nailed down his precise margin of victory.
Three polls came close to capturing the exact popular vote of 51.1 percent for Bush and 47.7 percent for Sen. John Kerry.
The Rasmussen polling outfit had it 50.2 percent for Bush and 48 percent for Kerry; TIPP had Bush grabbing 50.1 percent and Kerry with 48 percent; and Battleground had it 50 to 46 in favor of Bush.
"You can't expect in a close race like this to be able to detect a winner with precision, although some pollsters will claim that they did," said University of Michigan election-poll expert Michael Traugott.
"What you can expect is for them to tell you a race is too close to call, and that's what they did."
All of the final polls were within the margin of error. But none of the pollsters, even those who showed Kerry ahead, went as far as Zogby International did in predicting a runaway victory for Kerry.
In a last-ditch effort for bragging rights, John Zogby called the election for Kerry at 5 p.m. before polls closed on Election Day, announcing on his Web site that the Demo- cratic nominee would win 311 electoral votes.
That call even went against Zogby's final poll, which showed Bush narrowly winning the popular vote — and left the pollster with his tail between his legs.
"I thought we captured a trend, but apparently that result didn't materialize," Zogby wrote on his Web site yesterday.
Most final polls proved accurate even in the key battleground states of Ohio and Florida, both won by Bush.
Only Gallup showed a Kerry victory in both states, although several surveys had the Democrat winning in Florida.
On another front, yesterday's exit polls were way off the mark, a poor showing for the new organization that replaced the exit-poll company from 2000, Voter News Services, after the debacle of four years ago.
The National Election Pool issued a statement blaming the misleading projections on leaks to overeager Internet news hounds.
"We were disappointed that information from the early waves of the exit polling found its way on to the Internet," the statement said. "Information that is contained in the early waves is a preliminary snapshot and can often be unreliable."