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Terrorism Summary 11/04/04

Yes there has been more than the Presidental election going on out there. The Israeli-Palestinan issue is becoming unstable due to the impending death of Arafat. Let me know if you want on or off the Ping list.

Current National Homeland Defense threat level is YELLOW
11/04/04 Local Threat Level ORANGE for NYC, N. New Jersey, D.C No Change since 8/1/04

1. Attack threat windows
11/04/04 Primary Window: We are now 2 days past election day. Friday Nov 5 is the last day of this current window. If another OBL tape appears this may be extended by another week.

10/23/04 Secondary windows: Nov 24 - Jan 1 - Thanksgiving / Christmas Holiday season.
January 20, 2005 - Presidential inauguration
Feb. 6 Super Bowl in Jacksonville, Fla.

2. Attack Indicators
11/04/04 In a developing story TrackingTerrorism.com has reported the Al-Jazeera has another OBL tape. The tape is said to be currently leaked online on a few remote and highly secret Al-Qaeda Websites. Militants are already praising its release, making comments such as "Soon the American People will see the edited version".

Based upon the threats stated in the previous two AQ videos, this tape could be very important signal for an additional attack. Al-Jazeera is reportedly holding the video back until Arafat really assumes room temperature.
Jihadi talk has discussed possible dates for an attack, most recently was Nov 2, election day. As this kind of talk continues, and these dates pass without actions, OBL continues to lose face, potentially forcing an attack when they really aren’t ready.

3. Current Terrorist Operations

Al-Qa'ida
11/03/04 Where in the world is Osama bin Laden? Some speculation is that he is holed up in eastern Pakistan, in the northern regions of the country's portion of Kashmir, with even the possibility that he might have already ventured into Indian territory. India is reportedly on the alert and looking for him.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/FK03Df05.html

Other sources continue to insist that he is still in the rugged Afghanistian-Pakistian border region.

11/2/04 In a follow-up evaluation of the OBL tape released last Friday, these additional observations were noted at MEMRI> "The tape tells George Bush: 'Leave us alone, and we will leave you alone.' It is obvious, from both the language and the body language, that this is a speech of a man who is capitulating, withdrawing, or trying to 'change his spots' from a Jihad fighter to a politician. This tape resembles the announcements of commercial companies which are going out of business.

Iraq
11/4/04 Air strikes intensify as the US military prepares for an all-out assault on Fallujah.

11/2/04 Iraqi police arrested two operatives of Jordanian terror mastermind Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and seized weapons and ammunition, a police commander said on Tuesday. He confessed to working for al-Zarqawi's group and gave the name of the second suspect who was arrested in a raid on Monday night about 100km north of Baqouba. The report said police seized weapons, ammunition and rocket launchers in the Monday raid.
http://www.news24.com/News24/World/Iraq/0,,2-10-1460_1614858,00.html

Spain
11/04/04 A Spanish judge investigating suspected Islamic militants has drawn links between the September 11 attacks, the Madrid train bombings and a plot to blow up the High Court.
He says suspects in the March 11 railway blasts, which killed 191 people, helped train and indoctrinate suspects in a purported plot to drive a 500 kilogram suicide truck bomb into the court.
The judge, Baltasar Garzon, has also connected these two groups with members of a suspected Al Qaeda cell arrested in Spain. He says those members aided the September 11, 2001, attacks in the United States.
Mr Garzon outlined the links in court documents that remanded eight more suspects to prison in the alleged plot by the "Martyrs for Morocco" group to blow up the High Court and then attack other landmarks including Real Madrid's football stadium.
He alleges Mustapha Maimouni - under arrest in Morocco and linked to the 2003 Casablanca attacks that killed 12 suicide bombers and 33 others - is the most recent "emir" or spiritual leader of the cell.

Afghanistan
11/04/04 Taliban terrorists continue to threaten the lives of kidnapped several UN elections workers if Coalition forces do not leave the country.

Israel
11/4/04 Arafat is sunk in coma in critical condition and is on life support. His condition is so serious that a 'death watch' has essentially begun. Israel has placed its military on alert in the event his death results in violence.

11/2/04 Yasser Arafat's grip on power appeared to be slipping on Sunday after his subordinates assumed control of the major Palestinian organizations at the weekend and some politicians predicted that his domination was at an end.

11/2/04 Iranian money, funneled through Hezbollah, has been partially financing recent Palestinian suicide bombings, possibly including yesterday's suicide attack, Israeli security sources tell WorldNetDaily.

11/1/04 Three people - two women and one man - all in their 20s - were killed and more than 30 were wounded - five seriously - when a Palestinian suicide bomber blew up at a dairy deli in the busy Carmel Market in central Tel Aviv just after 11:20am on Monday, November 1.
The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine claimed responsibility for the attack, identifying the bomber as 18 year-old Amar Alfar from the Askar refugee camp in Nablus.

Israeli forces bulldozed the home that he resided in the following day.

Yemen
11/04/04 Yemeni intelligence captured a leading member of the al-Qaida network in Yemen identified as Y. Harazi and captured last September in a suburb of Sanaa following months of searches and monitoring. He is a leading activist in the so-called al-Qaida cell in Yemen, which was completely dismantled by the security agencies that captured or eliminated its members over the past few years.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20041104-071111-8288r.htm

United Arab Emirates
11/2/04 The veteran ruler of the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan al-Nahyan of Abu Dhabi, has died. An announcement on Abu Dhabi television said the 86-year-old sheikh had died on Tuesday evening. The ruler of the emirate of Dubai, Sheikh Maktoum bin Rashid, will act as president of the seven emirate group until a new overall ruler is chosen. Sheikh Zayed had been president of the UAE since its birth in 1971. He was known to be in poor health.

Saudi Arabia
11/2/04 Al-Qaida's Committee in the Arabian Peninsula has allegedly named a new commander, Saud bin Hamoud al-Otaibi, replacing former top leader Saleh al-Aoofi. The group has also applauded Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's recent decision to formally join Al-Qaida .

England
11/04/04 Highly skilled and organised extremist groups have laid detailed plans to carry out attacks in Britain, the country's top anti-terrorism policeman said on Thursday.
Sources did not say what the planned attacks consisted of, or their targets, but said key infrastructure could be at risk, including some of Britain's key power and energy installations.

United States
11/04/04 More than 700 people were arrested on immigration violations and thousands more subjected to FBI interviews in an intense government effort to avert a terrorist attack aimed at disrupting the election. As with past unrealized al-Qaida threats, law enforcement officials said Thursday they don't know for sure whether any of those arrests or interviews foiled an attack.

11/2/04 A man who claimed to be a French citizen videotaping Southland landmarks as a hobby was stopped by the California Highway Patrol near Los Angeles International Airport and questioned, it was reported Tuesday. According to one report, the man was videotaping the Sepulveda Tunnel beneath a runway at LAX on Friday night when he was detained. He also had videotaped airplanes landing at the airfield, and various public buildings in the area. The FBI was notified, and investigators determined that the man had broken no laws and he was not arrested, according to a report.
According to a report, authorities searched the man's room at the Holiday Inn on Century Boulevard near LAX and found two laptop computers, three Palm Pilots and possible other videotapes.
The man, who also had circled Southland landmarks on maps, checked out and left the country, it was reported.

4. Attack method.
11/04/04 No real change in the preferred method of choice of AQ which are bombs - the bigger the better. With the exception of 9/11, car/truck bombs have been widely used. There are special concerns regarding the use by terrorists of the following vehicles:

1. Uhaul type cargo trucks.
2. Gasoline / Propane supply trucks.
3. Emergency vehicles (ambulances, police cars, fire trucks)

11/1/04 (Held over for an additional summary) The Terrorist Threat Integration Center, a joint FBI-CIA intelligence-gathering organization, has drawn up possible attack scenarios for officials to look out for - based on information gathered from communication intercepts and interviews with al Qaeda detainees.
The most extreme of those scenarios includes a multi-pronged biological- and chemical-weapons attack; more airline hijackings; assaults on financial institutions with the use of car and truck bombs and an attack similar to the Madrid subway bombing in march.
Many believe that the ringleader of any possible attack is Adnan Shukriagumah, a 28-year-old Saudi-born Guyanese man who grew up in South Florida.
A $5 million reward has been offered for Shukriagumah, who has bomb- making skills, is trained to fly commercial jets and has been linked to Sept. 11 ringleader, Mohamed Atta.
Intelligence reports say Shukriagumah has hooked up with the El Salvadorian street gang, MS-13, which is known to be very adept at smuggling drugs and people into the United States.
http://www.nypost.com/news/nationalnews/33063.htm

5. Personnel
11/04/04 Nothing new to report.

6. Significant meetings canceled:
11/04/04 No new cancellations.

7. Security has been heightened in specific cities
11/04/04 No significant change since 8/11/04. NYC, N. NJ and D.C. are still at threat level ORANGE and DHS continues to review the threat towards these potential targets daily. Specifically identified targets include the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in D.C.; Prudential Financial in Northern New Jersey; and Citigroup buildings and the New York Stock Exchange in New York. I don't look for any change in the status of these locations until after the inauguration at the earliest.

GENERAL: Ongoing work to upgrade security at sea ports and airports.

8. Military operations.
11/04/04 Carrier Battle Groups
Deployed
CV-67 Kennedy 25 Jul 2004 - Persian Gulf
CVN-75 Truman 01 Nov 2004 - Mediterranean Sea
CVN-72 Lincoln 19 Oct 2004 - Pacific Ocean
Surge Ready
CVN-70 Vinson 02 Oct 2004
Basic Training
CVN-68 Nimitz 29 Oct 2004 - Pacific Ocean
CV-63 Kitty Hawk entering Ship's Restricted Availability (SRA) maintenance period following its deployment The other carriers are in post deployment and / or maintenance.

11/04/04 F-117s are still reported to be deployed in S. Korea.

9. Dept of Homeland Scty. / State Department
11/2/04 PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENT
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE
Office of the Spokesman
This information is current as of today, Tue Nov 02 2004 03:24:57 GMT-0800.
PHILIPPINES
November 1, 2004
This Public Announcement is being issued to remind travelers of ongoing security concerns in the Philippines. It supersedes the Public Announcement issued April 28, 2004, and expires on April 30, 2005.
The terrorist threat to Americans in the Philippines remains high, and the Embassy continues to receive reports of ongoing activities by known terrorist groups. In view of a number of security-related incidents and the possibility of future terrorist attacks, and other violence or criminal activity, Americans traveling to or residing in the Philippines are urged to exercise caution and maintain heightened security awareness. Extremist groups present in Southeast Asia, such as Jemaah Islamiyah, have demonstrated transnational capabilities to carry out attacks against locations where Westerners congregate. Terrorist groups do not distinguish between official and civilian targets. U.S. citizens are urged to defer non-essential travel to central, southern, and western Mindanao, and the islands of Basilan, Tawi-Tawi, and Jolo, located in the Sulu archipelago in the southwest of the Philippines, due to military operations against kidnappings and other criminal activity. As a precaution, the U.S. Government carefully reviews all travel by official personnel to Mindanao and the Sulu archipelago, and emergency services to U.S. citizens in some of these areas may be limited.

10. Suspicious Domestic Incidents Not Currently Linked to Specific Terrorism Attempts
11/04/04 Nothing significant to report.